Recap
- The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75% as widely expected and started buying about $40bn of T-bills per month through new reserve-management purchases, a quiet return to balance-sheet expansion even as Chair Jerome Powell admitted jobs data has been overstated and political pressure is rising. Crypto’s total market cap still slipped about 3% overnight (UTC) as traders sold the news. Two weeks before the end of the year its value languishes below 1 Jan levels.
- The CFTC approved a pilot that lets regulated US derivatives brokers accept Bitcoin, Ether and USDC as collateral under strict reporting, segregation and risk rules, moving major coins and one large stablecoin closer to “normal” margin assets in supervised futures markets.
- The US Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) told banks to stop “debanking” lawful crypto firms and revived fair-access rules, while PNC Bank became the first major US bank to let its wealth clients trade Bitcoin directly on its own platform using Coinbase under new “riskless principal” guidance. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would lead a reform of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
- The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) paved the way for Wall Street’s infrastructure to move onchain when it authorized the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) to tokenize US securities in a live, three-year program. The central hub clears, settles and safeguards securities trades, processing trillions of dollars in transactions daily.
- Michael Saylor said major US banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citi are preparing to lend against Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs, shifting the focus from simple spot exposure to using Bitcoin as collateral so clients can raise cash without selling. Meanwhile, JPMorgan helped Galaxy issue corporate debt on a public blockchain.
- Standard Chartered halved its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000 and pushed its $500,000 call out to 2030, arguing the corporate digital-asset treasury (DAT) trade is effectively over and that upside now depends mainly on ETF demand. Institutions are splitting into two groups, with ETFs and crossover funds cutting risk into year-end while dealers, banks and tokenization players such as State Street and Galaxy push ahead with onchain liquidity funds and new settlement rails.
- China widened its crackdown by explicitly banning Real World Asset (RWA) tokens and ordering financial firms not to support any tokenized assets, sharpening the contrast with Hong Kong’s pro-RWA push as Beijing insists only the e-CNY is acceptable.
- The legendary fraudster Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison.
Macro Summary
The week in macro will be dominated by central bank events, following last week’s Fed rate cut. The Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are set to make their own decisions, probably in different directions.
While the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, markets have begun pricing in the possibility of a rate increase sometime next year. In an interview with Bloomberg, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said: “Both markets and survey participants expect that the next rate move is going to be a hike, albeit not anytime soon,” adding that she is “rather comfortable with those expectations.” Inflation in the euro area has remained stable, and economic activity has shown signs of improvement.
The BoE is expected to follow the US in cutting rates by 25 basis points, from 4.0% to 3.75%, although its Monetary Policy Committee remains even more divided than the Fed’s. As in the US, the BoE operates under a dual mandate and is contending with relatively high inflation alongside signs of a softening labour market.
Meanwhile, the BoJ is widely expected to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that “the real side of the economy is doing OK” and that underlying inflation is steadily moving toward the BoJ’s 2% target. The decision comes at a complicated moment: Japanese government bond yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, the yen remains weak and newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has unveiled a large stimulus package.
Other key releases include unemployment figures in the US and UK, as well as inflation data from the UK and the euro area.
The macro backdrop is further influenced by the Ukraine and Russia peace talks, continued trade disputes between the US and China, and Washington’s renewed pressure on Venezuela’s leadership.
Top Gainers
- M (MemeCore) +40%
- MERL (Merlin Chain) +30%
- ZEC (Zcash) +18%
Top Losers
- SPX (SPX6900) -15%
- KAS (Kaspa) -14%
- IP (Story) -13%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.01tn (-1.9% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 27/100 (vs 22 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 21/100 (vs 19 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$286.6mn (vs -$87.7mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$209.1mn (vs -$65.4mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $90,330 (+1.0%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $3,087 (+2.1%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 15 December
Economic data
- 13:30 Canada, inflation: Statistics Canada will publish CPI inflation data for November.
Crypto event (conference)
- The Crypto Task Force Roundtable on Financial Surveillance and Privacy takes place in Washington, featuring opening remarks from SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce, followed by panels with leading industry figures.
Crypto event (markets)
- Cboe Futures Exchange to offer trading in continuous futures for Bitcoin and Ether.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Starknet (STRK) Token Unlock: 225.9mn STRK (~4.95% of circulating supply), worth roughly $24.03mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
- Sei (SEI) Token Unlock: 113.0mn SEI (~1.81% of circulating supply), worth roughly $14.82mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 16 December
Economic data
- 07:00 UK, ILO Unemployment Rate: the UK publishes its unemployment rate and employment change, for October.
- 13:30 US, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate for November.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 92.6mn ARB (~1.68% of circulating supply), worth roughly $18.87mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 17 December
Economic data
- 07:00 UK, CPI: the UK publishes inflation data for November.
- 10:00 Euro Area, HICP Final: Eurostat publishes its final estimate of November’s inflation rate.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~8.16% of circulating supply), worth roughly $153mn. A significant portion of the allocation is reserved for airdrops, increasing the likelihood of short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 18 December
Economic data
- 13:30 US, CPI: the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes key inflation indicators for November.
Central banks
- 12:00 UK, BoE MPC Bank Rate: the Monetary Policy Committee announces its Bank Rate decision. A Reuters poll of economists suggests a 25bp cut from 4.0% to 3.75%.
- 13:15 Euro Area, ECB Deposit Rate: the European Central Bank announces its key Deposit Rate. A Reuters poll of economists suggests it will be held at 2.0%.
Friday 19 December
Central banks
- Japan, BoJ Rate Decision: the Bank of Japan announces its key rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect interest rates to increase from 0.5% to 0.75%.
Saturday 20 December
Crypto event (token unlock)
- LayerZero (ZRO) Token Unlock: 25.7mn ZRO (~23.13% of circulating supply), worth roughly $36.24mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
