Market Snapshot
Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low this week, briefly touching $58,257 before closing Friday at $59,940, as hotter-than-expected US inflation data triggered a fresh liquidation cascade and forced a broad repricing of the rate path. The Fear & Greed Index hit 16 – Extreme Fear and the deepest reading of the current correction – while total market cap dropped to $2.06tn, shedding 5.1% on the week. ETF outflows accelerated sharply, with Bitcoin funds recording $1.79bn of net withdrawals against just $227.5mn the previous week, and Ether funds losing $273.5mn as institutional risk appetite retreated across the board. BTC dominance held near 58%, with altcoins unable to find a footing as the macro backdrop turned more hawkish. The quarterly options expiry on 26 Jun resolved with spot pinned well below max pain at $74,000, leaving the market's most one-sided put book on record to settle deep in the money.
Macro Summary
On the macro front, a relatively active week ahead. The geopolitical landscape will continue to be shaped by the military escalation in the Middle East, as the US and Iran have agreed to "stand down" and halt the tit-for-tat attacks that continued over the weekend.
Scheduled macro data releases include the latest economic sentiment and inflation figures for the euro area and the latest US employment data, culminating in Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls print.
The ECB will hold its annual forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal from 29 Jun to 1 Jul. Speakers include Andrew Bailey, Piero Cipollone, Frank Elderson, Christine Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, Hyun Song Shin and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Recap
- Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low after hotter-than-expected US inflation data triggered another liquidation cascade, deepening pressure across crypto markets as traders repriced the path for interest rates.
- US Senate Democrats demanded hearings into a $500mn Trump family crypto deal, escalating scrutiny of political conflicts of interest as digital assets become more embedded in Washington.
- Cboe brought prediction market mechanics into listed options through new contracts tied to event-style outcomes, blurring the line between traditional derivatives and fast-growing prediction markets.
- Strategy shares continued to shrink as Bitcoin's pullback renewed concerns over STRC and the company's ability to keep funding Bitcoin purchases through preferred equity issuance.
- US lawmakers pressed the SEC for answers on AI-driven trading tools, warning that automated investing products could expose retail investors to new risks without clearer oversight.
- Long-time crypto critic Nouriel Roubini backed a tokenized asset project, marking a notable shift as traditional finance figures increasingly embrace blockchain-based versions of real-world assets while remaining sceptical of crypto speculation.
- China's mBridge CBDC platform settled $69bn over 18 months, according to a PBOC official, underscoring Beijing's continued push to expand cross-border digital currency infrastructure even as US lawmakers resist a retail CBDC.
- Ondo Finance started 24/7 minting and redemption for tokenized US stocks and ETFs, pushing onchain equities closer to crypto-style market hours as tokenized real-world asset infrastructure expands.
- Adam Back and Cantor Fitzgerald's planned Bitcoin treasury vehicle delayed its listing amid the crypto sell-off, highlighting how weaker market conditions are testing investor appetite for Bitcoin balance-sheet companies.
Top Gainers
- VELVET (Velvet) +297%
- DEXE (DeXe) +52%
- BEAT (Audiera) +50%
Top Losers
- M (MemeCore) -77%
- WLD (Worldcoin) -27%
- MNT (Mantle) -19%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.06tn (-5.1% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58% (vs 58.3% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 16/100 (vs 21 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 49/100 (vs 46 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.79bn (vs -$227.5mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$273.5mn (vs –$10mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $59,940 (-4.8%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,572 (-7.9%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 29 June
Economic data
09:00 Euro area economic sentiment: Eurostat publishes the latest release for economic conditions in June, including business climate, economic, industrial and services sentiment indicators, along with final consumer confidence figures. According to the Economic Bulletin published last week, the euro area's "short-term indicators of activity have declined since March, pointing to a weakening in consumption spending, deteriorating sentiment and lengthening supplier delivery times." Taken together, they point to war in the Middle East having an impact on both current and expected economic activity.
23:30 Japan jobs/applicants' ratio, unemployment rate: The Statistics Bureau publishes figures including the unemployment rate for May. Unemployment was 2.5% in May; economists polled by Reuters expect no change.
Crypto event (listing)
Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury company SharpLink will officially be added to the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 as part of FTSE Russell's annual index reconstitution.
Tuesday 30 June
Economic data
14:00 US JOLTS job openings: The US publishes jobs turnover data for May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.6mn job openings in April, up from the revised 6.9mn in March. Economists polled by Reuters forecast 7.28mn for May.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Sui (SUI) token unlock: 21.0mn SUI (~0.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $14.5mn. The cliff-style release spans the Series B round, community reserve and Mysten Labs Treasury. Given its small size relative to circulating supply, the unlock is unlikely to generate meaningful short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 1 July
Stock exchange closures
Canada Stock Exchange
09:00 ECB Forum panel, Sintra: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are among the speakers at the ECB's annual forum on central banking in Sintra, Portugal. Any signals on the rate path – particularly from Warsh following the hawkish June FOMC – will be closely watched by markets.
Economic data
08:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: The private payrolls estimate for June, forecast at 118,000 against May's 122,000, serves as a market preview for Thursday's official NFP print.
09:00 Euro area HICP flash estimate: The euro area reports flash inflation estimates for June, measuring price stability in line with the ECB's 2% mandate. The final reading of inflation in May was 3.2%; economists polled by Reuters forecast 3.0% for June.
Crypto event (regulatory)
From 1 Jul, the EU MiCA transition period officially ends. Crypto firms without a MiCA licence can no longer legally serve EU clients. The deadline is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, with licensed providers gaining market share as unlicensed platforms either exit the market or transfer customers.
Crypto event (token unlock)
AudiEra (BEAT) token unlock: 21.3mn BEAT (~7.4% of circulating supply), worth roughly $52.2mn. The release is allocated across marketing and operations, community and foundation wallets, introducing a sizeable amount of new supply that could create notable short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 2 July
Economic data
12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate for June. Economists polled by Reuters expect 110,000 jobs added, below May's 172,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.3%.
Friday 3 July
Stock exchange closures
New York Stock Exchange
Crypto event (token unlock)
Kite AI (KITE) token unlock: 114.3mn KITE (~5.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $16.3mn. The cliff-style release spans ecosystem and community allocations alongside module incentives, introducing a meaningful increase in circulating supply that may weigh on price in the short term.
