Recap
- The crypto market swelled on Monday morning as comments by Senator John Thune about a deal "coming together" to end the US government shutdown and a presidential pledge to offer most Americans $2,000 from import tariffs buoyed risk assets.
- The total market value has gained in three of the past five days, with Bitcoin then surpassing $106,000 on Monday. Still, BTC fell more than 5% throughout last week.
- A pending US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs could deliver a $140bn refund to importers and bolster risk assets, including Bitcoin.
- Standard Chartered CEO predicted that all money will become digital and all global transactions will settle on blockchain, signaling a complete rewiring of the financial system.
- The cost of producing one Bitcoin has risen to $113,000, putting pressure on mining companies already struggling with rising energy prices and tighter capital markets.
- Privacy coins like Dash and Zcash posted significant double-digit gains, defying the broader market slump due to increased demand for transactional anonymity.
Top Gainers
- SOON (SOON) +193%
- DCR (Decred) +98%
- ICP (Internet Computer) +77%
Top Losers
- TAO (Bittensor) -22%
- IP (Story) -22%
- SPX (SPX6900) -19%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.58tn (-0.01% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.2% (vs 59.6% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 29/100 (vs 36 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 33/100 (vs 26 last week)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Note: due to the US government shutdown, economic data released by the US government may be postponed. We may update this article during the week.
Tuesday 11 November
Economic data
- 07:00 UK Employment data including Unemployment Rate (September), Employment Change (September), Average Earnings (September) and HMRC Payrolls change (October): ONS in cooperation with HMRC will publish monthly labour market data. The release will shape the thinking of Bank of England, HM Treasury and OBR. Bank of England in the Monetary Policy Report published last week acknowledged there is slack in the labour market as the number of job vacancies has fallen and employment growth has stalled.
- 08:30 PBoC monthly statistics about China for October: Consensus estimates for key figures include: Total Social Financing (consensus estimate CNY1230bn), M2 Money Supply YY (8.1%), New Yuan Loans (500.0bn), Outstanding Loan Growth (6.6%). Economists predict relatively moderate increase in the Money supply (M2) and rather constrained new credits issuance as the seasonal effects and underlying weak credit demand continues. Capital flows may be cautious if credit dynamics are weak implying less cross-border liquidity, potentially more FX volatility or abrupt moves if sentiment changes.
- 10:00 Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment: ZEW publishes its Financial Market Survey for November. The consensus estimate is for 42.5, with Current Conditions at -75.0. Data will indicate inflationary pressure risks, which could influence the ECB decision-making given the significance of German economy. A higher-than-expected sentiment reading also tends to strengthen the euro.
- 23:50 Japan, M2 Money Supply, Broad Money (October): The BoJ will publish M2 and broad money supply in the economy. Japan’s banking system is flush with reserves due to years of BOJ asset purchases. Rising M2 in Japan, combined with low domestic yields, fuels the “yen carry trade.” Investors borrow cheap yen and invest abroad in higher-yielding assets, effectively exporting Japanese liquidity. As a result, higher Japanese M2 growth often coincides with greater global risk-taking and stronger capital flows. Japan is also second largest creditor nation in the world.
Wednesday 12 November
Economic data
- 07:00 Germany CPI and HICP Final (October): Europe's largest economy will provide final estimates of the inflation figures for October. Economists forecast 2.3% year-on-year inflation – above the ECB’s target of 2% over medium term.
Government
- 10:00 Eurogroup meetings: In the regular format, Ministers discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation of international meetings. In the inclusive format Ministers plan to discuss digital finance, digital euro update and stablecoin developments.
Central Banks
- 18:30 Bank of Canada’s summary of monetary policy deliberations by Governing Council for the policy decision that was announced on 29 Oct. In the meeting BoC reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. These summaries reflect the deliberations of the Bank of Canada's Governing Council that lead to monetary policy decisions.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: Unlock of 11.3mn tokens (~1.57% of circulating supply), worth roughly $32.4mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure depending on market liquidity and distribution.
Thursday 13 November
Economic data
- 07:00 UK GDP Q3: ONS will publish September’s GDP estimates. Along with employment numbers published on Tuesday, figures will shape views of the main policymakers. The data release is especially significant due to the fiscal policy rules that HM Treasury must adhere to, which are partly determined by GDP growth figures. This will have an impact on the 2025 Budget that Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the on 26 Nov, and given the challenging economic backdrop, it is widely anticipated to feature tax increases and cuts to public spending.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Avalanche (AVAX) Token Unlock: Unlock of 1.66mn tokens (~0.39% of circulating supply), worth roughly $27mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure depending on market liquidity and distribution.
Crypto event (conference)
- Bitcoin Amsterdam opens, running through 14 Nov. Speakers include the Winkelvoss twins (Gemini), Adam Back (Blockstream), David Bailey (KindlyMD/$NAKA), Jack Mallers (21Capital/Strike).
Friday 14 November
Economic data
- 07:45 – 8:00 France and Spain: HICP and CPI (October): Two of the four largest European economies, France and Spain, will report final inflation figures for October. France was running relatively low inflation of 1.0% in September while Spain posted much higher CPI reading of 3.1%. Figures will be closely followed by ECB and the markets.
- 10:00 Euro Area GDP Flash Q3: Eurostat will publish GDP and unemployment flash estimates for Q3 along with trade balance for September. Economists forecast 1.3% GDP growth year-on-year, flat from the previous quarter. The print has potential to impact policymakers and move stocks, bond yields and euro.
- 10:00 Spain, Consumer Confidence (October): The fourth-largest EU economy will provide consumer confidence figures. Economists forecast 81.0 after posting 81.5 in September. Consumption accounts for more than half of the Spain’s GDP. (Note: an earlier version of this article scheduled this item for Monday 10 Nov; it was moved to Friday 14 Nov after our information source was updated).
Crypto event (conference)
- Adopting Bitcoin El Salvador opens, running through 15 Nov.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: Unlock of 10bn tokens (~2.82% of circulating supply), worth roughly $36.3mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure depending on market liquidity and distribution.
- Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: Unlock of 92.64mn tokens (~1.68% of circulating supply), worth roughly $24.5mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure depending on market liquidity and distribution.
Note: Suspended data releases due to the government shutdown:
Federal agencies that track US economic activity – including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau – have halted most data collection and publication for the duration of the government shutdown, hence the following data releases have been suspended:
- Industrial Production, September
- Housing Starts and Building Permits, September
- New Home Sales, September
- New Orders (Non)durable Goods, September
- Factory Orders, September
- Initial Jobless Claims, 27 Oct, w/e
- Non-Farm Payrolls, September
- Unemployment Rate, September
- Retail Sales, September
- PPI Machine Manufacturing, September
- Core CPI, October
