Recap
- US and Chinese officials held talks in Malaysia over the weekend prior as the leaders of the two countries prepare to meet in the coming days. A constructive encounter would cool the trade war, potentially boosting risk appetite among investors.
- US inflation crept up to 3.0% in September, slightly below a 3.1% consensus estimate, amid President Trump's ongoing global tariffs assault.
- Trump pardoned former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. The executive known as "CZ" has already served jail time after pleading guilty in November 2023 to violating the Bank Secrecy Act by causing the exchange operator Binance to fail to implement an effective anti-money laundering programme. News of the pardon triggered a surge in Binance's native token, BNB, past $1,150.
- The US regulators SEC and CFTC said they’re aiming to complete key crypto oversight milestones by year-end, including regulating spot markets and creating safe harbour exemptions, despite delays caused by the US government shutdown.
- Top crypto executives met in Washington to push for the stalled CLARITY Act, though deep partisan divisions over the regulation of decentralized finance (DeFi) make its passage highly unlikely this year.
- Major financial institutions, including stock-exchange owner Nasdaq, are expanding their digital-asset push, with the market cap of tokenized assets growing steadily and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink declaring the era of asset tokenization has begun.
Top Gainers
- H (Humanity Protocol) +111% [corrected from 406% earlier]
- VIRTUAL (Virtuals Protocol) +92%
- ZEC (Zcash) +38%
Top Losers
- TAO (Bittensor) -8%
- XPL (Plasma) -7%
- TRX (TRON) -6%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.87tn (+5.3% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.0% (vs 58.9% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 36/100 (vs 27 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 27/100 (vs 27 last week)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 27 October
Economic data
- 09:00 Ifo Business Climate Index: A reading above the previous 87.8 level would imply optimism in business conditions in Germany, Europe’s largest economy; expectations already lean towards a slight increase.
Tuesday 28 October
Economic data
- 09:00 ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations: Median consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone increased to 2.8% in August 2025, the highest in three months. A weaker survey result may inform the ECB’s decision-making over whether to maintain or ease monetary policy towards a rate cut.
Crypto event (conference)
- 28-29 Oct Blockchain Life takes place in Dubai. Some 15,000 attendees are expected, according to the organizers.
Wednesday 29 October
Central banks
- 13:45 Bank of Canada interest rate decision: All eyes will be on the later outcome of the BoC’s counterpart in Washington D.C., although the US and Canada are massive trading partners and continue to trade blows over tariffs, making economic and fiscal developments both sides of the border of significant interest.
- 18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision: Markets are pricing in a 25bp rate cut amid a data blackout from the government shutdown. A dovish move could lift crypto through improved liquidity conditions, but an outsized cut may raise recession fears and trigger short-term volatility.
Thursday 30 October
Central banks
- 03:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision: A rate hike could strengthen the yen and unwind the global carry trade, typically weighing on crypto, while a rate hold would ease pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
- 13:15 ECB interest rate decision: The ECB will likely keep euro zone borrowing costs at 2%, now and perhaps for months (or even years, according to some recent surveys), meaning investors aren’t fixated on this week’s verdict. However, the situation is not straightforward for ECB President Christine Lagarde. Europe is caught between a US-China trade spat, juggling with Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs and responding to ongoing fiscal and political uncertainty in France.
Economic data
- 09:00 Germany GDP Growth Rate: The numbers precede the European Union-wide data an hour later with the bloc’s largest economy weighing heavily on the outcome.
- 10:00 EU GDP Growth Rate: Strong growth would support risk sentiment and potentially lift crypto alongside equities, while weak data could reinforce stagflation concerns and pressure digital assets.
Friday 31 October
Economic data
- 10:00 EU Inflation Rate YoY (Flash): A softer print could revive expectations for ECB easing and boost crypto markets, whereas hotter inflation would likely dampen rate-cut hopes and weigh on risk assets.
Saturday 1 November
Crypto event (token unlock)
- SUI Token Unlock: Unlock of 55.6mn tokens (~1.53% of circulating supply), worth roughly $139mn. Could introduce short-term selling pressure depending on distribution and market liquidity.
- Solana (SOL) Token Unlock: Unlock of 12.7k tokens (< 0.01% of circulating supply), worth roughly $2.46mn. Could introduce short-term selling pressure depending on distribution and market liquidity.
Note: Many key US macro indicators remain delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, leaving markets highly sensitive to central bank guidance.
