Market Snapshot
The total value of the crypto market hit its lowest level since October 2024 last week, recovering only partially on Sunday. The weekly drop was the steepest in 15 months – a stark contrast to broader markets, in which the MSCI World Index, a gauge of large and mid-cap companies across developed markets, fell just over 2%. The index is up 8.1% so far in 2026, while crypto is down 27%. The divergence has investors asking whether something's uniquely wrong with digital assets, or whether they're over-reacting to concerns affecting other markets?
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the war in the Middle East. Benchmark Brent Crude rose early on Monday after Iran and Israel exchanged missiles, undermining the ceasefire arrangement.
In the US, various state primary elections are taking place to determine which candidates will run in the upcoming midterm elections. The FIFA World Cup, co-hosted with Canada and Mexico, kicks off on 11 Jun, creating a potential stage for political drama and a sports betting frenzy.
US inflation will feature in the week's macro data releases, which also include a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and figures on financing conditions in Japan and China.
Recap
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak in late May, even as a $1.29bn off-exchange IBIT block trade suggested institutional Bitcoin interest remained alive beneath visible flow data.
- In a more positive step for the original cryptocurrency, Coinbase and Better Home & Finance closed the first US Bitcoin-backed mortgage deal.
- Mastercard moved stablecoins into core card settlement by allowing issuers and acquirers to settle transactions onchain, while Tether pushed tokenized gold further into everyday payments through a Visa card that rewards users in XAU₮.
- Polymarket resolved a disputed market on whether Strategy sold Bitcoin as "No", despite a later SEC filing confirming the company sold 32 BTC, raising fresh questions over timing, oracle governance and contract design in prediction markets.
- Galaxy Digital opened an institutional prediction markets desk with a $10mn CLARITY Act-linked trade for Arca, marking another step in the shift of event contracts from crypto-native venues toward hedge fund and institutional trading desks.
- It wasn't a great week for crypto in the UK. The Financial Conduct Authority warned Premier League clubs over sponsorship deals with unauthorized crypto firms. Crypto-linked donors drew public scrutiny as they deepened their influence in UK politics. Reform UK, a very small parliamentary party that's become more popular since the last election, according to polls, reportedly received 44% of all political donations in the first quarter in crypto.
- As the industry ramps up its political spending ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in the US, a new political action committee in Washington is aimed at protecting builders from liability when decentralized software is misused.
- The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s largest crypto exchange Nobitex, accusing it of helping the Iranian regime move funds despite international sanctions and adding several exchange leaders to OFAC's sanctions list.
- Mt Gox moved more than 10,400 BTC for the first time in six months, reviving attention on dormant creditor-linked holdings even though there was no immediate evidence the coins were being sent to exchanges.
Top Gainers
- BEAT (Audiera) +213%
- SIREN (siren) +150%
- H (Humanity) +40%
Top Losers
- ADA (Cardano) -30%
- APT (Aptos) -29%
- SEI (Sei) -27%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.17tn (−14.3% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.3% (vs 59.3% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 15/100 (vs 34 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 46/100 (vs 37 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.72bn (vs -$1.41bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$174mn (vs -$255mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $60,515 (-17.9%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,579 (-21.0%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 8 June
Economic data
- 00:50 Japan GDP: The fourth-largest economy publishes revised Q1 GDP figures. Its first data release showed that GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, beating the consensus estimate of 1.7%. Solid private consumption and resilient exports drove the growth.
Crypto event (market structure)
- Coinbase (COIN) will launch its first suite of perpetual stock index futures under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) framework, offering four thematic contracts that provide regulated exposure to equity market sectors through perpetual futures.
- CME Group is scheduled to launch Nasdaq CME Crypto Index futures, pending regulatory approval, further expanding the institutional toolkit for gaining exposure to the digital asset market.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Stable (STABLE) Token Unlock: 888.9mn STABLE (~3.8% of circulating supply), worth roughly $32.70mn. The cliff-style release is fully allocated to the ecosystem and community, introducing a significant amount of new supply into circulation.
Tuesday 9 June
Economic data
00:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for May: Japan's M2 is a proxy for global liquidity because yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
China trade balance, figures for May. China's trade balance is one of the most talked-about global data points as it reflects the strength of global demand and often raises discussions about China's central role in global supply chains and the sustainability of its economic model. Economists polled by Reuters expect the trade surplus to be $91bn in May, up from $85bn in April.
Wednesday 10 June
Economic data
13:30 US CPI: May inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (the other being employment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 0.3% in May from a month earlier.
Central banks
13:15 Euro area ECB benchmark rate: The ECB board votes on main refinancing rates. Market-implied probabilities suggest a hike of 25 basis points from 2.0% to 2.25%. Inflation jumped to 3.2% in April – up from 1.9% in February as the impact of the war in the Middle East and the subsequent jump in energy prices takes its toll.
Thursday 11 June
Economic data
13:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 6 Jun follow a small increase of 13,000 in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 in the week ending 30 May.
17:00 US Quarterly Financial Accounts: The Federal Reserve issues the statements.
Friday 12 June
Economic data
- China Total Social Financing, M2 money supply, new loans: China publishes state financing statistics for May, capturing overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance, and broader global risk sentiment. Total social financing is expected to be ¥1,885bn ($280bn) in May, up from the ¥620bn ($90bn) in April, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Stocks
- According to reports, SpaceX is expected to price its initial public offering on 11 Jun ahead of a Nasdaq listing on 12 Jun under the ticker SPCX, in what could become one of the largest public offerings in recent years.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.3mn APT (~1.4% of circulating supply), worth roughly $7.89mn. The cliff-style release spans core contributors & founders, ecosystem funds, and private investors, introducing additional supply into circulation.
Sunday 14 June
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~2.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $14.95mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to community and ecosystem initiatives, introducing additional supply into circulation.
(Note: the Market Snapshot was amended to compare the year-to-date performance of +8.1% in the MSCI World Index with the year-to-date crypto market total value decline of -27%. Previously, the +24% 12-month performance in the MSCI World Index was referenced).
