Recap
- Investors reacted calmly, at first, to the latest attempt by Donald Trump to raise US trade tariffs, though risk assets such as crypto were trending down through the weekend. Among the decliners: major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and XRP; S&P 500 Index futures; and the dollar dropped on Monday morning in Europe. Gold rose.
- Gemini shares slid after the exchange ousted senior executives and flagged wider 2025 losses, showing how prolonged market weakness is reshaping leadership and cost structures.
- At the ETH Denver conference, Vitalik Buterin reframed Ethereum’s roadmap, as analysis pointed to a Darwinian reckoning for Layer 2 networks competing for liquidity and relevance.
- The CFTC set out its claim to regulate prediction markets in the US, highlighting the growing political and regulatory stakes around event contracts in an election year.
- Kalshi’s sports betting ambitions hit a legal wall after Nevada countersued, intensifying the state-versus-federal battle over the boundaries of prediction markets. Meanwhile the Dutch gambling regulator moved to ban Polymarket's local platform operator.
- The Trump and Witkoff families' World Liberty Financial piloted USD1 within Apex’s tokenized system, signalling continued experimentation with dollar-linked assets inside institutional blockchain infrastructure.
- Japan’s SBI moved to acquire a majority stake in Coinhako to expand its Singapore footprint, reinforcing Asia’s consolidation drive in regulated digital asset hubs.
- Metaplanet’s expanding Bitcoin holdings drove a fiscal-year net loss, highlighting the accounting and volatility risks facing corporate treasury adopters.
- Robinhood’s crypto testnet approached 5mn transactions as developers flocked to its DeFi-focused network, signalling retail platforms’ push deeper into onchain infrastructure.
Top Gainers
- KITE (Kite) +23%
- MORPHO (Morpho) +20%
- STABLE (Stable) +16%
Top Losers
- H (Humanity Protocol) -29%
- ZEC (Zcash) -18%
- ENA (Ethena) -18%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.31tn (-1.7% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.4% (vs 58.5% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 14/100 (vs 12 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 32/100 (vs 30 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$315.9mn (vs -$359.9mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$123.3mn (vs -$161.2mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $67,825 (-1.47%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,971 (-3.76%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by US-Iran negotiations as military tensions rise after Washington directed warships to the region. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, has said that talks will resume in Geneva on Thursday.
Markets will continue to price in uncertainty related to the new round of tariffs adjusted by President Trump over the weekend. On Friday, the Supreme Court in a 6-3 vote, struck down tariffs Trump had imposed last year on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In response, Trump announced a global tariff rate of 10%, then 15%, citing section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, that allows him to set temporary restrictions up to 150 days.
President Donald Trump will deliver his State of Union address to Congress on Tuesday.
It will be a relatively quiet week on the data side. The US will report consumer confidence data for February, Germany will publish GDP figures for Q4, and the euro area will report inflation and economic confidence indicators.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Tuesday 24 February
Economic data
- 15:00 US consumer confidence: The Conference Board publishes initial figures for February. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting reading of 87.5 compared with 84.5 in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption accounts for 67.9% of GDP.
Wednesday 25 February
Government
- 02:00 US President Donald Trump will deliver his State of Union address to Congress.
Central banks
- 01:00 China loan prime rate. Beijing will report the new monthly LPR – the country’s benchmark lending rate – for February. China has left key lending rates unchanged for over half a year.
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany GDP: Germany publishes its Q4 figure for the economy. Growth of 0.3% similar to the previous quarter, would meet economists’ expectations. The nation’s central bank expects growth be somewhat stronger this year, advancing about 0.6 % as overall effect of additional government spending on defence and infrastructure takes place.
- 10:00 euro area HICP final: The Euro Area reports final inflation figures for January, measuring price stability in line with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. The earlier flash reading of inflation was 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Humanity (H) Token Unlock: 134.52mn H (~7.37% of circulating supply), worth roughly $22.27mn. The cliff-style release is split between the Ecosystem Fund, Identity Verification Rewards, and Foundation Treasury, potentially adding limited near-term supply as allocations are deployed.
Thursday 26 February
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area economic sentiment: Eurostat publishes the latest release for economic conditions in February, including business climate, economic, industrial and services sentiment indicators, along with the final consumer confidence figures. Commenting on the economy’s 0.3% growth in Q4, the ECB has said: "Growth has mainly been driven by services, notably in the information and communication sector. Manufacturing has been resilient despite the headwinds from global trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Momentum in construction is picking up, also supported by public investment."
- 13:30 US unemployment claims: Weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ending 21 Feb follow a 23,000 drop in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 in the previous week. The US labour market continues to provide mixed picture with immigration shut down, population ageing and economic uncertainty forcing employers to be cautious with hiring.
- 23:30-23:50 Japan CPI, employment, retail sales data: Japan publishes key economic indicators for February and January, amongst whom the Tokyo CPI is expected to be most impactful. Economists polled by Reuters expect the core inflation, which excludes most volatile food component, to be 1.7% in February, down from 2.0% in January.
Friday 27 February
Crypto event (conference)
- First day of XRP Australia 2026, bringing together XRP ecosystem developers, institutional partners, and community members for panels, networking, and discussions focused on XRP Ledger development, payments infrastructure, tokenization, and real-world adoption.
