Recap
- Bitcoin (BTC) crossed $74,000 early on Monday 16 Mar, extending last week's advance. Other major coins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and BNB also posted double-digit percentage weekly gains. ETF products invested in BTC posted their first five-day net positive streak since late November.
- Binance said it was unaware of a reported US Justice Department probe into alleged Iran-related activity and filed a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal. Some Senators in Washington had been calling for an investigation.
- The SEC and CFTC pledged closer collaboration to support US financial innovation, signalling a potential shift toward a more coordinated regulatory framework for digital assets. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said the regulator is exploring an 'innovation exemption' that would allow limited trading of tokenized securities. Separately, the CFTC sought industry input on gambling and insider-trading risks tied to prediction markets, indicating heightened regulatory scrutiny of event-based trading platforms.
- A US ban on a central bank digital currency moved closer to law, though the legislative path remains uncertain as political debate intensifies.
- Gemini’s stock slid after insider filings pointed to looming pressure, reflecting the continued financial strain facing crypto exchanges.
- Competitor Kraken partnered with Nasdaq to develop 24/7 tokenized stock trading, highlighting growing momentum behind blockchain-based market infrastructure.
- Circle’s stock continued to gain, diverging from the broader crypto sector as investors embraced its regulated stablecoin model, reinforcing confidence in compliant digital dollar infrastructure.
- In TradFi, Wells Fargo broke ranks with major banks by filing a trademark for a WFUSD stablecoin, signalling renewed interest among traditional lenders in tokenized dollar systems.
Top Gainers
- RIVER (River) +57%
- TAO (Bittensor) +55%
- RENDER (Render) +40%
Top Losers
- KITE (Kite) -23%
- NIGHT (Midnight) -9.4%
- PI (Pi) -7.8%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.48tn (+9.1% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 58.1% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 36/100 (vs 17 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 40/100 (vs 37 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$767.08mn (vs +$568.5mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$116.4mn (vs +$23.5mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $71,495 (+4.5%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2117.5 (+6.5%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped the by war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will continue trade talks in Paris. The meetings take place before Donald Trump’s state visit to Beijing on 31 Mar.
The week in macro will be dominated by central banks. Along with the US Federal Reserve, the central banks of the UK, EU, Japan, Canada and China are set to make rate decisions. Decisions will be influenced by surging energy prices following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit chokepoint.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants and staff will continue to observe a blackout period that limits public comments prior to the mid-week rate-setting meeting.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 16 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 92.6mn ARB (~1.57% of circulating supply), worth roughly $9.66mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to Offchain Labs team, advisors, and investors and may introduce short-term selling pressure as tokens enter circulation.
Tuesday 17 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~6.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $117mn. The cliff-style release includes a large airdrop allocation, which may introduce short-term selling pressure as recipients distribute tokens into the market.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/2 of The Digital Chamber's DC Blockchain Summit 2026 in Washington, bringing together leading institutional players, regulators, policymakers, and industry executives - including representatives from the SEC, CFTC, major investment banks, exchanges, and US lawmakers - to discuss the future of blockchain regulation and digital asset policy in the United States.
Wednesday 18 March
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area HICP final: The euro area reports final inflation figures for February, measuring price stability in line with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. The earlier flash reading of inflation was 2.4%, up from 2.2% in January.
Central banks
- 13:45 Bank of Canada Rate decision: It’s widely expected that the central bank will keep the rates at 2.25% as inflation remains close to 2%. Investors expect interest rate hikes later in the year as war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz point towards higher consumer prices. Inflation was 2.3% in January according to Statistics Canada.
- 18:00 Fed rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (18:30UTC). Policymakers will continue to assess the risks of softening labour market alongside still-elevated inflation, now at the background of war in Persian Gulf and closure of Strait of Hormuz.
Crypto event (conference)
- Second and closing day of The Digital Chamber's DC Blockchain Summit 2026 in Washington.
Thursday 19 March
Economic data
- 07:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate: the UK publishes employment statistics, including unemployment rate and employment change for January.
Central banks
- 12:00 Bank of England rate decision: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes for the benchmark interest rate. Economists polled by Reuters expect MPC to keep rates on hold at 3.75% as inflation continues to be well above the BoE’s target. Along with other central banks, the BoE will be tentative to the developments in the Middle East.
- 13:15 euro area ECB Deposit Rate: Market-implied probabilities suggest no change of 2.0% as inflation remains broadly in line with the ECB’s target of 2% at 1.9% in January.
Friday 20 March
Central banks
- 01:00 China loan prime rate: Beijing will report the new monthly LPR – the country’s benchmark lending rate – for March. China has left key lending rates unchanged for over half a year.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- LayerZero (ZRO) Token Unlock: 25.7mn ZRO (~12.7% of circulating supply), worth roughly $52.56mn. The cliff-style release is primarily allocated to strategic partners and core contributors and may introduce short-term selling pressure as these tokens enter circulation.
Saturday 21 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- GateChain (GT) Token Unlock: 4.2mn GT (~3.6% of circulating supply), worth roughly $29.70mn. The cliff-style release will introduce new supply into circulation, with allocations distributed across the Community Development Foundation, Research & Development, and Marketing & Foundation Expansion.
Sunday 22 March
Crypto event (token unlock)
- River (RIVER) Token Unlock: 1.8mn RIVER (~9.2% of circulating supply), worth roughly $37.73mn. The cliff-style release will introduce a significant amount of new supply into circulation as tokens allocated to the Ecosystem Foundation, investors, incentives, and community builders unlock simultaneously.
(We corrected times for the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which are 13:45UTC and 18:00UTC respectively following the introduction of daylight savings earlier this month).
