Recap
- The crypto market extended its decline into a fourth consecutive week dropping lower than at any point since April. A slight rebound on Sunday still left the total value of crypto assets about $1.3tn below the October peak.
- Bitcoin briefly fell to almost $80,500. The slump in the largest cryptocurrency raised questions over whether Strategy, the largest BTC corporate treasury, would remain in the global MSCI Index of stocks.
- The US Fed released the FOMC minutes from the last committee meeting, exposing unusually high uncertainty as officials weighed persistent inflation, a softening labour market and missing data from the government shutdown, leaving markets leaning toward an interest rate hold. Chair Jerome Powell remains under considerable political pressure.
- Harvard University’s endowment disclosed that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) had become its largest equity position, lifting its exposure to roughly $443mn at the end of September. Investment products exposed to Bitcoin have had a tougher time of late, suffering more than $900mn in outflows on a single day last week.
- Crypto exchange Kraken confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC just a day after securing a fresh $20bn valuation in a funding round backed by Citadel Securities and Jane Street. The move was widely anticipated, following in the steps of competitor marketplaces Gemini, Bullish and Coinbase in selling shares to the public.
- The regulation-focused Basel Committee’s leadership conceded that global banking standards for crypto aren't up to date, particularly in relation to the rapid growth and systemic significance of stablecoins. India is planning a rupee-pegged stablecoin for Q1 2026 to counter dollar dominance.
- The latest G20 Leaders' Declaration from the weekend summit in South Africa called for unified and global oversight of crypto-assets, including stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi), and encouraged continued implementation of the frameworks developed by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in Basel and other standard-setting bodies. This builds on previous declarations, which have similarly emphasized the need for coordinated, consistent global regulation.
Macro summary
The week ahead will deliver a wide range of major data releases across the US, Europe, and Asia, offering fresh signals on growth, inflation, and consumer sentiment as the year-end approaches. Key indicators – including delayed US PPI and retail sales, European inflation prints, Japan’s CPI and jobs – may shape expectations for both fiscal and monetary policy as economies navigate shifting momentum and rising budget pressures.
Top Gainers
- BCH (Bitcoin Cash) +11%
- WLFI (World Liberty Financial) +7.6%
- MYX (MYX Finance) +7.5%
Top Losers
- DASH (Dash) -34%
- STRK (Starknet) -30%
- CC (Canton) -29%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.96tn (-7.5% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.6% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 10/100 (vs 18 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 23/100 (vs 31 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.22bn (vs -$1.11bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$500.2mn (vs -$728.3mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $85,250 (-10.3%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,769 (-12.6%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 24 November
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1 of the International Conference on Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies (ICBC) 2025 in Las Vegas including presentations by engineers, researchers, and practitioners exploring DLT, smart contracts, regulation, and financial stability. It's organized by the World Academy of Science, Engineering & Technology (WASET).
Economic data
- 09:00 Germany, ifo Business Climate, Current Conditions and Expectations: The numbers for November will compare with improved sentiment reported earlier by ifo for October. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 points in October, up from 87.7 points in September. This was due to improved expectations for the coming months.
Tuesday 25 November
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany GDP: the Federal Statistical Office publishes its Q3 GDP figures. Economists expect growth to be flat on the quarter-on-quarter basis.
- 13:30 US PPI Final Demand: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will finally publish September's PPI data that were initially scheduled for 16 Oct.
- 13:30 US Retail Sales: Similarly, Census Bureau will provide delayed September’s Retail Sales data. This is one of the key indicators that influence policymakers, businesses, and general economic sentiment as consumption takes up 70% of US GDP, and retail sales account for nearly 40% of consumption.
- 14:00 US CaseShiller20: S&P publishes the Case Shiller index for September. It is the leading indicator of the American housing market and one of the indicators of the state of the broader economy. The index illustrates the trend of home prices. Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted in her recent speech that “asset valuations are, on the whole, elevated relative to historical benchmarks in a number of markets, including ... housing markets.”
- 15:00 US Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board will release November’s figure for Consumer Confidence. Economists expect the index to be 93.3, down from 94.6 in October. Consumer confidence has been trending downwards since November last year.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2 of ICBC 2025 in Las Vegas.
Crypto event (key development)
- MegaETH will open its pre-deposit bridge programme on 25 Nov, allowing users to deposit USDC on Ethereum mainnet into a capped $250mn pool with no individual limits, ahead of the network’s Beta release on 1 Dec.
Company Earnings
- CleanSpark (CLSK), one of the largest Bitcoin miners, will release its Q3 earnings figures after the stock market close. EPS are forecasted at $0.05 (vs $0.78 the previous quarter), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 119%, according to Zack’s.
Wednesday 26 November
Economic data
- 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims – 22 Nov w/e: Weekly Initial Jobless claims being published by the US Department of Labor. Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ending 15 Nov. The four-week moving average also declined, slipping by 3,000 to 224,250 from the previous week’s revised level.
Central Banks
- 19:00 US Federal Reserve issues Beige Book: Each Federal Reserve Bank collects anecdotal insights on economic conditions in its District from directors, business contacts, economists, market participants, and other sources. These observations are then compiled and summarized by District and sector in the Beige Book. The report is published eight times per year.
Government
- UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the Autumn Budget. She is expected to raise £20–30bn in additional taxes, driven by an anticipated growth downgrade from the budget watchdog, rising borrowing costs, and the government’s failure to push planned welfare cuts through Parliament.
Thursday 27 Nov
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment in Germany is expected to improve slightly heading into December to -23, up from -24.1 in November.
- 10:00 Euro Area, Business Climate and Sentiment: Economists expect Economic Sentiment for November to reach 97.1, up from 96.8. Business Climate and Economic Sentiment indicators have been increasing since April this year.
- 23:50 Japan CPI, Jobs, Retail Sales: Japan will release key economic indicators. This comes as policymakers grapple with shifting economic conditions. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, elected in October, has pledged a large fiscal spending package funded by additional debt issuance, raising questions about Japan’s fiscal discipline. Since her election, the yen has already weakened by around 6%, while yields on 20-year government bonds have climbed to their highest level since 1999. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has also signalled the possibility of a near-term rate hike, noting that currency movements may now have a greater impact on inflation as companies have become more willing to raise prices and wages.
Friday 28 November
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany Retail Sales: The Federal Statistics Office publishes Germany’s retail sales for October. Analysts expect Retail Sales to grow by 0.1% compared with the previous month. In September Retail sales grew 0.2%, in line with analysts’ expectations.
- 07:45 France Consumer Spending: INSEE publishes consumer spending data for France for October. In the prior month, household consumption of goods increased over one month (+0.3%). The downturn in food consumption was offset by the rebound in energy consumption and by the acceleration in spending on engineered goods, according to INSEE.
- 07:45–13:00 Germany, France, Italy, Spain, HICP Preliminary Inflation: The largest Euro Area countries are set to release their harmonized inflation figures for November. Eurostat published the final October numbers, which matched analysts’ expectations with inflation at 2.1%. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting in late October, as inflation continues to hover close to its 2% target.
- 08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate: Germany's unemployment rate has been a flat 6.3% since March this year.
- 09:00 Italy GDP Final: Italy publishes its final GDP estimate for the third quarter. Economists expect the figure to be flat 0.0%. The European Commission recently revised down country’s GDP forecasts. For 2025, the economy is now expected to grow 0.4%, down from 0.7% previously. The 2026 projection has been trimmed to 0.8% from 0.9%, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 0.8%.
- 13:30 Canada GDP: Statistics Canada publishes GDP figures for September and third quarter. Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted in August, shrinking 0.3% against expectations for flat growth and wiping out the gains from July’s upwardly revised 0.3% expansion – leaving the third quarter with little to no net growth.
- S&P Reviews France’s Credit Rating: S&P already downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+ warning that the country’s debt burden will rise more than previously expected in the coming years.
