Market Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC) posted a second consecutive "green week" after reports that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter peace talks with the US in Pakistan. BTC finished the week 2.5% higher at about $70,700, while Brent crude oil futures pulled back more than 13% on the news, closing near $95 – roughly where it stood in early March. US equities rebounded in tandem, gaining 3.5% for the week.
However, the announcement that peace talks had failed, followed by President Trump’s declaration that Iran’s ports would be blockaded starting at 14:00 UTC on 13 April, has pushed oil prices back above $100 a barrel in early trading. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is holding steady around the $71,000 level.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the war in the Middle East. Markets are likely to keep pricing in hostilities after the peace talks in Islamabad failed to produce an agreement and the US threatened a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting at 14:00UTC on 13 Apr. Crude oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel, while futures on major stock indexes were down in early Monday trading.
The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings take place this week in Washington, D.C., with a focus on sovereign government debt and economic recovery. Speakers include Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, and Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group.
On the macro data side, the week will be relatively quiet, led by China’s economic data and euro area inflation figures.
Recap
- Bitcoin broke from the broader US-Iran ceasefire risk rally even as equities climbed and oil tumbled, signalling weakening correlation and growing uncertainty around crypto’s macro positioning.
- Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF saw early inflows as the bank’s market entry intensified fee competition, ushering in the next phase of institutional crypto product battles.
- Dubai’s VARA issued the world’s first formal guidance on token issuance categories, reinforcing its role as a leading jurisdiction for crypto regulatory clarity.
- The US Treasury tightened AML rules around payment stablecoins, increasing scrutiny on compliance, transaction monitoring and financial crime risks.
- Coinbase became the first major exchange to secure an Australian retail derivatives licence, expanding regulated access to leveraged crypto products.
- A US appeals court backed Kalshi in a dispute over state-federal jurisdiction in prediction markets, limiting the reach of state gambling laws and strengthening the legal footing of the rapidly growing industry.
- The FDIC proposed stricter rules on stablecoin yield, redemptions and reserves, signalling mounting pressure on issuers to align with banking standards.
- Bitcoin dominance volatility hit extreme lows, pointing to a potential setup for market dispersion and renewed altcoin rotation.
- Polymarket moved closer to an exchange-style model as competition heats up, reflecting the rapid evolution of prediction markets into full trading venues.
- North Korean hackers were found to have used crypto conferences to orchestrate a $280mn exploit on the Drift protocol, showing the persistent and increasingly sophisticated security threats in the ecosystem.
Top Gainers
- RAVE (RaveDAO) +2415%
- SIREN (siren) +53%
- ZEC (Zcash) +48%
Top Losers
- WLFI (World Liberty Financial) -20%
- TAO (Bittensor) -16%
- ALGO (Algorand) -16%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.41tn (+2.0% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 58.5% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 42/100 (vs 35 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 34/100 (vs 32 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$816.9mn (vs +$22.2mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$187mn (vs -$42.1mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $73,486 (+9.5%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,260.5 (+9.7%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 13 April
Economic data
- 23:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for March: Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity as yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
Tuesday 14 April
Economic data
- China trade balance: February figures. China’s trade balance is one of the most discussed global data points, as it reflects the strength of global demand and often raises speculation about China’s central role in global supply chains and the sustainability of its economic model. Economists polled by Reuters expect the trade surplus to be $109bn in February, down from $214bn in January.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) token unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~3.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $18.2mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to community and ecosystem initiatives, introducing additional supply into circulation.
Wednesday 15 April
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/2 of Paris Blockchain Week 2026 in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a keynote speech, becoming the first sitting G7 leader to attend a blockchain industry summit.
Thursday 16 April
Economic data
- 03:00 China, GDP: China publishes first quarter of 2026 GDP figures. Economists expect the figure to be 5%, up from 4.5% in the previous quarter. According to ING bank, "economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March. Retail sales are projected to slow to 2.5% year-on-year, while fixed‑asset investment is expected to remain subdued."
- 10:00 euro area HICP final: The euro area reports final inflation estimates for March, measuring price stability in line with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. The flash reading of inflation was 2.5%, up from 1.9% in February.
13:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 11 Apr following a small increase of 8,000 in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 in the previous week. The US labour market continues to provide a mixed picture owing to the immigration shutdown, an ageing population and economic uncertainty, prompting employers to be cautious with hiring.
Crypto event (conference)
Day 2/2 of Paris Blockchain Week 2026 in Paris.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 93mn ARB (~1.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $10.1mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to Offchain Labs team, advisors and investors and may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Friday 17 April
Crypto event (token unlock)
