Circle Shares Jump 36% as Q4 Results Top Estimates

The company posted Q4 revenue of $770mn and earnings per share of $0.43, outstripping Wall Street analyst estimates. Investors cheered the figures, sending the stock as high as $83.35.

Meeting revised guidance

A critical metric for investors was how the firm performed against the revised 2025 guidance it issued in the third quarter. Full year non-reserve other revenue exceeded expectations to reach $110mn, while adjusted operating expenses also landed within the target range that Circle had projected.

These figures follow a highly profitable third quarter where Circle posted $740mn in revenue and boosted the amount of USDC in circulation. Looking ahead, Circle provided new guidance metrics for the full year 2026 including an expectation for other revenue to fall between $150mn and $170mn, for example. 

Circle occupies a unique position in the digital asset sector. As the issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin globally, the company provides the foundational plumbing for the decentralized economy. The firm went public on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025.

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, argued that the move should not have surprised investors. In a post on X, he said Circle is targeting the same market as Tether, which he noted generates more profit than TradFi giant Goldman Sachs despite Goldman’s roughly $187bn market capitalization. Wednesday's bump valued Circle at $19.58bn at the close of trading in New York.

Massive fiat reserves

While historically reliant on the interest yield generated by its massive fiat reserves, Circle is actively diversifying its revenue through its institutional Arc blockchain and cross-chain transfer protocols. The company also maintains deep political connections in Washington, heavily lobbying for supportive legislation such as the GENIUS Act and positioning itself as a strictly compliant, US-domiciled alternative to offshore competitors.

Analyst sees further upside

Financial analyst Mike Zaccardi maintained a Buy rating following the results in a note published on Seeking Alpha, writing that while Circle’s long-term growth trajectory remains uncertain, the valuation appears "somewhat encouraging" even after the post-earnings jump. He also pointed to improving technical signs, noting the stock has moved above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October. 

"I have a Buy rating on CRCL. I see fair value about $10 higher than today’s price," Zaccardi wrote. 

(This story was updated with the latest share movement, reduced references to the earnings statement and comments by Rasmussen and Zaccardi).