Market Snapshot
The crypto market posted tentative gains over the weekend. The total market value varied by more than $100bn between Saturday's high and low points as traders digested statements about the prospect of a peace deal between the US and Iran. Oil slid 8% by about 06:30UTC on Monday.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the delicate ceasefire in the war in the Middle East. Weekend reports suggested that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement, though Donald Trump tried to play down the progress made in talks on Sunday.
On the macro data side, the week will be shaped by US consumer data, a report on the euro area's economic sentiment and information on Japan's economic activity.
Recap
- Bitcoin traders continued monitoring geopolitical risks tied to Middle East energy flows, with analysts warning that the cryptocurrency’s longer-term reaction to Hormuz-related disruption depends heavily on whether oil markets stabilize.
- Hyperliquid’s explosive rally continued drawing scrutiny after the token’s ETF-fuelled surge prompted questions over whether hype around HYPE had become excessive.
- The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed approval for prediction market ETFs while opening a new public comment process as regulators continue scrutinizing the fast-growing sector.
- Japan expanded its stablecoin framework as regulators adapt rules for a maturing cashless economy and broader adoption of tokenized payment systems.
- The White House ordered an acceleration of fintech integration into the US financial system.
- Separately, an AI/financial venture linked to the Trump family warned of "going concern" risks after the plunge in assets connected to World Liberty Financial, the family's flagship crypto vehicle.
- The US Congress started an insider-trading probe into prediction markets. Polymarket, one such operator, confirmed that a compromised private key led to the drain of more than half a million dollars from an internal operations wallet on the Polygon network.
- Elon Musk’s SpaceX is sitting on an estimated $120mn gain from its Bitcoin holdings, according to details revealed in a recent filing that laid out the company’s crypto exposure ahead of a potential IPO.
- Blockchain.com, a cryptocurrency wallet and exchange provider, confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the US SEC with a view to selling shares to the public..
Top Gainers
- NEAR (NEAR Protocol) +59%
- HYPE (Hyperliquid) +38%
- VVV (Venice Token) +37%
Top Losers
- CHZ (Chiliz) -21%
- BCH (Bitcoin Cash) -14%
- M (MemeCore) -9.4%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.54tn (-0.4% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 60.1% (vs 60.2% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 40/100 (vs 40 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 36/100 (vs 32 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.26bn (vs -$995.5mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$216mn (vs -$225.2mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $75,775 (-4.3%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,062 (-7.4%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 25 May
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Humanity Protocol (H) Token Unlock: 134.5mn H (~7.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $30.36mn. The cliff-style release spans the ecosystem fund, identity verification rewards, and foundation treasury, introducing a meaningful amount of new supply that could create moderate short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 26 May
Economic data
- 15:00 US Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board publishes initial consumer confidence figures for May. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a reading of 92.0 compared with 92.8 in April amid inflationary concerns. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption accounts for almost 68% of GDP.
Wednesday 27 May
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Grass (GRASS) Token Unlock: 33.4mn GRASS (~5.7% of circulating supply), worth roughly $12.29mn. The cliff-style release is primarily allocated to early investors and contributors, introducing notable new supply into circulation.
- Jupiter (JUP) Token Unlock: 53.5mn JUP (~1.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $11.33mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to the team and may introduce limited short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 28 May
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro area economic sentiment: Eurostat publishes the latest release for economic conditions in May, including business climate, economic, industrial and services sentiment indicators, along with final consumer confidence figures. For context, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, noted in a speech last week that "while the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and weighing down on the economy, long-term inflation expectations remain broadly well-anchored."
- 13:30 US Consumption: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes consumption data for April. Consumption increased by 0.9% in March, up from 0.5% in February, but faces headwinds from the impact of the war in the Middle East. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumption to grow 0.5% in April.
- 13:30 US PCE Inflation: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation for April. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to increase by 3.3% on a yearly basis in April, up from 3.2% in March. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 3.8% in April with the energy index jumping to 17.9% for the 12 months ending April.
- 13:30 US Q1 GDP: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics provides another estimate for Q1 GDP. An earlier reading showed the US economy expanded at 2.0%, driven by investment, exports, consumer spending and government spending. That initial Q1 reading exceeded the 0.5% recorded for Q4 2025.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock: 9.9mn HYPE (~4.1% of circulating supply), worth roughly $603mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to current and future core contributors, representing a substantial amount of value entering circulation.
- Sui (SUI) Token Unlock: 2.1mn SUI (~0.05% of circulating supply), worth roughly $2.32mn. The cliff-style treasury allocation is small relative to circulating supply and is unlikely to materially impact market liquidity.
Crypto event (protocol update)
- Leap Wallet sunsets all of its products, including Leap Wallet, Compass Wallet, Swapfast, and validator services on Cosmos ecosystem, with users encouraged to migrate wallets and staking positions beforehand.
Friday 29 May
Economic data
- 00:30-00:50 Japan CPI, employment, retail sales data: Japan publishes key economic indicators for April and May, of which the Tokyo CPI is expected to be most impactful. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.5% in May, flat from April. Japan’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded forecasts, expanding at an annualized 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026.
Crypto event (institutional)
- CME Group will enable 24/7 trading for its crypto futures and options products, extending access to regulated crypto derivatives markets around the clock.
