US Jobs Market Holds Firm as Consumer Inflation Expectations Rise

At the same time, the unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.3%, in line with expectations.   

In April, employment continued to trend up in healthcare, transportation and warehousing and retail trade.  Jobs continued to decline in the federal government, according to the BLS. 

As a result of the declining immigration and natural working-age population, accompanied by the declining demand due to economic policy uncertainty, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly from the lows of 2022.   

ADP data 

April labour market gains also showed up in the ADP National Employment Report for private sector employment.   

ADP reported 109,000 jobs created in April, above analysts' expectations of 99,000. Most gains were made in small businesses (1–19 employees), which added 43,000 jobs, followed closely by large businesses (500+ employees), which added 42,000 jobs.   

In April, employment increased most in Education and health services (+61,000) and Trade, transportation and utilities (+25,000). Jobs were lost in Professional and business services (-8,000). 

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist of ADP, said in a statement that "small and large employers are hiring, but we're seeing softness in the middle. Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labour environment." 

JOLTS  

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 6.86mn job openings in March, down from the revised 6.9mn the month before but slightly above economist's expectations of 6.83mnn jobs gained. The number of job openings picked up in financial and insurance (+98,000) and private education and health services (+106,000), but fell in Professional and business services (-318,000). 

The number of separations increased over the month to 5.4mn at a rate of 3.4% while the number and rate of quits also changed a little at 3.2mn and 2.0%, signalling that employees are holding onto their jobs as economic uncertainty persists.    

The overall stronger employment figures will provide the Fed with some breathing room as it evaluates the impact of the war on the economy. 

Inflation expectations pick up 

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released the April 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed that household short-term inflation expectations increased while medium and long-term expectations remained flat. 

According to the survey, median inflation expectations for the year ahead increased by 0.2 percentage points to reach 3.6%.  

Policy and crypto implications 

The labour market and price data have direct influence over the "data driven" decisions of FOMC members, which influence global interest rates, capital flows, asset allocations and asset pricing, including cryptocurrencies.    

Relatively strong showing of the recent labour market data along with the threat of higher inflation due to the war in Iran and overall policy uncertainty. 

The war has already pushed yields higher for long-term government bonds as the market anticipates higher government expenditure, deficits and debt.