Recap
- The crypto market remained subdued and was little changed at the end of another tumultuous week in global financial markets. Oil spiked on Mon 9 Mar, surging above $100 for the first time since 2022, in response to the war in and around Iran, while stocks in Japan and Korea slid. Bitcoin hovered at about $67k after peaking close to $74k during the week.
- Hyperliquid drew attention for facilitating trading opportunities linked to assets that are normally not traded over the weekend when conventional exchanges are closed.
- On Friday, economists were surprised as the US reported it shed 92,000 jobs (non-farm payrolls) in February. January's unemployment rate increased.
- TradFi firms eyed the digital assets sector closely with US banking groups sounding the alarm after a state reserve bank granted exchange operator Kraken a payment account. Earlier in the week, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon suggested certain crypto firms "should be regulated like a bank." The New York Stock Exchange's parent company took a stake in crypto trading platform OKX.
- Pakistan followed the UAE in creating a digital assets regulator, PVARA, after completing related legislation. VARA, the Dubai equivalent, established in 2022, warned KuCoin and MEXC that they must stop operating exchange platforms in the emirate.
- Meanwhile, US regulators submitted early-stage crypto regulatory actions to the White House, moving a step closer to formal federal rulemaking. The SEC separately concluded a longstanding fraud case against Tron's Justin Sun, dropping several of its initial claims.
Top Gainers
- OKB (OKB) +29%
- PI (Pi) +26%
- DEXE (DeXe) +19%
Top Losers
- PIPPIN (pippin) -41%
- STABLE (Stable) -18%
- TRUMP (OFFICIAL TRUMP) -13%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.27tn (little changed vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.1% (vs 58.0 % last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 19/100 (vs 15 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 37/100 (vs 33 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$568.5mn (vs +$787.4mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$23.5mn (vs +$80.5mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $68,400 (+3.8%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,989 (+3.1%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped the US and Israel trading blows with Iran, which named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Some markets priced oil close to $120 on Monday 9 Mar before the commodity started to pare extraordinary gains.
On the data front, the macro environment this week will be shaped by US inflation and employment figures as well as Japan's and China’s monetary data.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants and staff will continue to observe a blackout period that limits public comments prior to next week’s rate-setting meeting.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 9 March
Economic data
23:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for February: Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity because yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
23:50 Japan, GDP Q4: The fourth-largest economy publishes revised fourth-quarter GDP figures. An initial reading showed that GDP grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis by 0.2%, sharply below economist expectations for a 1.6% expansion, after a tiny increase in private consumption.
Tuesday 10 March
Economic data
China trade balance: figures for February. China’s trade balance is one of the most talked-about global data points as it reflects the strength of global demand and often raises discussions about China’s central role in global supply chains and the sustainability of its economic model. Economists polled by Reuters expect trade surplus to be $181bn in February, up from $114bn in January.
China Total Social Financing, M2 money supply, new loans: China publishes state financing statistics for February, capturing overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance, and broader global risk sentiment. Economists polled by Reuters expect total social financing to be ¥2,030bn ($294bn) in February, down from the ¥7,220bn ($1,047bn) in January.
Wednesday 11 March
Economic data
13:30 US CPI inflation: February’s inflation figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may guide central bank decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 0.2% in February.
Thursday 12 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.3mn APT (~1.45% of circulating supply), worth roughly $11.35mn. The cliff-style release is distributed across Core Contributors & Founders, the Ecosystem Fund, Private Investors, and the Aptos Foundation, potentially introducing short-term selling pressure as multiple allocation categories enter circulation.
Friday 13 March
Economic data
13:30 US PCE Inflation: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation for January – another significant inflation reading before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets for an interest rate decision next week.
15:00 US JOLTS job openings: the US publishes jobs turnover data for January. Job openings dropped to 6.5mn in December, below economist expectations of 7.2mn. Uncertainty around policy, particularly tariffs, has made companies hesitant to expand payrolls, leading to growth without strong job creation. Artificial intelligence has also been cited by employers as a factor behind hiring freezes.
Saturday 14 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~2.82% of circulating supply), worth roughly $20.33mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to Community & Ecosystem Initiatives and may introduce short-term selling pressure as tokens enter broader circulation.
