Dutch Gambling Regulator Tells Polymarket's Local Operator to Quit or Pay Fines

The regulator, known locally by the Dutch acronym KSA, warned the firm of a weekly penalty of €420,000, capped at €840,000, if it does not comply. The KSA's 17 Feb order classified Polymarket’s event contracts as unlawful games of chance under Dutch law and said the operator lacks the required licence.

Social risks, elections

The KSA singled out the "social risks" posed by prediction markets, explicitly citing the potential to influence elections, and said platforms will be judged by their function, not how they brand themselves. "Prediction markets are gaining traction here, but these platforms offer bets that are strictly prohibited in our jurisdiction," the regulator said, calling for immediate cessation of Dutch-market activity. That legal framing puts Polymarket in the same category as traditional gambling operators in the Netherlands, narrowing any wiggle room around the rules.

The Dutch action is the latest in a string of clashes between national regulators and prediction-market firms as the sector scales beyond niche traders into mainstream volumes and media partnerships. 

US regulatory grapples

US and state regulators are also grappling with whether such event contracts are regulated financial instruments or illicit wagers. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to create a rule-set for “event contracts,” signalling federal interest in regulating the market, while states such as Nevada have taken aggressive enforcement measures against rivals such as Kalshi. Those parallel moves underscore a transatlantic tug-of-war over which rulebook – securities/futures or gambling law – should apply.

The timing is notable. Polymarket has been pushing mainstream integrations, including recent tie-ups reported with Substack and Major League Soccer, as part of a legitimacy offensive even as authorities tighten the screws.