Standard Chartered Slashes Bitcoin Outlook as ‘Treasury Trade’ Dies

In a research note Tuesday, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital asset research, cut his end-2026 Bitcoin target to $150,000, down sharply from a previous forecast of $300,000.

The revision comes as the crypto market struggles to recover from a brutal Q4 correction. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen roughly 29% since its 6 Oct peak, dragging the broader digital asset market down to a capitalization of just over $3tn.

The "Strategy Trade" is over 

Kendrick’s downgrade marks a fundamental shift in the thesis. Previously, the bank argued that "Digital Asset Treasury" (DAT) companies, firms copying Strategy by putting Bitcoin on their balance sheets, would drive a structural supply squeeze.

That trade is now dead.

"We think buying by Bitcoin DATs is likely over, as valuations no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion," Kendrick wrote. "As a result, we now think future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only – ETF buying."

The new timeline 

With the corporate bid fading, Standard Chartered has pushed its long-term targets further out:

• 2026 Target: Cut to $150,000 (from $300,000).
• $500,000 Milestone: Pushed back to 2030 (previously expected by 2028).
• Near-Term: The bank adjusted its end-2025 target to roughly $100,000, acknowledging that the coin, currently trading near $90,000, has lost the momentum needed for a sprint to $200,000 this year.

The verdict is stark: The "super-cycle" fueled by corporate adoption hasn't materialized. The market is now entirely dependent on traditional ETF inflows to grind higher.

Note: The top row presents renewed Bitcoin price targets, while the second row presents the previous target levels.