Recap
- Crypto assets erased last week’s gains in the first part of Monday trading. The total crypto market cap slipped back below $3tn with Bitcoin dropping beneath $86,000. Thanksgiving week in the US – when market participants traditionally divert their attention to family matters – had provided a brief respite following four straight weeks of losses.
- Over the US Thanksgiving holiday, CME Group suffered a rare, market-wide outage on Friday morning after a cooling failure at a CyrusOne data centre forced the exchange operator to halt trading across futures, options, FX and several benchmark contracts. Market impact was blunted by the thin liquidity and sparse orders.
- S&P Global cut stablecoin issuer Tether to its weakest stability rating while South Korean regulators moved to shut Bithumb’s USDT market, putting the $184bn stablecoin squarely in the sights of ratings agencies and hands-on enforcement.
- South Korea’s Naver Financial agreed to acquire Upbit operator Dunamu in a share-swap that pulls the country’s largest crypto exchange into the Naver payments empire. The move may pave the way for a won-backed stablecoin. Just a day later, Upbit was hacked for $30mn-equivalent of Solana-based assets.
- In the US, the SEC convened an Investor Advisory Committee with BlackRock, Citadel, Coinbase, Galaxy, and Robinhood to map tokenized equities, marking a move from treating crypto mainly as a risk to letting Wall Street help design the new market structure.
- The Bank for International Settlements warned that tokenized money market funds have swelled to about $9bn and could become a “contagion channel” for the broader financial system.
- Strategy came under renewed pressure after JPMorgan warned it could be cut from major indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100 by 15 Jan, potentially forcing up to $2.8bn of passive selling in its stock. With the stock now trading only slightly above the value of its bitcoin holdings, investors are questioning how resilient its highly leveraged treasury model really is.
- A Nevada court stripped prediction market Kalshi of its “federal shield” by ruling its sports contracts are wagers rather than swaps, opening the door to state enforcement and challenging the idea that one CFTC license can cover the whole US. Meanwhile, Polymarket won amended CFTC approval to return to the US as a broker-based exchange, giving up its open, wallet-first model to win access to larger, regulated investors.
- Standard Chartered, US Bank, and Klarna each announced initiatives to push deeper into digital assets.
Macro summary
Against the backdrop of continued talks over the future of war-torn Ukraine either side of the Atlantic, it’s a busy week for economic data from the US, Europe and Asia with communications also expected from several central banks.
Surveys of purchasing managers (PMIs), including manufacturing and services, delayed import prices, jobless claims and consumer sentiment will all raise interest in the US economy ahead of the Fed’s December meeting next week. Remarks from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report and a policy decision from the Reserve Bank of India round out the week’s macro agenda.
Top Gainers
- KAS (Kaspa) +44%
- SPX (SPX6900) +34%
- QNT (Quant) +31%
Top Losers
- M (MemeCore) -26%
- ZEC (Zcash) -25%
- STRK (Starknet) -18%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.07tn (+3.7% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.7% (vs 58.6% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 20/100 (vs 10 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 23/100 (vs 23 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$70.2mn (vs -$1.2bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$312.6mn (vs -$500.2mn previous week)
Futures
- BTC (Bitcoin): $91,500 (+6.8%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $3,067 (+10.4%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 1 December
Economic data
- 00:30 Japan, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: S&P will publish the November manufacturing PMI, after October’s release showed activity contracting at the fastest pace in 18 months. The index had dropped to 48.2, below the 50.0 threshold that marks the line between expansion and contraction.
- 00:30 Vietnam, Manufacturing PMI: November’s figures may capture interest after October’s PMI jumped to 54.5, up from 50.4 in September. Manufacturing contributes roughly 32% to Vietnam’s GDP.
- 05:00 India, HSBC Manufacturing PMI: Figures will indicate how India’s manufacturing sector fared compared with a stronger October. A quicker rise in new orders lifted output and purchasing activity, leading to one of the sharpest expansions in input inventories on record, though growth in export sales eased to a ten-month low.
- 08:15-09:00 Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, HCOB Manufacturing PMI: The largest euro area economies will release their November manufacturing PMIs, after October’s data showed the sector had stalled: new orders were flat, employment fell, and only production continued to rise, marking an eighth consecutive month of modest growth.
- 09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The final reading for November follows a flash estimate of 50.2 that only narrowly cleared the 50.0 threshold that signals growth.
- 13:00 Brazil, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: November’s report follows an uptick in October.
- 14:30 Canada, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The metric was at its highest since January last month, though it remained below the 50 threshold that signals contraction.
- 14:45-15:00 US S&P and ISM Manufacturing Global PMI: The final reading for November follows an earlier flash estimate that showed manufacturing slowed to a four-month low in November. Tariff-driven price increases dampened demand and left factories with rising inventories of unsold goods – a build-up that could weigh on broader economic growth.
Central banks
- 01:05 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet with business executives in Nagoya, the central Japanese city best known as Toyota’s home base. He told parliament on Friday that the central bank is still collecting data and assessing wage trends, including input from its regional branches. "The BoJ will discuss the feasibility and timing of an interest rate hike at upcoming meetings looking closely at various data and information," he said.
- 23:50 Japan, Monetary Base: the Bank of Japan publishes its November monetary base indicator.
Tuesday 2 December
Economic data
- 09:00 Italy Unemployment: Italy publishes its unemployment rate for October. September’s figure came in at 6.1%.
- 10:00 Euro Area, HICP Flash; Unemployment Rate, October: Eurostat publishes two key indicators for the Euro Area, flash inflation rate indicator for November and unemployment rate for October. The inflation rate was 2.1% for October, just above the 2% target of European Central Bank (ECB). Investors seem to expect no further cuts in 2025 and only marginal cuts in 2026 with inflation broadly on target while growth remains subdued.
Central banks
- The Bank of England publishes the Financial Stability Report for December.
Wednesday 3 December
Economic data
- 00:30 Japan S&P Global Services and Composite Final PMI: The services result from Japan’s purchasing managers index PMI had slipped slightly to 53.1 in October from 53.3 in September.
- 08:15–09:00 Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, HCOB Services and Composite PMI: The largest euro area countries and the bloc as a whole will release their November Composite and Services PMIs. In October, the euro area Composite PMI expanded at its fastest pace since May 2023, rising to 52.5 from 51.2 in September.
- 09:30 UK S&P Global Services and Composite PMI: November’s reading follows a MoM improvement in October.
- 13:00 Brazil S&P Global Services and Composite PMI: Brazil’s service sector had softened in October as new business and output fell, though both declines eased compared with September. There were some positive signs, including a slight increase in employment and continued optimism about future growth, according to S&P Global.
- 13:30 US Import Prices: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September’s import price data, which was originally scheduled for publication on 17 Oct.
- 14:45-15:00 US S&P and ISM Services and Composite Global PMI: The final reading for November of two major gauges of US business activity. In October, activity strengthened to 54.8, up from 53.9 in September, marking the second-fastest pace this year as new orders increased, and output improved across both manufacturing and services.
Crypto event (event)
Day 1/2 of Binance Blockchain Week 2025 in Dubai.
Crypto event (key development)
Ethereum Fusaka mainnet upgrade delivering enhanced blob-throughput, PeerDAS data availability, higher gas limits and infrastructure improvements.
Thursday 4 December
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro Area Retail Sales: Eurostat publishes consumer spending data for October. Retail sales in September fell 0.1% from the previous month, with the sharpest declines in non-food products (-0.2%) and automotive fuel (-1.0%).
- 12:00 Brazil GDP: Brazil will release its third-quarter GDP results. The country’s Finance Ministry already trimmed its 2025 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%, citing weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data that also dampened expectations for the final quarter of the year.
- 13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims will compare with a drop in the prior week that left new claims at a seven-month low. The absence of labour-market deterioration in the latest report would be expected to reduce the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut this month, as inflation remains above target.
Crypto event (event)
- Day 2/2 of Binance Blockchain Week 2025 in Dubai.
Friday 5 December
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany Industrial Orders, Manufacturing Prices, Consumer Goods: Germany will publish its latest factory order figures. September orders climbed more than expected, boosted by higher demand for automobiles and electrical equipment, rising 1.1% from the previous month and just above the 1% increase predicted in a Reuters poll.
- 10:00 Euro Area Employment, GDP: Eurostat will report final unemployment and revised GDP figures for Q3. An earlier flash estimate for Q3 GDP growth was 0.2%.
- 13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate: Statistics Canada will publish employment data for November. Canada added a net 66,600 jobs in October, all part-time positions, while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.9%.
- 15:00 US Factory Orders: US factory orders rose 1.4% in August, matching economists’ expectations and rebounding from a 1.3% drop in July, the Commerce Department reported. September’s figures may shed further light on whether the economy continues to struggle under the weight of import tariffs.
- 15:00 US University of Michigan Sentiment: The University of Michigan will release its latest consumer sentiment data. In November, confidence held broadly steady, dipping only slightly from October and improving somewhat after the federal shutdown ended. Still, households remain discouraged by persistent inflation and weakening incomes, with views on personal finances and big-ticket purchases falling sharply even as expectations for the months ahead improved modestly.
Central banks
- 04:30 India, Standing Deposit Facility Rate, Repo Rate, Marginal Standing Facility Rate: Reserve Bank of India determines the Standing Deposit Facility Rate. India operates a framework where the standing deposit facility (SDF) is set 25 basis points below the repo rate and the marginal standing facility (MSF) is 25 basis points above it, forming the corridor’s floor and ceiling. Repo Rate is expected to be lowered by 25 bps to 5.25%.
Government
- S&P reviews Germany’s Credit Rating.
Sunday 7 December
Economic data
- 23:50 Japan Trade Balance, GDP revised: Japan will publish revised GDP estimate for Q3. The initial estimate showed a contraction of 0.4%.
