Market Snapshot
Bitcoin slipped early on Monday (13 Jul) amid declines in equities and bonds. South Korea's Kospi benchmark of stocks slumped more than 8%. The mini sell-off was likely influenced by a return to the inflationary scenario produced by energy price hikes. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran in recent days have shown that the Strait of Hormuz supply crunch continues to drive short-term trading movements.
Macro Summary
The week ahead will be shaped by data releases from China, Fed chair Kevin Warsh's testimony, and ongoing military actions in the Middle East.
Geopolitics cannot be ignored. The weekend saw a deterioration of security in the Middle East, with the US and Iran trading blows. The two sides contested the opening status of the Strait of Hormuz with a confusing flurry of opposing communications. Crude oil futures were up in the Asian trading session on Monday.
On the macro data side, the week will be shaped by data releases including the latest trade balance, GDP and financing figures from China. Elsewhere, in the US, the Fed will publish its Beige Book and June's retail figures, while Eurostat will confirm final euro area inflation data for June.
Wall Street banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reporting second-quarter earnings.
Recap
- Strategy sold $216mn of Bitcoin to fund shareholder dividends, deepening scrutiny of its treasury model as weaker crypto markets test whether Bitcoin-backed companies can keep raising capital without selling reserves.
- Stablecoins remained at the centre of the market structure debate. Circle came under fresh pressure over its handling of stolen USDC recovery, while its relationship with Coinbase faced renewed focus ahead of a key renegotiation. At the same time, Circle expanded USDC rails through BNY and Standard Chartered, even as Open USD’s partner list masked a narrower challenge to Circle’s issuance lead.
- The institutional payments push also gathered pace as Swift opened a blockchain ledger for bank pilots focused on 24/7 payments, underscoring how traditional financial infrastructure providers are moving closer to tokenized settlement.
- In Europe, lawmakers cleared the way for digital euro negotiations, keeping public-sector digital money on the policy agenda as private stablecoin issuers and bank-led settlement networks compete for influence. The EU's MiCA regulatory regime has attracted payments infrastructure firm Ripple, while rejecting exchange operator Binance.
- The political backdrop grew more complicated on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump’s crypto ties and earnings from his family’s businesses clouded the prospects for the CLARITY Act. Nigel Farage, the leader of minor populist party Reform UK, resigned his parliamentary seat over a £5mn gift from an investor reportedly linked to Tether as new donation rules threatened to catch the party’s overseas crypto backers. Farage seems intent on winning back the seat in a by-election.
- The shift into digital assets continued to reach even the most cautious corners of traditional finance, with crypto-sceptic asset manager Vanguard seeking a digital assets head to build an in-house strategy.
- DeFi infrastructure is being pulled towards mainstream finance. Aave opened its stablecoin yield technology to external users, positioning decentralized lending tools for broader institutional and fintech adoption.
- Crypto’s policy and technology agenda also broadened beyond market plumbing. Andreessen Horowitz co-founder Marc Andreessen landed a Fed advisory perch as AI investors weighed the case for rate cuts, linking Silicon Valley’s capital priorities more directly to monetary policy debates.
- BNB Chain laid out plans for AI-focused blockchain infrastructure, adding to the race among crypto networks to position themselves as rails for artificial intelligence applications.
Top Gainers
- DEXE (DeXe) +99%
- PYTH (Pyth Network) +19%
- ARB (Arbitrum) +16%
Top Losers
- PI (Pi) -20%
- BONK (Bonk) -19%
- JUP (Jupiter) -17%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.19tn (-0.45% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 58.1% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 29/100 (vs 27 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 56/100 (vs 51 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$197.4mn (vs -$526.1mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$84.3mn (vs -$13.7mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $64,020 (+3.8%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,794 (+5.3%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 13 July
Crypto event (conference)
WebX Tokyo opens, running through Tuesday.
Tuesday 14 July
Economic data
China trade balance, figures for June. China’s trade balance is one of the most talked-about global data points as it reflects the strength of global demand and often raises discussions about China’s central role in global supply chains and the sustainability of its economic model. Economists polled by Reuters expect the trade surplus to be $120bn in June, up from $105bn in May.
12:30 US inflation: June's CPI inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (the other being employment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect that prices gained 0.2% in June from a month earlier.
Central banks
14:00 Fed updates: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver testimony on monetary policy before Congress. The Federal Reserve Board has also submitted a written Monetary Policy Report to Congress on the "the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future."
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 92.5bn PUMP (~23.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $135.0mn. The cliff-style release is primarily allocated to the team ($73.1mn), existing investors ($47.5mn), and community & ecosystem initiatives ($14.6mn), representing a significant supply event that could generate substantial short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 15 July
Economic data
02:00 China GDP: Economists surveyed by Reuters expect China's Q2 GDP growth to be 4.4%, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter. According to ING, a bank, the "domestic activity data is likely to remain sluggish, with retail sales falling -0.2% YoY, fixed-asset investment down -5.2% YoY ytd."
Crypto event (Dividend)
- Strategy Inc. (STRC) First Semi-Monthly Dividend Payout: STRC holders receive the first dividend under the new twice-monthly distribution schedule on July 15, a key milestone in Strategy's preferred equity programme designed to provide recurring Bitcoin-linked yield.
13:45 Bank of Canada rate decision. Investors expect that the central bank will keep rates at 2.25% as core inflation remains close to 2%.
19:00 Beige Book: The Fed-issued book provides qualitative insight into economic conditions across regions ahead of policy decisions.
Thursday 16 July
Economic data
12:30 US retail sales: the U.S. Census Bureau publishes figures for June. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of the US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure, and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have grown by 0.3% in June, down from 0.9% in May.
Friday 17 July
Economic data
09:00 Euro area HICP final: The euro area reports final inflation estimates for June, measuring price stability in line with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target of 2% guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. The earlier flash reading of inflation in June was 2.8%, down from 3.2% in May.
China Total Social Financing, M2 money supply, new loans: China publishes state financing statistics for June, capturing overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance, and broader global risk sentiment. Total social financing is expected to be ¥3,500bn ($520bn) in June, up from the ¥2,030bn ($300bn) in May, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~6.1% of circulating supply), worth roughly $104.0mn. The cliff-style release is primarily allocated to the Treasury ($75.6mn) and Airdrop ($28.2mn), introducing a meaningful amount of new supply that could generate moderate short-term selling pressure.
