This Week #27 – Monday 6 July

Market Snapshot

Crypto assets nudged higher after Bitcoin had slumped to a 21-month low in the prior week. The total market capitalization gained almost 7% to about $2.2tn over the past seven days, while equities also rose. Oil futures stayed in the red as tensions in the Middle East eased, alleviating supply concerns. US corporate earnings season kicks off this week, offering a first read on how companies fared in economies squeezed by inflation.

Macro Summary

On the macro front, the week is expected to be relatively quiet with few data releases and no major macro events scheduled. The data calendar will include euro area retail sales and Japan's latest monetary statistics. The Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report while the FOMC will publish minutes from its latest meeting. 

The agenda for the 2026 NATO Summit hosted by Türkiye in Ankara on 7-8 Jul includes defence investment and support for Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape will also continue to be shaped by the conflict in and around Iran. 

Recap

• Crypto markets shed more than $1tn in the first half of the year, even as Wall Street continued building blockchain infrastructure, highlighting the gap between institutional adoption and weak token market performance. 
• Europe’s MiCA regulatory deadline left most crypto firms without a licence, while Binance’s EU pullback opened the door for regulated rivals seeking to gain share under the bloc’s new crypto rulebook. 
• In the US, the SEC signalled an ETF review reset after a series of crypto court losses, suggesting the agency may recalibrate how it handles digital asset fund applications under growing legal and market pressure. 
• Donald Trump’s crypto-related income topped $1.4bn in his 2025 financial disclosure, intensifying scrutiny of the president’s digital asset interests as his administration pushes a more industry-friendly policy agenda. 
• Digital asset treasury companies diverged sharply during the first-half market slump, with some Bitcoin-heavy vehicles holding up while others suffered pressure from equity market investors. 
• Robinhood, a trading platform that was initially established for conventional assets, broadened its crypto push with a new blockchain network, AI trading tools and tokenized stocks. Its shares advanced amid the deeper move into digital asset infrastructure. 
• Open USD’s launch sparked debate over Circle’s stablecoin lead, as new entrants challenge USDC’s position in regulated dollar tokens and compete for distribution across crypto and fintech markets. 
• Crédit Agricole joined the euro stablecoin race with EURXT, adding another major European banking group to the push for regulated euro-pegged digital money. 
• Edel Finance paused lending after a DeFi exploit briefly inflated a tokenized Google stock by 7,700%, exposing operational risks in tokenized equity markets as synthetic and onchain stock products expand. 

Top Gainers

• M (MemeCore) +111%
• LIT (Lighter) +43%
• ADA (Cardano) +32%

Top Losers

• JTO (Jito) -12%
• VVV (Venice Token) -11%
• PI (Pi) -8.3%

Market Metrics

• Total Market Cap: $2.2tn (6.8% vs last week)
• BTC Dominance: 58.1% (vs 58% last week)
• Fear and Greed Index: 27/100 (vs 16 last week)
• Alt Season Index: 51/100 (vs 49 last week)

ETF Flows

• BTC (Bitcoin): -$526.1mn (vs -$1.79bn previous week)
• ETH (Ether): -$13.7mn (vs -$273.5mn previous week)

Futures (CME)

• BTC (Bitcoin): $61,655 (+2.8%) (as at Thursday close)
• ETH (Ether): $1,704.5 (+7.9%) (as at Thursday close)

This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):

Monday 6 July

Economic data 

• 09:00 euro area retail sales: Eurostat publishes the latest retail sales figures for the euro area in May. Consumers increased their spending in April by 1% compared with the prior year. However, trade was down by 0.4% on a monthly basis, burdened by the Middle East conflict's impact on increasing fuel costs.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~3.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $25.8mn. The cliff-style release spans ecosystem development, core contributors, investors, and the foundation. While smaller than previous months in dollar terms, it still introduces a meaningful amount of new supply that could create moderate short-term selling pressure. 

Tuesday 7 July

Government

• The NATO Summit begins in Ankara and runs through 8 July. Delegates include the 32 members of NATO and invited guests such as the President of Ukraine.

Central banks 

• 09:30 The Bank of England publishes its Financial Stability Report. 

Wednesday 8 July

Economic data 

• 23:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for June: Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity because yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.   

Central banks 

• 18:00 Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes: the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes from the 16-17 June policy meeting when policymakers decided to keep rates on hold in the target range 3.50%-3.75%.      

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Stable (STABLE) Token Unlock: 888.9mn STABLE (~3.7% of circulating supply), worth roughly $31.5mn. The entire cliff unlock is allocated to the ecosystem & community, representing a meaningful increase in circulating supply that may weigh on price in the near term. 

Thursday 9 July

Economic data 

• 12:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 4 Jul follow a small decrease of 1,000 in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 in the week ending 27 Jun.