This Week #7 – Monday 16 February

Recap

• Major coin prices stabilized with Bitcoin trading between $65k-$70k and Ether (ETH) hovering around $2,000.
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled that crypto’s post-election "Trump boom" may be over, warning that tighter liquidity and fading speculative flows are resetting market expectations.
• Crypto lending platform Blockfills suspended customer withdrawals as markets plunged, marking another stress event in the decentralized credit layer and raising fresh concerns about counterparty risk.
• While US investors pulled capital from crypto ETFs, some European allocators began eyeing the slump as a relative opportunity, highlighting a growing transatlantic divergence in sentiment.
• Tether burned $3.5bn in USDT as market stress accelerated redemptions, showing the defensive role stablecoins play during volatility spikes and the scale of liquidity shifts underway.
• The US added 130,000 jobs in January following data delays tied to the government shutdown, reinforcing a softening but still resilient labour market backdrop for risk assets.
• Hong Kong moved to introduce perpetual crypto contracts to accelerate digital asset growth, signalling Asia’s continued push to capture market share amid lingering US policy uncertainty.
• Leadership reshuffles swept through major crypto firms amid market turmoil, reflecting strategic repositioning as firms brace for a prolonged volatility regime.
• UNI trading volumes surged following a BlackRock investment and court win, showing that selective DeFi assets can still attract capital even as broader markets struggle.
• Prediction markets are evolving into an uncorrelated "shadow exchange", increasingly operating outside traditional asset-class correlations.
• Options positioning revealed traders remain defensive after the recent crash, with volatility structures implying continued caution rather than immediate rebound expectations. 

Top Gainers

• PIPPIN (pippin) +142%
• H (Humanity Protocol) +64%
• STABLE (Stable) +37%

Top Losers

• MYX (MYX Finance) -67%
• APT (Aptos) -13%
• IP (Story) -11%

Market Metrics

• Total Market Cap: $2.35tn (-1.6% vs last week)
• BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 58.8% last week)
• Fear and Greed Index: 12/100 (vs 9 last week)
• Alt Season Index: 30/100 (vs 23 last week)

ETF Flows

• BTC (Bitcoin): -$359.9mn (vs -$358.5mn previous week)
• ETH (Ether): -$161.2mn (vs -$170.4mn previous week) 

Futures (CME)

• BTC (Bitcoin): $68,835 (-2.03%) (as at Friday close)
• ETH (Ether): $2,048 (-0.68%) (as at Friday close)

Macro Summary

The geopolitical focus is on negotiations between Iran and the US. Trilateral Ukraine–Russia peace talks may resume with the US in Geneva, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn. 

Inflation prints by Canada, the UK, Japan and the US will also impact the macro environment. China will announce benchmark interest rates for February while the US will publish Q4 GDP figures.

This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):

Monday 16 February 

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 92.6mn ARB (~1.59% of circulating supply), worth roughly $10.06mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure, particularly if investor allocations are distributed into market liquidity. 

Economic data  

• 13:30 Canada inflation: Statistics Canada previously reported inflation at 2.8% in December, down from 2.9% in November. The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% in late January, citing base-year effects linked to last winter’s sales tax holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September.   

Tuesday 17 February

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 1/5 of ETH Denver 2026, one of the largest Ethereum-focused conferences.

Crypto event (token unlock) 

• Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~6.67% of circulating supply), worth roughly $115mn. With roughly a quarter of the allocation earmarked for an airdrop, the release may introduce direct short-term selling pressure. 

Wednesday 18 February

Central banks

• 19:00 US Fed FOMC Minutes: the committee issues minutes from the Jan 27-28 policy meeting where policymakers decided to keep rates on hold in the target range 3.50%-3.75%.    

Crypto event (token unlock) 

• MELANIA (MELANIA) Token Unlock: 400.0mn MELANIA (~40.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $46.09mn. The release represents a heavy increase relative to circulating supply and may introduce significant short-term selling pressure as tokens enter the market. 

Economic data

• 07:00 UK inflation: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides core consumer price data for January. December’s print was 3.4%. The data follow the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee's recent decision to keep rates on hold at 3.75% in a 5-4 split decision. Four members voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points. The BoE judged that the risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced and that on the basis of the current evidence, the Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further.     

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 2/5 of ETH Denver.

Thursday 19 February

Economic data

• 13:30 Philadelphia Fed Business Index: the regional reserve bank publishes its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for February. The prior month report showed that firms continued to report an increase in employment, prices and regional manufacturing activity. 

• 23:30 Japan inflation: January’s inflation data are due to be released, with economists forecasting a reading of 2.0%, down from 2.4% in December. The print will be of particular interest to the Bank of Japan as it contemplates further interest rate increases to normalize monetary policy. 

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 3/5 of ETH Denver.

Friday 20 February

Economic data 

• 13:30 US PCE inflation: the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports inflation for December related to personal consumption expenditure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in January. 

• 13:30 Q4 US GDP: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports its Q4 GDP estimate. Economists polled by Reuters expect a reading of 3.0%, down from 4.4% in Q3.  

Central banks

• 01:00 China's loan prime rate (LPR): Beijing reports the new monthly LPR for February. This benchmark lending rate functions as the country’s main reference rate for bank loans. China has left key lending rates unchanged for over half a year. 

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 4/5 of ETH Denver.

Crypto event (token unlock) 

• LayerZero (ZRO) Token Unlock: 25.7mn ZRO (~8.60% of circulating supply), worth roughly $52.09mn. The release may introduce notable short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply. 

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 5/5 of ETH Denver.