Recap
- Bitcoin wiped out its post-election “Trump pump” gains, sliding back to late-2024 levels as ETF outflows surged, leverage unwound and liquidity dried up, erasing more than $600bn in market value. BTC settled at about $70,000 over the weekend.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of China’s growing crypto challenge, pointing to Beijing’s push into digital finance as Washington struggles to finalize market-structure rules.
- Corporate bellwether Strategy posted a $12.6bn quarterly loss after Bitcoin’s slide hit earnings, sharpening scrutiny on debt-funded digital asset treasury strategies.
- Crypto firms sought compromise with US community banks in an effort to defuse tensions around stablecoin yields and preserve access to the banking system.
- The White House convened industry talks on stablecoin yield products, exposing a deepening policy rift between regulators, banks and digital asset issuers.
- Investor scepticism intensified as Tether’s valuation momentum stalled, raising questions about growth assumptions for the world’s dominant stablecoin issuer.
- Newly released Epstein files revealed early crypto-era connections that shaped Coinbase’s path to profitability, casting fresh light on the industry’s formative years.
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reframed Ethereum’s roadmap, shifting focus back to base-layer scaling and questioning the limits of rollup-centric design.
- Blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs joined the unicorn ranks as AI-powered tools accelerated crypto crime detection, underscoring compliance as a core growth pillar.
Top Gainers
- DCR (Decred) +29%
- H (Humanity Protocol) +26%
- MYX (MYX Finance) +23%
Top Losers
- STABLE (Stable) -27%
- XMR (Monero) -22%
- ZEC (Zcash) -21%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.39tn (-8.4% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 59.4% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 9/100 (vs 18 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 23/100 (vs 28 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$358.5mn (vs -$1.49bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$170.4mn (vs -$327.0mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $70,260 (-16.9%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,062 (-23.9%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
The market will continue to price in Japanese election results after Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide election win over the weekend. The results provide Takaichi with a mandate to implement expansionary fiscal policy in the heavily indebted country. This will be of particular interest to policymakers as potential intervention in the exchange rate looms and the yen continues to decline.
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will be shaped by negotiations between Iran and the US as military tensions rise. Iranian authorities on Sunday arrested three reformist figures on suspicion of plotting a coup d'état, according to local news agencies.
Ukraine-Russia peace talks are also expected to continue as Russia continues the bombardment of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that the US had suggested holding another round of talks in Miami this week, an offer that Kyiv has accepted.
The macro environment will be dominated on the data side by monetary statistics from Japan and China. This will be followed by US employment statistics, including delayed non-farm payroll data for January.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 9 February
Crypto event (conference)
- Liquidity Summit 2026 takes place in Hong Kong, bringing together hedge funds, market makers, asset managers, banks and exchanges to discuss institutional digital asset infrastructure, trade execution, custody, risk management and capital efficiency.
Economic data
23:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for January: Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity as yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
Tuesday 10 February
Central banks
- Federal Bank of New York Releases Q4 2025 Household Debt and Credit Report: the report includes mortgage balances, volume of mortgage originations, aggregate delinquency rates, housing debt and student loan debt.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/3 of Consensus Hong Kong 2026 bringing together global founders, investors, developers, and regulators to discuss blockchain, digital assets, Web3, DeFi and AI.
Wednesday 11 February
Economic data
- China Total Social Financing, M2 money supply, new loans: China publishes state financing statistics for December. Financing data capture overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance and broader global risk sentiment. Economists polled by Reuters expect Total Social Financing to be ¥2,000bn ($286bn) in January, down from ¥2,210bn ($356bn) in December.
13:30 US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the delayed data for January. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said late last month that "in the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening." He also said: "a good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well."
Crypto event (conference)
Day 2/3 of Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Thursday 12 February
Crypto event (earnings)
Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) releases its Q4 and FY 2025 financial results, after market close, followed by a webcast meeting at 14:30PT/22:30UTC to discuss the results.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.3mn APT (~1.48% of circulating supply), worth roughly $12.05mn. The cliff-style release may introduce short-term selling pressure as the full allocation enters circulation at once.
Crypto event (conference)
Day 3/3 of Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Friday 13 February
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro Area GDP employment, trade balance: Eurostat publishes GDP figures, along with employment for the Q4 and trade balance for December. Economists polled by Reuters expect for output growth to be 0.3%, flat from Q3.
13:30 US (core) CPI: January’s inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (other being unemployment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 0.3% in January.
Saturday 14 February
Crypto event (token unlock)
Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~2.82% of circulating supply), worth roughly $20.62mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure as the full allocation is distributed to community and ecosystem initiatives.
Sunday 15 February
Crypto event (token unlock)
Starknet (STRK) Token Unlock: 225.9mn STRK (~4.28% of circulating supply), worth roughly $11.25mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply, distributed to early contributors and investors.
