Market Snapshot
As negotiations over a lasting end to hostilities in the Middle East formally began, assets such as Brent Crude retraced to levels not seen since early March, and closed out the shortened US trading week below $80. Asian markets continued their strong year, with the Nikkei of Japan and KOSPI of Korea now trading at record highs. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivered no surprises in his first rates announcement, keeping rates on hold while raising the institution's inflation forecasts. Bitcoin maintained its somewhat muted month, briefly breaking through $67,000 before pulling back to its seemingly favoured level around $63,300.
Macro Summary
On the macro front, a relatively quiet week is expected after central banks and the G7 meeting dominated the agenda last week. On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will also continue to be shaped by the military escalation in the Middle East. "Encouraging progress" was made in peace talks as US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with mediators, met over the weekend in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.
Scheduled macro data releases include the latest inflation prints from the US, Japan and Canada, and the China benchmark interest rate decision.
Recap
- Tokenized stocks hit record volume after demand for blockchain-based SpaceX exposure drove a surge in onchain equity trading, with Solana accounting for the vast majority of activity.
- Strategy's STRC preferred shares fell further below par, increasing pressure on the company’s Bitcoin-backed financing model as investors demanded higher yields and questioned the durability of its capital structure.
- CME Group sued to overturn the CFTC’s approval of US-regulated crypto perpetual futures, potentially delaying a fast-growing domestic perps market just as Kalshi, Coinbase and Kraken move into the sector.
- Coinbase moved further beyond crypto after announcing plans to offer one-for-one backed tokenized US stocks to eligible non-US users, including dividend payments and shareholder rights onchain.
- The CFTC permanently barred former Celsius chief executive Alexander Mashinsky from regulated markets, closing its civil case after his criminal conviction and 12-year prison sentence over the lender’s collapse.
- US lawmakers moved to pause Federal Reserve retail CBDC issuance through the latest housing bill until the end of 2030, giving stablecoin issuers more breathing room against a potential state-backed digital dollar.
- Hyperliquid's HYPE token rallied to record highs as the exchange expanded beyond crypto into broader 24/7 markets, strengthening its position in perpetual futures and prediction-style trading.
- A newly funded Polymarket account placed a $9mn winning bet on Spain underperforming minutes before kickoff against Cape Verde, with onchain flows showing funds staged weeks in advance, activated shortly before the match and then routed back through the same wallet network after the market resolved.
- Ether exchange reserves fell to decade lows even as network activity hit records, highlighting a growing disconnect between Ethereum usage and ETH price performance as post-Dencun fee burns weaken the token’s value-accrual model.
Top Gainers
- AERO (Aerodrome Finance) +35%
- JUP (Jupiter) +19%
- WLD (Worldcoin) +15%
Top Losers
- BEAT (Audiera) -67%
- H (Humanity) -57%
- DEXE (DeXe) -20%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.17tn (-3.1% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.3% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 21/100 (vs 23 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 46/100 (vs 49 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$227.5mn (vs -$319mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$10mn (vs –14.8mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $62,985 (-1.1%) (as at Thursday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,706 (+2.5%) (as at Thursday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 22 June
Central banks
01:00 China loan prime rate: Beijing will report the new monthly LPR – the country’s benchmark lending rate – for June. China has left key lending rates unchanged for a year.
Economic data
12:30 Canada, CPI. Statistics Canada will provide inflation figures for May. Inflation was 2.8% in April, up from 2.4% in March. The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% in June, citing increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains at a time when the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.
Tuesday 23 June
Central banks
23:50 Bank of Japan: The BoJ releases a summary of opinions by board members from its latest policy meeting, in which it voted to hike rates by 25 basis points to 1.0%.
Crypto event (conference)
- The first day of the Point Zero Forum in Zurich, one of the leading gatherings for digital assets, stablecoins, tokenization and financial infrastructure, bringing together regulators, central banks, asset managers, fintechs, and crypto-native firms.
- The first day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting ("Summer Davos") in Dalian, China, held under the theme "Innovating at Scale."
Wednesday 24 June
Crypto event (conference)
- The second day of the Point Zero Forum in Zurich.
- The second day of Summer Davos in Dalian.
Thursday 25 June
Economic data
12:30 US PCE Inflation: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation for May. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to grow by 4.1% on a yearly basis in May, up from 3.8% in April. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released earlier showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 4.2% in May.
12:30 US Q1 GDP: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports the final GDP Q1 estimate. The second reading showed the US expanding at 1.6%, driven by investment, exports, consumer spending and government spending. The second Q1 reading was up from 0.5% in Q4.
23:30 Japan CPI: Japan publishes CPI price data for June, of which the Tokyo CPI is expected to be the most impactful. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.6% in June, up from 1.3% in May.
Crypto event (conference)
- The third and last day of the Point Zero Forum in Zurich.
- The third and last day of Summer Davos in Dalian.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Humanity Protocol (H) Token Unlock: 297.0mn H (~16.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $65mn. The cliff-style release spans early contributors, the ecosystem fund and investors, and could create meaningful short-term selling pressure.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Plasma (XPL) Token Unlock: 88.9mn XPL (~4.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $8.3mn. The release is entirely allocated to ecosystem and growth initiatives, introducing a moderate amount of new supply into circulation.
Friday 26 June
Crypto event (network upgrade)
- Coinbase's Layer-2 network will activate the Beryl hard fork on the mainnet, introducing the B20 native token standard, an ERC-20 compliant protocol designed for stablecoin, RWA and long-tail token issuers with a built-in compliance toolkit.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Sahara AI (SAHARA) Token Unlock: 2.2bn SAHARA (~64% of circulating supply), worth roughly $29.5mn. The release spans ecosystem development, community incentives, early backers and core contributors. Given its size relative to circulating supply, it counts as one of the week's most significant dilution events and may generate substantial short-term supply pressure.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Jupiter (JUP) Token Unlock: 53.5mn JUP (~1.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $9.8mn. The release is allocated to the team and represents a relatively limited increase in circulating supply.
Sunday 28 June
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock: 9.9mn HYPE (~4.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $662mn. The release is allocated to current and future core contributors. While sizeable in dollar terms, previous contributor unlocks have not resulted in significant spot selling, suggesting limited immediate market impact unless holder behaviour changes materially.
