US Sheds 92,000 Jobs in February as Unemployment Hits 4.4%

At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% from 4.3% in January, exceeding expectations that it would hold steady. 

In February, employment continued to trend upward in social assistance. However, job losses occurred in healthcare, information technologies and the federal government, according to the BLS.

Bitcoin initially pulled back on the news, touching $69,800 at 13:30UTC before rebounding to $70,300 several minutes later. Since then, it has tracked downwards, and by 14:50UTC had fallen as far as $68,300.

Ether reacted similarly, dropping to $2,039 at 13:30UTC before rising to $2,061 five minutes later. It has also traded downward since the announcement, touching as low as $1,977 at 14:50UTC.

ADP data 

The BLS data continues to add to a mixed picture of the labour market. Yesterday, ADP released its National Employment Report for private sector employment, providing a contrasting data point to the federal figures.

ADP reported that the private sector added 63,000 jobs in February, surpassing analyst expectations of 50,000. Most of these gains were concentrated in small businesses, defined as those with 1 to 19 employees, which added a total of 58,000 positions.

This performance stands in contrast to the sector-specific data from December. During that month, employment increased most significantly in education and health services (+58,000), construction (+19,000), and information (+11,000). Conversely, job losses were recorded in professional and business services (-30,000) and manufacturing (-5,000).

Inflation and consumer confidence

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 2.9% in the 12 months ending January 2026. This figure marks a slight deceleration from the 3.0% increase recorded in December, yet it remains significantly above the analyst's expectation of 2.6%.

The BLS also reported that core Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, which exclude volatile energy and food prices, rose to 3.6% in the 12 months ending January 2026. This reflects a significant acceleration from the 3.3% recorded in December and remains well above economists' expectations of 3.0%.

Economists suggest that businesses likely transferred increased costs from import tariffs to consumers, a trend that indicates inflation may remain elevated in the coming months. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased 3.0% during the 12 months through December 2025. This figure exceeded analyst expectations of 2.9% and marked an acceleration from the 2.8% recorded in November.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2, rising from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January.

Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said that "confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat," adding that, “four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”   

Monetary policy and its impact on crypto 

The labour market and price data have direct influence over the "data-driven" decisions of FOMC members, which influence global interest rates, capital flows, asset allocations and asset pricing, including cryptocurrencies.  

Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor, underlined the importance of the NFP data release in his recent speech, "if the good labour market news of January is revised away or evaporates in February, it would support my position at the FOMC’s last meeting, that a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate was appropriate, and that such a cut should be made at the March meeting."  

Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, said in a speech at the National Association for Business Economics Conference that "stalling out at 3% is not a safe place to be for a myriad of reasons we know all too well," adding that "We need to make more progress."