Your Weekly Markets Briefing
Market Snapshot
Tuesday's lower-than-expected US inflation figure gave Bitcoin, Ether and other major cryptocurrencies a long-overdue shot in the arm, with BTC printing its strongest positive daily move since early June. Tensions in the Persian Gulf pushed Brent oil upward for a second straight week, closing out Friday at around $88, its highest since 12 Jun. Most major global indices were in the red, with Korea's KOSPI tracking down for the 4th straight week, wiping out all of its May and June gains.
Macro Summary
On the macro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the PBoC (People's Bank of China) will make interest rate decisions. The UK, Japan and Canada will release their latest inflation figures, while the UK will publish its latest unemployment data.
The geopolitical landscape will continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East after the US and Iran escalated attacks, prompting double-digit percentage gains in oil futures last week.
Recap
- BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, recorded $3.1bn in outflows from its crypto ETFs during the second quarter. The company disclosed the figures amid its second quarter earnings report.
- Appearing before the US Congress, Fed chair Kevin Warsh stood by his position not to rule out a central bank rescue for stablecoin issuers in the event of a run on the fiat-pegged crypto instruments.
- A person accused of exploiting inside information for bets on prediction markets was revealed to be a White House teleprompter assistant with privileged access to the president's speeches. Kalshi, the platform involved in this case, said its surveillance team flagged the trades and referred them to the CFTC.
- Hedge fund Citadel Securities agreed to invest $400mn in Crypto.com, its second investment in a crypto exchange in eight months, in a deal that values the digital assets platform at $20bn. Meanwhile, Ondo Finance and Japan's SBI Group entered a partnership to tokenize equities.
- South Korea highlighted digital assets in its official economic strategy for the second half of the year. The move may help catalyze policy and legislation related to the blockchain economy.
Top Gainers
- PUMP (Pump.fun) +37%
- VVV (Venice Token) +10%
- LTC (Litecoin) +7%
Top Losers
- DEXE (DeXe) -28%
- LIT (Lighter) -17%
- WLD (Worlcoin) -14%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.21tn (+0.91% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 58.5% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 35/100 (vs 29 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 50/100 (vs 56 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$75.5mn (vs +$197.4mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$105.5mn (vs +$84.3mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin):$64,260 (+0.37%) (as at Thursday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,845.5 (+2.87%) (as at Thursday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 20 July
Economic data
12:30 Canada, CPI. Statistics Canada will provide inflation figures for June, compared with 3.2% in May and 2.8% in April. The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight borrowing rate at 2.25% in July, as growth is increasing and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike.
01:00 China loan prime rate: Beijing will report the new monthly LPR – the country’s benchmark lending rate – for July. China has left key lending rates unchanged for more than a year.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Kaito (KAITO) Token Unlock: 20.7mn KAITO (~8.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $15.7mn. The cliff-style release spans ecosystem & network growth, core contributors, early backers, long-term creator incentives and the foundation. Given its size relative to circulating supply, the unlock could create meaningful short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 21 July
Economic data
- 06:00 UK unemployment: The UK publishes ILO employment statistics for May. Economists polled by Reuters expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.9%, where it's been since April.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- GateChain (GT) Token Unlock: 4.2mn GT (~4.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $28.0mn. The release is allocated across research & development, the community development foundation, and marketing & ecosystem expansion. The unlock represents a moderate increase in circulating supply that could weigh on price in the short term.
Wednesday 22 July
Company earnings
- Tesla (TSLA) Q2: As one of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech companies, the electric carmaker's earnings may weigh on the Nasdaq and influence investor sentiment in the sector, or even the wider US stocks universe. Furthermore, Tesla is one of the top 15 corporate holders of Bitcoin; its statements may contain information or clues about its approach to buying and selling the asset.
Economic data
06:00 UK inflation: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release June CPI inflation data, following May's reading of 2.8%. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 2.6% in June.
Thursday 23 July
Economic data
14:00 Euro area consumer confidence: Eurostat publishes flash consumer confidence figures for July. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer confidence to be -16.8, an improvement on –17.7 a month ago.
23:30 Japan CPI: Japan publishes its key inflation indicator for June. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.6% in June, up from May's reading of 1.4%.
Central banks
12:15 Euro area ECB benchmark rate: The ECB board votes on main refinancing rates. In the previous meeting, the ECB voted to raise the main benchmark Deposit and Refinancing rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% and 2.40%, respectively. Market-implied probabilities suggest that the ECB will elect to keep rates on hold this time.
Saturday 25 July
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Humanity Protocol (H) Token Unlock: 297.0mn H (~14.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $17.6mn. The release spans early contributors, the ecosystem fund, investors, identity verification rewards, strategic reserves and the foundation treasury. Despite the relatively modest dollar value, the unlock represents a sizeable increase in circulating supply and could generate notable short-term selling pressure.
Sunday 26 July
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Jupiter (JUP) Token Unlock: 53.5mn JUP (~1.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $10.8mn. The release is allocated to the team and represents a relatively limited increase in circulating supply, making significant selling pressure less likely.
