Recap
- Crypto markets ended January under pressure despite supportive political tailwinds. On Monday 2 Feb Bitcoin slid to its lowest price since 7 April 2025 as regulatory progress and dollar decay failed to translate into sustained spot demand.
- US President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signalling a potential regime shift toward a more White House-aligned monetary policy as scrutiny of central bank independence intensifies.
- As gold surged past $5,600 on accelerating de-dollarization and reserve realignment, crypto lagged as a defensive hedge. That seemed to reinforce a growing divergence between Bitcoin’s risk-sensitive behaviour and gold’s role as neutral, crisis-proof collateral, even as tokenized gold quietly moved onchain. The precious metal nonetheless declined into this week, leaving investors unable to find a consistent comparative narrative.
- US crypto regulation inched forward as a proposed bill from Republicans on the Senate Agriculture Committee progressed with votes split on party lines, reinforcing the absence of a coherent Washington consensus.
- The SEC dropped its long-running case against exchange operator Gemini, signalling a quiet retreat from enforcement-led regulation.
- BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin options ETF investment product, extending institutional exposure beyond spot products into derivatives.
- Fidelity bypassed banks to issue its own settlement rails, accelerating the shift away from legacy financial infrastructure.
- Tether moved to onshore dollar backing, reinforcing stablecoins as parallel monetary systems rather than peripheral crypto tools.
- Bitcoin’s pullback tested corporate treasury strategies as listed holders reassessed balance-sheet exposure.
- Growing institutional capital challenged the traditional halving-driven market cycle narrative.
- Record illicit crypto flows highlighted the erosion of sanctions and capital controls, potentially sharpening regulatory pressure on the sector.
Top Gainers
- HYPE (Hyperliquid) +40%
- STABLE (Stable) +31%
- CC (Canton) +27%
Top Losers
- RIVER (River) -76%
- IP (Story) -31%
- DASH (Dash) -24%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.59tn (-11.3% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 59.4% (vs 59.3% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 18/100 (vs 34 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 28/100 (vs 29 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$1.49bn (vs -$1.33bn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$327.0mn (vs -$611.2mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $84,560 (-5.5%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,709 (-7.9%) (as at Friday close)
Macro Summary
All eyes will be on Iran and US as they negotiate on nuclear weapons. The US has amassed a “beautiful armada” in waters surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has, in turn, warned that it will retaliate to any US attack “instantly”. Roughly one third of the world’s seaborne oil supply and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas transits through the strait. Oil fell on Monday following reports of renewed negotiations.
Markets will also continue to price in the new Fed’s Chair Kevin Warsh's appointment and any indication of a change in policy stance at the Fed.
On the policy side, the macro situation will be dominated by central bank events, following last week’s Fed interest rate cut. The Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to hold rates steady.
Ukraine and Russia peace talks are scheduled on Wednesday and Thursday in Abu Dhabi according to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 2 February
Economic data
- 23:50 Japan monetary base: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publishes the monetary base data for January. It measures the total amount of money in circulation, including banknotes and coins, as well as current account deposits held by financial institutions at the BoJ. The monetary base has been declining since early 2025. The last reading in December was negative 9.81%.
Crypto event (meeting)
- The White House is set to convene banking and crypto industry executives to discuss the stalled Senate crypto bill, with talks expected to focus on whether crypto firms should be allowed to pay interest or rewards on stablecoin holdings.
Tuesday 3 February
Economic data
- 15:00 US JOLTS job openings: the US publishes jobs turnover data for December. Job openings dropped by 300,000 to 7.15mn in November, below economist expectations of 7.5mn. Uncertainty around policy, particularly tariffs, has made companies hesitant to expand payrolls, leading to economic growth without strong job creation. Employers also cite AI as a factor behind hiring freezes.
Crypto event (conference)
- Ondo Summit 2026 held in New York, a one-day institutionally focused conference centered on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and the modernization of financial market infrastructure. The event will gather senior participants from traditional finance, blockchain-native firms, and institutional investors.
Company earnings
- Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY) reports earnings. The company holds a top-20 BTC digital asset treasury and top-10 ETH treasury.
Wednesday 4 February
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro Area, HICP Flash: the Euro Area reports initial inflation figures for January. Inflation measures price stability, directly aligning with the ECB's mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. Economists expect a reading of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December.
Thursday 5 February
Central Banks
- 12:00 BoE rate decision: the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes for the benchmark interest rate. Economists polled by Reuters expect the MPC to keep rates on hold at 3.75%. Inflation remains above the BoE’s target amid recent feedback from purchasing managers and retail sales data that indicated high prices.
- 13:15 ECB deposit rate: a Reuters poll of economists suggests the central bank will hold rates at 2.0%. The December inflation print of 1.9% was close to the ECB's 2% target.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/2 of Digital Assets Forum 2026 in London, an institutional-focused forum on digital assets bringing together banks, asset managers, investment funds, family offices, and infrastructure providers to discuss institutional crypto strategies, market infrastructure development, regulatory frameworks (incl. closed-door roundtables).
Company earnings
- Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) reports earnings, with markets focused on balance-sheet strategy, capital allocation, and any updates tied to its Bitcoin treasury positioning.
- IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) reports earnings; while still one of the largest Bitcoin miners by capacity, results increasingly reflect its pivot toward AI and cloud infrastructure services.
- Bullish Global, Inc. (NYSE: BLSH) reports earnings, with attention on exchange volumes, institutional participation, and market structure dynamics across spot and derivatives markets.
Friday 6 February
Economic data
- 13:30 US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes data for January. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, told reporters last week that: “In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening,” adding that “a good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.”
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Berachain (BERA) Token Unlock: 55.7mn BERA (~4% of circulating supply), worth roughly $31.50mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply, and the heavily skewed distribution toward early investors.
- Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~4.65% of circulating supply), worth roughly $52.25mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to the circulating supply.
- Hyperliquid Labs announced it will unstake and distribute 140,000 HYPE (~$4.64mn) to contributors on Feb. 6, 2026, bringing the total HYPE released into circulation to approximately 3.09mn tokens, or around 1.3% of its total allocation.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2 and conclusion of Digital Assets Forum 2026 in London.
