Recap
- Risk assets slid as investors digested Trump's contradictions around his intentions around Greenland and as other political leaders debated the erosion of a rules-based world order at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The S&P 500 index of US equities fell 2% from the prior week to Tuesday's close (it was closed for a holiday on Monday). Bitcoin slumped more than 6% over the same period.
- The moves were compounded by Japan’s bond shock, where the 40-year yield hit 4% for the first time, reviving fears of an unwinding of the yen carry trade. Markets stabilized before crypto assets declined again on Sunday, pushing Bitcoin below $86,000 for the first time in over a month.
- Market structure moved further onchain as the NYSE said it is seeking approval for 24/7 trading and instant blockchain settlement of tokenized shares and ETFs, signalling a shift toward continuous equity markets.
- US crypto regulation fractured further as Senate Republicans revived a CFTC-led market structure bill, while the CFTC chair signalled a move away from enforcement-led regulation toward formal rulemaking.
- Institutional product development continued to evolve as Nomura’s Laser Digital launched a natively tokenized Bitcoin yield fund, reinforcing the shift beyond passive ETF exposure.
- Blockchain settlement edged closer to US Treasury markets after F/m Investments filed to record its $6.3bn Treasury bill ETF on a blockchain using the same CUSIP as traditional shares.
- Corporate balance sheets remained an active source of demand, with Strategy deploying $2.1bn into Bitcoin near $95,000 despite ongoing price consolidation.
- Ethereum activity hit record levels, though post-Fusaka usage was largely driven by address-poisoning spam rather than genuine Layer 2 or institutional demand.
- Stablecoins again showed their defensive utility as political unrest and military escalation in Venezuela drove a rush into USDT, accelerating the collapse in confidence in the bolívar.
Macro Summary
Macro forces will be influenced by ongoing tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland and the political fallout from Davos. Trump also faces growing discontent among both Democrats and Republicans over the handling of his immigration crackdown, following the killing of a second person by federal agents in Minneapolis. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after the US president warned that an “armada” of American warships was heading toward Iran. Meanwhile, trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US and Russia are expected to continue in Abu Dhabi on 1 Feb.
Policy discussions are expected to be dominated by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with markets widely anticipating that rates will be left unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 2.25% and publish its Monetary Policy Report.
Macro data releases this week include Consumer Confidence figures from the US, Euro area GDP and a Japanese data release that includes, inflation, GDP, retail sales and employment.
Top Gainers
- RIVER (River) +157%
- KAIA (Kaia) +43%
- CC (Canton) +19%
Top Losers
- DASH (Dash) -25%
- IP (Story) -23%
- XMR (Monero) -22%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.92tn (-8.0% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.3% (vs 59.0% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 34/100 (vs 49 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 29/100 (vs 26 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.33bn (vs +$1.42bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$611.2mn (vs +$479.0mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $89,500 (-6.4%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,940 (-10.9%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Tuesday 27 January
Economic data
- 15:00 US consumer confidence: the Conference Board publishes initial consumer confidence figures for January. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a reading of 90.1 compared with 89.1 in December. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption accounts for 67.9% of GDP.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Jupiter (JUP) Token Unlock: 53.5mn JUP (~1.66% of circulating supply), worth roughly $10.39mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 28 January
Central banks
14:45 Bank of Canada rate decision: it is widely expected that BoC will keep the rates at 2.25% as inflation remains close to 2%. “If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, the Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2 per cent while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment,” the BoC said in the statement after the last decision in October. Inflation was 2.4% in December, according to Statistics Canada.
19:00 US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (19:30). Unlike the previous meeting, the outcome is expected to be less contentious, as policymakers assess the risks of a softening labour market alongside inflation.
Crypto event (conference)
Day 1/3 of WallStreetBets Live, Miami. The event focuses on retail trading culture, market structure, fintech innovation, and crypto-native platforms.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Sui (SUI) Token Unlock: 21.4mn SUI (~0.58% of circulating supply), worth roughly $31.94mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 29 January
Crypto event (token unlock)
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock: 9.9mn HYPE (~3.66% of circulating supply), worth roughly $211mn. The release may introduce significant short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply.
Crypto event (conference)
Day 2/3 of WallStreetBets Live, Miami.
TOK26: London Tokenisation Summit.
Economic data
- 23:30-23:50 Japan CPI, employment, retail sales data: Japan publishes key economic indicators amongst which the Tokyo CPI will be the most impactful. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes most volatile food components, to be 2.2% in January, down from 2.3% in December. The last Bank of Japan outlook statement noted that it expects inflation to “continue rising moderately”.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/6 of Satoshi Roundtable XII in Dubai. The invitation-only gathering of Bitcoin developers, miners, investors, and infrastructure leaders holds closed-door discussions on Bitcoin protocol development and long-term network strategy.
Friday 30 January
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro Area GDP: Eurostat publishes preliminary GDP figures for Q4. Economists polled by Reuters expect output growth of 0.3%, similar to Q3.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Lighter (LIT) Token Unlock: 125.0mn LIT (~50% of circulating supply), worth roughly $225mn. The release could add notable near-term supply as tokens are distributed across the ecosystem.
Crypto event (conference)
Day 3/3 of WallStreetBets Live, Miami.
Day 2/6 of Satoshi Roundtable XII in Dubai.
Saturday 31 January
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/6 of Satoshi Roundtable XII in Dubai.
Sunday 1 February
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 4/6 of Satoshi Roundtable XII in Dubai.
