Market Snapshot
The crypto market is edging higher as oil extends losses linked to a more credible-looking interim peace arrangement between the US and Iran. Assets have been swinging between short-term gains and losses for weeks on opaque, even unreliable, statements from the governments. Investors are also set to take a cue from the central banks and economic data this week.
Macro Summary
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise rates while the US Federal Reserve will hold its first meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
Scheduled macro data releases include the latest US retail sales and inflation figures for the UK, Japan and the euro area.
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape has been influenced by progress towards a US-Iran agreement to end the three-and-a-half-month conflict. Following Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif's 12 Jun announcement that a final agreed text had been reached, a signing ceremony is reportedly being planned in Geneva, close to the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France. Key questions include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and the framework's durability. The G7 agenda includes peace and security for Ukraine and Europe, the Middle East, economic growth and the future of AI.
Recap
- It was an extraordinary week for the public capital markets and digital asset deals, as well as policy and regulation.
- SpaceX raised $75bn from selling shares to the public for the first time and closed the week valued at more than $2tn. Crypto exchanges struggled to fulfil pre-IPO orders for tokenized claims to the stock, resulting in Binance and Bybit cancelling campaigns. Other venues offered synthetic SpaceX products such as perpetual futures that allowed traders to speculate on the company’s valuation without any claim to the underlying shares.
- In other transactions:
- Blockchain-based credit network Morpho raised $175mn while Mexican payments company Clip secured $500mn at a valuation above $2.5bn in two separate deals.
- Digital Asset raised $355mn in a funding round led by a16z crypto to expand its Canton Network (CCUSD).
- Keel Infrastructure (KEEL), which has diversified its business model from Bitcoin mining to include AI infrastructure, raised $458mn through a convertible senior notes offering.
- Tether, which has made a fortune from creating stablecoins, anchored a Series C investment round of up to $1.4bn for German humanoid robot maker NEURA Robotics.
- Japan-based Metaplanet, a Bitcoin stockpiler, said it agreed to acquire Siiibo Securities, an online corporate bond platform.
- Michael Saylor, chair of the largest Bitcoin digital asset treasury (DAT) firm Strategy Inc., declared that "confidence in Ethereum has collapsed." His firm resumed Bitcoin purchases and reaffirmed its plan to keep on accumulating the original cryptocurrency, which had lost value following Strategy’s sale of 32 bitcoins in late May.
- Shares in Avalanche Treasury Co. (AVAT), a newcomer DAT for the Avalanche blockchain's AVAX token, sank during their early days on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The original AVAX One Technology (AVX) treasury has struggled to win over equity investors despite a highly publicized campaign in the second half of 2025. The stock did gain on 12 Jun after the company announced a reverse stock split.
- In the US, where lawmakers are struggling to advance a major new crypto market structure law, a number of states are moving to ban cryptocurrency ATMs. House Republican lawmakers on 9 Jun introduced a sweeping package of digital asset tax legislation with proposals ranging from staking and mining reforms to stablecoin payments, crypto lending and tax compliance.
- The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a new regulatory framework for prediction markets – platforms which state gaming regulators and casino groups have described as venues for gambling.
- The Japanese legislature’s lower house passed a bill that would shift crypto to securities law, treating tokens as financial instruments alongside stocks and bonds.
- Hungary, under a new government following elections in April, said it would decriminalize crypto trading and lift restrictions on crypto services.
- While the global AI spotlight remains on box office IPOs and a US government ban on non-US citizens accessing Anthropic’s most powerful publicly available models, exchanges across digital and conventional markets continued to welcome the agentic economy. Most recently, Coinbase followed Robinhood in opening up exchange accounts to AI agents.
Top Gainers
- SKYAI (SKYAI) +70%
- BEAT (Audiera) +65%
- TAO (Bittensor) +27%
Top Losers
- H (Humanity) -38%
- 币安人生 (币安人生) -19%
- DEXE (DeXe) -9.4%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.24tn (+ 3.2% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 58.3% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 23/100 (vs 15 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 49/100 (vs 46 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$319mn (vs -$1.72bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$10mn (vs -$174mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $63,660 (+5.2%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,665 (+5.5%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 15 June
Crypto event (conference)
FIA International Derivatives Expo (IDX) begins in London.
Tuesday 16 June
Central banks
Bank of Japan Rate Decision: The BoJ announces its key benchmark rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoJ to hike its benchmark interest rate to 1.00%. Three of nine members of the policy board already backed a hike in April, with two more aligning since.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/3 of IDX in London.
- First day of DappCon, an Ethereum-focused developer conference, in Berlin.
Wednesday 17 June
Economic data
06:00 UK CPI: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release May inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters expect 3.0% for May, compared with April's actual reading of 2.8%.
09:00 Euro area final HICP: The euro area reports final inflation estimates for May, measuring price stability in line with the ECB’s mandate. The earlier flash reading was 3.2%, up from 3.0% in April. Deviations from the ECB’s target of 2% guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures.
12:30 US retail sales: the US Census Bureau publishes figures for May. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of the US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to grow 0.5% in May, the same as April's increase.
Central banks
18:00 (14:00 ET) US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and the newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference (18:30). Policymakers will continue to assess the risks of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on inflation.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~6.1% of circulating supply), worth roughly $104mn. The cliff-style release includes a significant airdrop allocation, which may introduce notable short-term selling pressure as recipients distribute tokens into the market.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/3 of IDX in London.
- Day 2/2 of DappCon in Berlin.
Thursday 18 June
Economic data
06:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate: the UK publishes employment statistics for April. Economists expect no change from the 5.0% reported for March.
23:30 Japan CPI: Japan publishes its key inflation indicator for May. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.4% in May, in line with April's reading.
Central banks
11:00 Bank of England (BoE) rate decision: Economists polled by Reuters expect rates to be held at 3.75% as inflation continues to be well above the BoE’s target. Along with other central banks, the BoE will remain sensitive to developments in the conflict in the Middle East.
Saturday 20 June
Crypto event (token unlock)
- LayerZero (ZRO) Token Unlock: 25.7mn ZRO (~10.2% of circulating supply), worth roughly $23.35mn. The cliff-style release is primarily allocated to strategic partners and core contributors, introducing a significant amount of new supply into circulation.
Sunday 21 June
Crypto event (token unlock)
- GateChain (GT) Token Unlock: 4.2mn GT (~3.9% of circulating supply), worth
roughly $27.26mn. The cliff-style release spans research & development,
community development, and foundation expansion allocations, introducing
notable new supply into circulation.
