Recap
- Bitcoin flirted with $70,000 last week before the US attack on Iran drove risk assets back down, leaving the largest cryptocurrency fluctuating between $63k-$68k over the weekend. As the conflict widened, Asian stocks fell on Monday while oil surged and gold climbed above $5,400.
- Several Democrat lawmakers wrote a letter, dated 27 Feb, imploring Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate exchange operator Binance’s compliance system after recent media reports suggested funds had passed through its infrastructure on the way to Iranian-linked entities.
- Jane Street faced a lawsuit alleging insider trading tied to the Terra collapse, highlighting ongoing legal and compliance risks for major market makers in crypto events.
- Circle’s shares jumped as much as 36% as Q4 results topped estimates, indicating robust performance in the face of broader market uncertainty and reaffirming investor confidence in regulated issuers.
- Bitwise acquired ChorusOne as the crypto asset manager pushed to expand its institutional staking capabilities. Tether signalled a shift toward creator cash flow strategies with a $200mn WHOP investment, suggesting stablecoin issuers are exploring new revenue models beyond traditional issuance.
- Crypto.com moved closer to securing a US federal bank charter, a milestone that could materially enhance institutional trust and access to regulated payment rails. US TradFi giant Morgan Stanley applied to the OCC for permission to custody crypto assets under a bank charter.
Top Gainers
- DCR (Decred) +18%
- DOT (Polkadot) +17%
- NEAR (NEAR Protocol) +13%
Top Losers
- BCH (Bitcoin Cash) -23%
- ATOM (Cosmos) -20%
- PEPE (Pepe) -15%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.27tn (-1.7% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.0% (vs 58.4% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 15/100 (vs 14 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 33/100 (vs 32 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$787.4mn (vs -$315.9mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$80.5mn (vs -$123.3mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $65,880 (-2.87%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,928.5 (-2.16%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the US assault on Iran and the Iranian response across the Middle East. The conflict prompted a spike in oil as ship operators halted use of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are expected take place in Abu Dhabi in early March, according to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
On the data front the macro environment will be dominated by employment data from Japan, US and euro area. The euro area will also publish figures for GDP and inflation. In the US, the Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book while the U.S. Census Bureau will report retail sales figures for January.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 2 March
Crypto event (conference)
- The Web3 Banking Symposium in Zurich, convenes banking executives, digital asset leaders, and infrastructure providers to accelerate the integration of tokenization, digital assets, and decentralized technologies into mainstream financial services.
Economic data
- 00:30 - 00:50 Japan jobs/applicants ratio, unemployment rate, monetary base: the Statistics Bureau publishes employment figures, including the unemployment rate for January, compared with 2.6% in December. In addition, the Bank of Japan publishes monetary base data for February. The monetary base measures the total amount of money in circulation, including banknotes and coins, as well as current account deposits held by financial institutions at the Bank of Japan. It has been declining since early 2025 with the last reading in December a negative 9.28%.
Tuesday 3 March
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area HICP: Eurostat reports flash inflation figures for February. Economists expect the inflation figure to be 1.7%, unchanged from January. Deviations from the European Central Bank’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures.
Government
- UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers the 2026 Spring Statement alongside the latest economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Reeves will update on the progress of the two main fiscal rules: not to borrow to fund day-to-day public spending and to get government debt falling as a share of national income by the end of the current parliament. Investors may react to the statement as an expression of confidence (or lack thereof) in the management of the UK economy and its debt.
Wednesday 4 March
Central banks
- 19:00 US Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book. It provides qualitative insight into economic conditions ahead of policy decisions.
Thursday 5 March
Economic data
13:30 US unemployment claims: Weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ending 23 Feb follow a 6,000 increase in unemployment benefits in the previous week. The US labour market continues to provide a mixed picture with immigration shut down, population ageing and economic uncertainty forcing employers to be cautious with hiring.
Friday 6 March
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area GDP, employment: Eurostat publishes revised GDP figures for Q4. Economists polled by Reuters expect for output growth to be 0.3%, flat from Q3.
- 13:30 US Non-Farm payrolls, unemployment rate: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the jobs and unemployment rate for February. Christopher Waller, a Governor at the Fed, in a speech last week emphasized the importance of the labour market data release to the upcoming monetary policy decision: "Assuming underlying inflation continues to signal we are close to our 2 percent goal, the key to setting appropriate policy will be my view of the labor market. If the labor market data for February are consistent with the stronger job creation and low unemployment rate initially reported in January, indicating that downside risks to the labor market have diminished, it may be appropriate to hold the FOMC's policy rate at current levels and watch for continued progress on inflation and strength in the labor market."
- 13:30 US retail sales: the U.S. Census Bureau publishes figures for January. Retail sales are a key economic indicator as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of the US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure, and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have shrunk by 0.2% in January, down from being flat 0.0% in December.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~4.05% of circulating supply), worth roughly $35.68mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the significant size of the unlock relative to circulating supply.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Berachain (BERA) Token Unlock: 13.3mn BERA (~6.21% of circulating supply), worth roughly $8.19mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the significant size of the unlock relative to circulating supply.
Sunday 8 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Stable (STABLE) Token Unlock: 888.9mn STABLE (~4.94% of circulating supply), worth roughly $30.46mn. The cliff-style release is fully allocated to the ecosystem and community and may introduce short-term selling pressure given the significant size of the unlock relative to circulating supply.
