Market Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC) posted a third consecutive positive week as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and signals of a peace deal began to emerge. At one point, BTC spiked to around $78,300, its highest point since the first week of February, before dropping back to close out the week at around $73,800. Brent crude oil futures fell as much as 14% during the week on promises of a swift return to normalcy, and US equities pushed to a record high.
As has become something of a tradition, however, the weekend brought news of renewed tensions, with President Trump posting on Sunday night that US forces had intercepted and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to run the US-enforced blockade.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the war in the Middle East and a delicate ceasefire. Over the weekend, the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Iran accused the US of violating the two-week truce, which is due to expire on 22 Apr. Crude oil prices moved higher, while futures for major European and US stock indexes fell in early Monday trading.
The Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Tuesday in Washington.
On the macro data side, the week will be driven by UK and Japanese inflation prints, along with US retail sales data.
Recap
- Bitcoin remained stuck around $75,000 while US equities pushed to record highs on hopes of progress in an Iran deal, highlighting a growing divergence between crypto and traditional risk assets.
- At Paris Blockchain Week, crypto’s institutional pivot came into full view as the industry shed its "hoodies" image and leaned into a more polished, capital-markets identity, reinforcing its evolution into a recognized asset class within global portfolios.
- Trump-backed World Liberty Financial moved to unlock $62bn in tokens, potentially unleashing a major new source of liquidity into the market.
- Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh disclosed more than $100mn in financial assets, including crypto holdings, ahead of his confirmation, showing how deeply digital assets have penetrated financial elites.
- US banks pushed back against White House claims on stablecoin yields, warning of potential damage to community banks and the broader deposit system.
- The SEC introduced a narrow safe harbour allowing certain crypto interfaces to avoid broker classification, offering limited regulatory relief for front-end platforms.
- Reform UK political party leader Nigel Farage directed a £2mn Bitcoin purchase, becoming the first sitting UK MP to take a direct position in the asset.
- Demand for non-USD stablecoins surged as alternatives to the dollar gained traction, signalling early cracks in USD dominance within the global crypto ecosystem.
- Kraken’s parent Payward agreed to acquire derivatives platform Bitnomial for up to $550mn, bringing brokerage, clearing and exchange licences in-house as it pushes deeper into regulated US derivatives markets and expands beyond spot trading.
- CME made a fresh push into prediction markets with plans to deepen liquidity, signalling growing institutional interest in event-driven trading as a new asset class.
Top Gainers
- 币安人生 (Binance Life) +150%
- DEXE (DeXe) +56%
- ENA (Ethena) +23%
Top Losers
- DASH (Dash) -18%
- SIREN (siren) -18%
- ZEC (Zcash) -17%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.49tn (+3.3% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.2% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 50/100 (vs 42 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 37/100 (vs 34 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$332.6mn (vs +$816.9mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$275.9mn (vs +$187mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $77,545 (+5.52%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,431 (+7.54%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 20 April
Economic data
02:00 China loan prime rate: Beijing will report the new monthly LPR, the country’s benchmark lending rate, for April. China has left key lending rates unchanged for more than half a year.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- LayerZero (ZRO) upcoming unlock will release 25.7mn ZRO (~10.2% of supply), worth ~$50.53mn, via a cliff event spanning strategic partners, core contributors and repurchased tokens likely to introduce short-term selling pressure.
- Kaito (KAITO) upcoming unlock will release 20.7mn KAITO (~8.6% of supply), worth ~$10.08mn, via a cliff event spanning ecosystem & network growth, core contributors, early backers, long-term incentives and the foundation likely to introduce short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 21 April
Economic data
13:30 US retail sales: the US Census Bureau publishes figures for March. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect developments in consumer spending, one of the largest components of the US economy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have grown by 1.3% in March, compared to a 0.6% reading in February.
15:00 Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve takes place in Washington, DC. During his tenure as a governor, Warsh was known as an "inflation hawk," frequently warning about inflation risks in his public remarks, though recently he has aligned himself with Trump, noting that he believes current rates "should be lower". Warsh has disclosed that he holds $100mn in financial assets, including crypto.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- GateChain (GT) upcoming unlock will release 4.2mn GT (~3.6% of supply), worth ~$30.41mn, via a cliff event spanning R&D, community foundation and marketing & ecosystem expansion likely to introduce short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 22 April
Economic data
07:00 UK CPI: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release March inflation data, following February's reading of 3.0%. The March reading is expected to show an initial indication of the impact of the energy price spike after the war broke out in the Middle East on 28 Feb. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 3.3% in March.
Protocol upgrade
- Mantle Mainnet is scheduled to undergo the Arsia upgrade, estimated around 07:00 UTC, a core infrastructure update that introduces a more transparent, dynamic fee model and aligns Mantle with the latest OP Stack standards to improve efficiency and scalability.
Thursday 23 April
Economic data
13:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 13 Apr follow a small decline of 9,000 in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 in the previous week.
Friday 24 April
Economic data
00:30 Japan CPI: Japan publishes a key inflation indicator for March. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.8% in March, up from 1.6% in February. The CPI print comes before the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy meeting next week, where the BoJ is expected to make a narrow decision to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75% to 1.00%.
Saturday 25 April
Crypto event (conference)
- TRUMP Gala luncheon for token holders hosted by Fight Fight Fight LLC at Mar-a-Lago, featuring US President Trump and other high-profile guests, with eligibility based on holdings captured at the 10 Apr snapshot.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Humanity Protocol (H) upcoming unlock will release 134.5mn H (~7.5% of supply), worth ~$15.94mn, via a cliff event spanning ecosystem fund, identity rewards and foundation treasury likely to introduce short-term selling pressure.
- Plasma (XPL) upcoming unlock will release 88.9mn XPL (~4.9% of supply), worth ~$11.92mn, via a cliff event allocated to ecosystem & growth likely to introduce short-term selling pressure.
