Market Snapshot
Global and Asian stock indices hit new records even as oil edged higher amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the US, Israel and Iran could reach a lasting agreement to end the fighting. The crypto market opened the new week in the green after dropping 2.9% over the prior seven days.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
Macro data releases will be dominated by the latest euro area inflation figures and US employment data reports, including JOLTS, ADP and NFP.
Recap
- US President Donald Trump intensified his support for federally regulated prediction markets after he backed the CFTC's authority over the sector while attacking state regulators on his personal social media platform.
- Prediction market operator Kalshi and crypto exchange operator Coinbase were approved by regulators to offer perpetual contracts in the US domestic market. Hyperliquid, an offshore perpetual futures exchange, continued pushing beyond traditional crypto trading after it launched macro-focused prediction markets, helping drive another surge in valuation.
- The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved Nasdaq's proposal for cash-settled Bitcoin index options in another step toward expanding institutional crypto derivatives markets.
- Meanwhile, Brazil moved to tighten oversight of stablecoin use.
- The Sui Network suffered a more than six-hour outage, its second multi-hour crash since January, freezing hundreds of millions of dollars in decentralized applications. Euro stablecoin issuer StablR lost €13.5mn after its stablecoin briefly depegged in an apparent multisig attack in the latest reminder of operational risks facing digital asset infrastructure providers.
- Crypto exchange HTX was sanctioned by UK authorities as part of a broader crackdown tied to Russia-related financial activity.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered a hawkish speech that rattled expectations for near-term US rate cuts as markets reassessed the trajectory of monetary policy.
- Strategy shares rose after the CFTC shifted its approach to crypto futures markets, while questions remained around the company's financing strategy and continued Bitcoin purchases.
- Market maker Wintermute expanded its presence in prediction markets as legal disputes over event contracts continued to unfold.
Top Gainers
- H (Humanity) +103%
- XLM (Stellar) +76%
- Binance Life 币安人生 (币安人生) +41%
Top Losers
- ONDO (Ondo) -17%
- ZEC (Zcash) -14%
- SUI (Sui) -13%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.48tn (−3.5% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.3% (vs 60.2% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 34/100 (vs 40 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 37/100 (vs 36 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.41bn (vs -$1.26bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$255mn (vs -$216mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $73,715 (-2.72%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,998 (-1.14%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 1 June
Economic data
10:00 Euro area, unemployment rate: Eurostat publishes unemployment figures for April. Economists polled by Reuters expect the print to be 6.2%, flat from March.
Tuesday 2 June
Economic data
10:00 Euro area, HICP Flash: The euro area reports initial inflation figures for May. Inflation measures price stability, directly aligning with the European Central Bank's (ECB) mandate. Deviations from the ECB's inflation target may guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. Economists expect a reading of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in April.
15:00 US JOLTS job openings: The US publishes jobs turnover data for April. For comparison, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 6.86mn job openings in March, down from the revised 6.9mn from the month before.
Wednesday 3 June
Economic data
13:15 US ADP employment data: The US publishes ADP private employment data for May. The last report showed 109,000 jobs added in April, beating forecasts of 99,000.
19:00 The US Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book. The report provides qualitative insight into economic conditions across regions ahead of policy decisions. Last week, the US Q1 GDP was revised downwards from 2.0% to 1.6% on the back of weaker-than-estimated investment and consumer spending figures.
Thursday 4 June
Economic data
13:30 US unemployment: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 30 May follow a small increase of 5,000 claims to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 in the week ending 23 May.
Friday 5 June
Economic data
13:30 US Non-Farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish NFP data and the unemployment rate for May. Economists polled by Reuters expect the NFP figure to be 96,000, below April's 115,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.3%.
