Hyperliquid has entered the macroeconomic prediction market, launching event contracts on US inflation data and Federal Reserve rate decisions through its HIP-4 framework, putting it in direct competition with Polymarket in one of the fastest-growing segments of crypto.
Hyperliquid Launches Macro Prediction Markets as Valuation Surges
26 May 2026 - 11:20 CEST
By Sandmark staff
The platform's inaugural contracts allow users to wager USDC on the May 2026 annual CPI figure and the outcome of the June Fed rate decision. Polymarket currently hosts an equivalent inflation market, and the two platforms now offer directly comparable products on the same underlying events.
The move extends Hyperliquid's rapid expansion beyond perpetual futures into pre-IPO contracts, tokenized real-world assets, ETFs and now event-based macro trading, all running on a unified margin system on its own Layer-1 blockchain.
Valuation reaches TradFi territory
The launch comes as a FalconX report placed Hyperliquid's valuation multiples broadly in line with those of Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and CME Group, the world's largest futures exchange operator.
HYPE currently trades at approximately 26x market cap-to-revenue, FalconX said, compared with ICE and CME at around 24x and 26x earnings multiples, respectively.
The report argues the repricing reflects growing investor conviction that Hyperliquid is evolving from a crypto-native perpetuals venue into a broader multi-asset trading platform with structural similarities to incumbent exchange operators.
Wall Street pressure mounts
FalconX noted that CME and ICE have raised concerns with regulators over potential manipulation risks tied to Hyperliquid's markets, even as both firms expand their own 24/7 crypto product offerings. The report framed the dynamic as an incumbents-versus-challengers tension that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore at the institutional level.
A recently announced partnership between Hyperliquid, Coinbase and Circle on a new aligned quote asset framework could generate up to $160mn in annualized protocol revenue, according to FalconX estimates, adding a stablecoin-linked revenue stream that further closes the gap with traditional exchange business models.
The combination of macro prediction markets, RWA perpetuals and institutional partnerships positions Hyperliquid less as a niche venue and more as emerging exchange infrastructure competing across multiple asset classes simultaneously.
