Recap
- Bitcoin rebounded above $94,000 before hovering around the $90k mark over the weekend, leaving the total crypto market cap close to $3tn. Trading was buoyed by the Fed ending its QT (quantitative tightening) programme on 1 Dec, as well as Trump hinting at a more dovish Fed chair after Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
- Institutional asset managers also made supportive actions and comments. Vanguard opened spot crypto ETFs to 50mn clients while Bank of America let advisors allocate 1-4% of its wealth management clients’ portfolios into crypto. Amundi introduced a tokenized share class of its euro money market fund on the public Ethereum network, so investors can hold it either through normal accounts or as blockchain tokens.
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said crypto tokenization is approaching a seminal moment, comparing it with the explosive growth of the early internet. The head of the world’s largest asset management firm also dubbed Bitcoin as an “asset of fear”, saying that investors use it as a shield against geopolitics and market stress.
- Options markets showed a split picture, with junk bond and equity ETFs heavily hedged for a drop while BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and silver options tilted bullish, suggesting institutions worry about credit trouble but still expect Bitcoin to hold up as a “hard money” asset.
- US regulators are starting to replace “regulation by enforcement” with clearer rules, as the FDIC confirmed it will publish a GENIUS Act rulebook for bank-issued stablecoins “later this month” and the CFTC gave firms more time and process protections, giving big banks a more straightforward path into crypto.
- Japan also took more supportive steps around crypto. It plans to scrap its 55% top tax rate on crypto and move to a flat 20% from 2026, putting digital assets on the same footing as stocks and trying to pull trading back from offshore venues under tighter market rules.
- Conversely, China reaffirmed its crypto ban with a new central bank warning that called stablecoins a money-laundering risk and told officials to cut links to offshore platforms, even as it promotes the e-CNY as its preferred digital currency.
Macro summary
The US Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to dominate the week amid a lighter-than-usual economic data calendar. PMIs, import prices, jobless claims and sentiment will provide the latest clues on the state of the US economy after weeks of patchy releases. Canada also sets monetary policy, with an interest rate hold expected. In Europe, German releases industrial orders and trade figures, followed by a key inflation update. France and Spain also release data on consumer prices. In Asia, markets will watch Japan’s money-supply data as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) edges toward potential tightening, meanwhile investors will keep an eye on China’s latest consumer and produce prices. The UK completes the week with fresh economic data.
Top Gainers
- 2Z (DoubleZero) +22%
- BCH (Bitcoin Cash) +10%
- AAVE (Aave) +5.3%
Top Losers
- CC (Canton) -24%
- ZEC (Zcash) -20%
- IP (Story) -18%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.07tn (-0.1% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 58.7% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 22/100 (vs 20 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 19/100 (vs 23 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$87.7mn (vs +$70.2mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$65.4mn (vs +$312.6mn previous week)
Futures
- BTC (Bitcoin): $89,600 (-1.6%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $3,030 (-0.6%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 8 December
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany Industrial Orders: Economists expect a 0.4% increase for October. In September, orders rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.1%, driven by higher demand for cars and electrical equipment in Europe’s largest economy.
- 23:50 Japan Money Supply: M2 - a broad gauge of liquidity in the financial system - will be a key metric to watch among the November money supply data. The release comes as the Bank of Japan weighs a potential rate hike and the government prepares for a new round of fiscal spending.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/2 of Bitcoin MENA: The agenda promotes the UAE as a crypto hub and features Bitcoin treasury companies.
- Abu Dhabi Finance Week opens, including events on blockchain, web3, stablecoins and tokenization of RWAs.
Tuesday 9 December
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany Trade Balance: Exports from Europe’s largest economy rose 1.4% in September from the previous month, though they remain below their levels in March 2025, before President Donald Trump announced tariffs on all countries on “Liberation Day.” Germany posted a trade surplus of €15.3bn in September, down from €18.0bn a year earlier.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/2 of Bitcoin MENA: The agenda includes Simon Gerovich of Metaplanet, Strategy's Michael Saylor and Binance founder CZ.
Wednesday 10 December
Economic data
- 01:30 China inflation figures: China publishes CPI, PPI data for November. China’s producer price deflation eased in October and consumer prices returned to positive territory as authorities stepped up efforts to curb excess capacity and fierce price competition. But despite the improvement in headline figures, deflationary pressures persist, and Beijing may still need to deploy additional measures to bolster demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
Central banks
- 14:45 Bank of Canada rate decision: The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates in December, as stronger-than-forecasted GDP figures briefly lifted headline growth but masked underlying softness.
- 19:00 US Fed FOMC rate decision: The meeting itself, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later, will stream live on the Federal Reserve’s website and YouTube channel.
Crypto event (conference)
- DogeCon 2025 in Abu Dhabi cohosted by Solana Foundation, bringing together a high-profile lineup from ecosystem leaders.
Thursday 11 December
Economic data
- 13:30 US weekly Initial Jobless Claims: The data will compare with the week ending 29 Nov, during which unemployment beneficiaries dropped to a seasonally adjusted 191,000.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/3 of Solana Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi.
Friday 12 December
Economic data
- 07:00 – 08:00 Germany, France, Spain, HICP inflation: Large European economies report inflation figure estimates for November. The 12-month EU-harmonized inflation in Germany, France and Spain in October was 2.6%, 0.8% and 3.2% respectively.
- 07:00 UK GDP and related economic data: The UK Office for National Statistics publishes key economic indicators after the government's Autumn Budget presented to the public in late November sparked high political drama over its fiscal policy agenda.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.3mn APT (~1.57% of circulating supply), worth roughly $22.54mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure as around half of the allocation is directed to core contributors, founders and private investors.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/3 of Solana Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi.
Saturday 13 December
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/3 of Solana Breakpoint 2025 in Abu Dhabi.
Sunday 14 December
Crypto event (token unlock)
- PUMP (PUMP) Token Unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~2.82% of circulating supply), worth roughly $32.28mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure as the entire allocation is directed to community and ecosystem initiatives.
