Recap
- The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady at 2.15%, as expected, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.00% and announced plans to halt quantitative tightening (QT) on 1 Dec.
- Recent data show that Bitcoin's correlation with gold and equities has dropped to a one-year low, suggesting a potential decoupling from traditional markets.
- The US and China agreed to a one-year trade truce after high-level talks, aiming to de-escalate tensions and pause new tariffs.
- The first exchange-traded fund (ETF) to incorporate staking emerged last week, underscoring growing institutional acceptance of altcoins and staking as a credible asset class.
Top Gainers
- DASH (Dash) +79%
- ICP (Internet Computer) +30%
- ZEC (Zcash) +29%
Top Losers
- 2Z (DoubleZero) -31%
- ENA (Ethena) -26%
- SPX (SPX6900) -22%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.6tn (-6.9% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.6% (vs 59.0% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 36/100 (vs 36 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 26/100 (vs 27 last week)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Note: due to the US government shutdown, economic data released by the US government may be postponed. We may update this article during the week.
Monday 3 November
Economic data
- 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (October): A weaker-than-expected reading could lift crypto by reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts and softer growth. Stronger data may strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Tuesday 4 November
Crypto event (conference)
- SmartCon opens in New York City as part of New York Blockchain Week. The agenda includes speakers from crypto companies, Wall Street firms and the White House.
Central banks
- 11:35 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on bank supervision and monetary policy at the Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid. Remarks may be streamed.
Economic data
- 15:00 US JOLTs Job Openings (September): A decline in job openings would support the “bad news is good news” narrative, potentially boosting crypto on rising rate-cut bets. Persistent labour demand may dampen hopes for policy easing and weigh on risk sentiment. Note: release subject to US shutdown.
Wednesday 5 November
Crypto event (conference)
- Day two of SmartCon in New York City.
Economic data
- 13:15 US ADP National Employment Report (October): A boost in non-farm jobs, according to this private sector data report, would suggest a more positive outlook for the US economy, tempering some of the uncertainty conveyed by the Fed’s narrative. However, investors typically also rely on the government’s jobs figures.
- 15:00 US ISM Services PMI (October): A slowdown in services activity could indicate cooling economic momentum and bolster crypto on easing expectations. A firm reading would reinforce a soft-landing view and likely cap near-term upside in digital assets.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: Unlock of 332.9mn tokens (~4.65% of circulating supply), worth roughly $134mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure depending on market liquidity and distribution.
Thursday 6 November
Central banks
- ECB Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, day one. The event brings together academics, market practitioners and central bankers. Some sessions are streamed online.
- 12:00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: The BoE is expected to hold rates. A dovish shift or hints of future cuts could boost risk assets and crypto; a hawkish tone may weigh on sentiment and liquidity.
- 20:30 Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks on central banking and the future of payments at the Bank of Canada Annual Economic Conference in Ottawa. Remarks may be streamed.
Friday 7 November
Economic data
- 03:00 China Balance of Trade (October): A larger surplus may calm growth concerns and support risk assets if it points to greater export demand. Weak trade figures or renewed US-China tensions could spur volatility and weigh on crypto sentiment.
- 15:00 US Unemployment Numbers (October): A rise in unemployment or weaker payroll growth would likely boost crypto on increased expectations of Fed easing. Strong jobs data, however, could temper that outlook and drive near-term downside for Bitcoin and risk assets. Note: release subject to US shutdown.
- 15:00 US Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation surveys: the data may give traders a steer on these significant indicators of the health of the US economy. Figures may influence the perception of how monetary policymakers respond.
Central banks
- ECB Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, day two.
- 20:00 Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks on stablecoins and monetary policy and the BCVC Summit 2025, in New York.
Crypto event (token burn)
- Binance may conduct its Q3 token burn of BNB, a historically market-moving event often aligned with onchain volume metrics, expected around 7 or 8 Nov.
