Recap
- The crypto market declined for a third straight week, erasing this year's gains. Bitcoin slid below $93,000 on Sunday to its lowest level in more than six months, before edging higher at the start of the following day.
- Investor risk aversion quickly overtook the positive sentiment around the re-opening of the US government. An absence of government-issued economic data has clouded the outlook for the world's largest economy during the 43-day shutdown.
- The CME FedWatch tool on Friday showed that the US Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut rates at its next FOMC monetary policy meeting in December.
- Institutional appetite appeared to be weakening as the pace of buying exchange-traded products and digital asset treasury stocks slowed. On Thursday, investors made the largest Bitcoin ETFs withdrawal since February.
- Still, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) lifted traders' spirits, saying it plans to authorize leveraged spot crypto trading on regulated exchanges as early as next month. Canary Capital launched the first US spot XRP ETF (XRPC) on Nasdaq.
- Dubai made the first Digital Dirham payment, meanwhile the global e-commerce giant Alibaba has reportedly started working with US bank JPMorgan on a digital dollar pilot. Coinbase called off its planned $2 billion acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK.
- The largest stablecoin issuer Tether plans a major expansion in lending to the commodities trade, its CEO told Bloomberg.
- Taiwan opened a debate on whether Bitcoin belongs in its strategic reserves.
Macro summary
This week features a broad mix of global economic updates and central bank signals that may help clarify the outlook for growth, inflation, and monetary policy. With the US, China, Japan and some major European countries releasing indicators that reflect shifting momentum in activity and price pressures, investors will be focused on how these developments shape expectations for future policy moves and overall economic resilience.
Weekly Gainers
- TEL (Telcoin) +90%
- STRK (Starknet) +47%
- AB (AB) +25%
Weekly Losers
- ICP (Internet Computer) -37%
- FIL (Filecoin) -29%
- AERO (Aerodrome Finance) -25%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.20tn (-10.6% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.8% (vs 59.2% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 18/100 (vs 29 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 31/100 (vs 33 last week)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 17 November
Economic data
- 09:00 Italy preliminary HICP for October: The harmonized inflation rate decreased to -0.2% in October from 1.3% in September, according to the National Institute of Statistics, as cited by TradingEconomics.
- 13:30 Canada, CPI (Bank of Canada) for October: Inflation increased more than expected to 2.4% in September, compared with 1.9% in August, according to Statistics Canada. Despite that, the Bank of Canada cut its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% last month.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: Unlock 164.7mn tokens (~8.16% of circulating supply), worth roughly $178mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure as distribution is split between early protocol users and treasury.
Crypto event (conference)
- Devconnect 2025 opens in Buenos Aires, running through 22 Nov. One of the largest Ethereum ecosystem gatherings of the year, key participants include core Ethereum researchers, client teams (Geth, Nethermind, Erigon), L2 founders, staking operators, rollup developers, and the broader DeFi community, featuring protocol-level discussions and roadmap previews.
Tuesday 18 November
Economic data
- 23:50 Japan, Trade Balance Total for October: Japan releases trade balance figures for October in Yen. Economists estimate a negative trade balance of JPY280.1bn ($1.8bn) vs -JPY234.6bn reported for the prior month, according to TradingEconomics.
Wednesday 19 November
Economic data
- 07:00 UK inflation figures for October: The surprise September print of 3.8% may drop to 3.6%, according to a consensus estimate produced by TradingEconomics. The new Office for National Statistics data come after the Bank of England recently decided to keep rates on hold at 4.0% in a 5-4 split decision a week before the government's Autumn Budget later in November.
- 10:00 Harmonized inflation for the Euro Area for October: Eurostat will publish a final print for the Euro Area inflation for October.
Central banks
- 19:00 United States FOMC minutes: The FOMC minutes, released about three weeks after each policy meeting, will provide a detailed account of how policymakers assessed inflation, employment, and financial conditions, as well as the degree of consensus or disagreement within the committee.
Thursday 20 November
Central Banks
- 01:00-01:15 China 1Y, 5Y Loan Prime Rate for November: Beijing will report the new monthly LPR for November. It's China’s benchmark lending rate, functioning as the country’s main reference rate for bank loans. China has left key lending rates unchanged for the last five last months.
Economic data
- 13:30 Philly Fed Business Index for November: The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey follows an October report showing mixed regional manufacturing activity, with the general activity index turning negative as shipments weakened but new orders rose. Despite current softness, firms remain optimistic about future growth.
- 15:00 US Existing Home Sales for October: Sales rose to a seven-month high in September, the National Association of Realtors reported earlier, driven mainly by higher-income buyers benefiting from stock market gains. However, affordability issues and economic uncertainty, including weak job growth and import tariffs, continue to constrain demand among lower- and middle-income households.
- 15:00 Euro Area Consumer Confidence (Flash) for November: Economic sentiment improved to -14.2 in October from -14.9 in September, according to Eurostat.
- 23:30 Japan CPI/inflation for October: September's 2.9% core inflation figure may increase to 3.0%, according to a consensus estimate produced by TradingEconomics. That would suggest that Japan was making progress towards meeting conditions for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, although the government has indicated a preference to avoid a premature rate hike, according to comments made by officials to the nation's parliament on 13 Nov.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Layer Zero (ZRO) Token Unlock: Unlock 25.7mn tokens (~23.13% of circulating supply), worth roughly $40.23mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure as distribution is split between strategic partners and core contributors.
Crypto event (conference)
- The DeFi Security Summit (DSS) opens in Buenos Aires, running 20–21 Nov, bringing together top security researchers and protocol founders. Speakers commonly include white-hat hackers, auditors (Trail of Bits, OpenZeppelin), bridge architects, MEV researchers, and L1/L2 core devs.
Friday 21 November
Economic data
- 00:00 UK GfK Consumer Confidence for November + 07:00 UK Retail Sales for October: The UK will release two key measures of consumer activity – consumer confidence and retail sales. Retail sales growth is expected to slow to 0.1% in October, down from 0.5% in September, according to a consensus estimate produced by TradingEconomics. That would indicate softer momentum in household spending.
- 08:15 France, Business Climate, Manufacturing and Overall, November: France’s manufacturing business climate indicator rose to 101 in October 2025 from 97 in September, moving above its long-term average of 100 for the first time since early March 2024. It may slip to 100, according to a consensus estimate produced by TradingEconomics. Bank of France Governor and ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau has recently described the French economy as "fairly resilient".
- 08:15 – 09:00 Germany, France, Euro Area, United Kingdom, United States, HCOB/S&P Flash PMI for November: Main Euro economies will publish flash PMI estimates – a key measure of the health of an economy derived from a survey of business executives.
- 13:30 Canada Retail Sales for September: Statistics Canada's retail sales may slip 0.7% in September, after growing 1% in August from July, according to a consensus estimate published by TradingEconomics.
- 15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final figure: The preliminary outcome of the University of Michigan's survey showed a decline to 50.3 in November from the previous month's 53.6, with households expressing concern about the economic impact of the extended government shutdown.
Note: US Economic Data Schedule
The Bureau of Labor Statistics may publish an updated schedule of releases in coming days for key data releases, including Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, CPI and PCE inflation data.
