Market Snapshot
Bitcoin traded close to $78k, a key psychological threshold it surpassed last week for the first time since early February. Oil nudged back above $100 as traders continued to focus on the trade-choking Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade. Meanwhile, a handful of the most impactful central banks will hold regular rate-setting meetings in the next days that may offer clues on the forthcoming macro environment.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the war in the Middle East and the delicate ceasefire. On Saturday, Trump revoked plans to send US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for peace negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistan's Chief of Defence Forces Asim Munir.
On the macro data side, the week will be dominated by central bank decisions. Four of the most watched central banks – the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) – are conducting monetary policy meetings. They're expected to hold rates steady amid the prospect of negative economic impact from the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Recap
- Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next Fed chair has become increasingly likely after Senator Thom Tillis told US news network NBC at the weekend he would stop opposing it. Tillis was cited after a US Department of Justice official said it would close its investigation into the incumbent Jerome Powell.
- President Trump's memecoin slid against the dollar on Saturday, even as he hosted a private event in Florida that's been described as an attempt to promote his family's crypto interests and Trump-branded merchandise.
- Trump had been a vocal advocate for digital assets last year, though the CLARITY Act, a key piece of market structure legislation, was stalled by negotiations in Congress on the text. Crypto industry lobbyists last week increased their efforts to accelerate the bill’s passage.
- Perhaps an unwelcome distraction for the Trump family, Tron (TRX) founder Justin Sun sued their World Liberty Financial (WLFI) vehicle over frozen tokens and voting rights.
- Ethena’s USDe stablecoin recorded about $1.6bn in net outflows over five days amid the fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit. An attacker had drained roughly $292mn in unbacked Restaked ETH (rsETH) from Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge on 18 Apr and deposited it as collateral on Aave, a protocol that functions as a pooled lending market, to borrow real assets. Aave’s pools were close to full utilization, the point at which all the supplied assets would have been borrowed.
- Away from the Aave debacle, privacy-focused token Zcash (ZEC) surged after trading platform Robinhood listed the digital asset.
- Separately, crypto continued to converge with TradFi and prediction markets. Morgan Stanley’s investment management unit introduced a dedicated government money market fund that provides stablecoin issuers with a compliant, yield-generating option for reserves under US regulations. Polymarket and Kalshi continued to edge towards offering crypto perpetual futures.
- Meanwhile, the sector had a reality check in the UK when the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) raided peer-to-peer cryptocurrency traders, signalling the regulator’s determination to disrupt unregistered activity as it prepares to implement a licensing regime.
Top Gainers
- H (Humanity Protocol) +44%
- ZBCN (Zebec Network) +43%
- STABLE (Stable) +30%
Top Losers
- DEXE (DeXe) -10%
- TRUMP (OFFICIAL TRUMP) -6.3%
- ZRO (LayerZero) -3.5%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.62tn (+5.1% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 60.0% (vs 59.2% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 47/100 (vs 50 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 41/100 (vs 37 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$823.7mn (vs +$332.6mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$155.1mn (vs +$275.9mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $78,110 (+0.73%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,341 (-3.70%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 27 April
Crypto event (conference)
- First day of Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Grass (GRASS) Token Unlock: 33.4mn GRASS (~5.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $13.5mn. The cliff-style release spans early investors and contributors, potentially introducing short-term selling pressure.
- Jupiter (JUP) Token Unlock: 53.5mn JUP (~1.47% of circulating supply), worth roughly $9.1mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to the team and may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 28 April
Economic data
- 00:30 Japan jobs/applicants' ratio, unemployment rate: The Statistics Bureau publishes figures including the unemployment rate for March. Unemployment was 2.6% in February; a group of economists polled by Reuters expect no change.
Central banks
- Bank of Japan Rate Decision: the BoJ announces its key benchmark rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect the interest rate to remain at 0.75%.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/3 of Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock: 9.9mn HYPE (~4.1% of circulating supply), worth roughly $408mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to core contributors, introducing a significant amount of new supply into circulation.
- Sui (SUI) Token Unlock: 34.0mn SUI (~0.85% of circulating supply), worth roughly $32mn. The cliff-style release spans Series B investors, community reserves, and treasury allocations, introducing additional supply into the market.
Crypto event (protocol upgrade)
- BNB Chain's Osaka/Mendel hard fork activates at 02:30UTC, a network stability upgrade that enforces execution limits and improves transaction finality following the chain's push to sub-second block times.
Wednesday 29 April
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro area economic sentiment: Eurostat publishes the latest release for economic conditions in April, including business climate, economic, industrial and services sentiment indicators, along with final consumer confidence figures. The President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, noted in recent remarks that "so far, we have not seen energy prices rise far enough to push us squarely into our adverse scenario. If the conflict resolves quickly, the direct energy price shock could prove to be at the smaller end of expectations – and the economic impact would be contained."
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/3 of Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas
Thursday 30 April
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro area HICP flash: The euro area reports flash inflation estimates for April, measuring price stability in line with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 2.9% in April, up from 2.6% in March.
- 13:30 US PCE Inflation: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation for March. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released earlier showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.3% in March, in line with economist expectations but up from 2.4% in February.
Central banks
- 12:00 Bank of England rate decision: Economists polled by Reuters expect rates to be held at 3.75% as inflation continues to be well above the BoE’s target. Along with other central banks, the BoE will be sensitive to developments in the conflict in the Middle East.
- 13:15 Euro area ECB benchmark rate: The ECB board votes on main refinancing rates. Futures markets imply that members will hold rates at 2.0%. Inflation jumped to 2.6% in March – the first month of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran – up from 1.9% in February.
Crypto event (protocol upgrade)
- Rayls Labs, a blockchain designed for financial institutions, rolls out its Public Chain mainnet at 15:00UTC, activating the project token $RLS deflationary tokenomics.
Friday 1 May
Economic data
- 00:30 Japan CPI: Japan publishes CPI price data, of which the Tokyo CPI is expected to be most closely watched by investors. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.8% in April, up from 1.7% in March.
Sunday 3 May
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Kite AI (KITE) Token Unlock: 114.3mn KITE (~6.1% of circulating supply), worth roughly $17.3mn. The cliff-style release is allocated across ecosystem, community, and contributor buckets, introducing a notable new supply into circulation.
