This Week #3 – Monday 19 January

Recap

• After months of price hesitation, Bitcoin pushed up to almost $97,900 on Wednesday, its highest level since mid-November, while Ether (ETH) rose to around $3,400 before both cryptocurrencies retreated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.4bn of net inflows over the week, the strongest since Bitcoin’s all-time high in early October, signalling renewed institutional demand.
• A survey revealed that US wealth managers are cautiously lifting crypto exposure, with a record share of advisers allocating to digital assets in 2025, mostly via ETFs and small position sizes, showing growing acceptance even as volatility, regulation, and internal compliance still cap allocations.
• Banks are pushing back against stablecoins. During Q4 earnings calls, major US retail banks warned that yield-bearing stablecoins threaten core deposits, with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan arguing they could drain lending capacity and push banks to lobby for tighter regulation.
• US crypto regulation hit a wall as the Senate Banking Committee paused a CLARITY Act mark-up scheduled for 15 Jan after Coinbase withdrew support and banks warned that stablecoin yield could drain deposits from the banking system.
• Centralized issuer control came back into focus as Tether froze $339mn of USDT on the Tron network in a targeted enforcement action, highlighting how compliance power still sits with stablecoin operators rather than users.
• Crypto infrastructure firms pushed towards the public markets and payments. BitGo filed for a US IPO near a $2bn valuation, while Polygon moved into consumer payments with a $250mn acquisition of Coinme and Sequence.
• Privacy coins had their own mini cycle as Monero jumped over 80%, Dash soared over 130%, while Zcash slid over 20% after core developers quit, pushing traders to rotate from ZEC into other alternatives. Then, on Wednesday, the SEC quietly closed its long-running securities inquiry with no enforcement action.
• In the US, inflation held at 2.7%, while the Department of Justice probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell added political risk that continues to cloud rate expectations and broader risk sentiment.

Macro Summary

The macro situation will be shaped by developments on several fronts, including a policy decision from the Bank of Japan, Europe’s ongoing response to Trump’s demands to take over Greenland, discussions over Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and all the buzz and bluster that comes with the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from the UK, Norway and six EU countries following their participation in a very limited military reconnaissance deployment in Greenland. In response, the EU is weighing retaliatory duties on €93bn of US goods that had been suspended under a previous trade agreement with Washington. The bloc is also considering activating its so-called anti-coercion instrument, or “trade bazooka” – a mechanism originally designed with the US and China in mind – that would allow Brussels to restrict companies’ access to the single market if a country seeks to pressure the EU or a member state into changing policy. EuroStoxx 50 futures were 1.5% lower on Monday while gold climbed as much as 2% to $4,690 per ounce.

In monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate at 0.75% as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi advances plans to dissolve parliament and call snap elections. Takaichi has pushed for expansionary fiscal budget for 2026 despite the yen sliding, government debt rising and inflation running high.

Despite avoiding some of the major intergovernmental meetings last year, Donald Trump is expected to attend the annual WEF junket in Davos which is held under the theme ‘A Spirit of Dialogue’. Other political attendees include Mark Carney, Friedrich Merz, Ursula von der Leyen, He Lifeng, Javier Milei, Ahmad Al Sharaa and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

This week’s macro calendar is led by inflation data, with price figures due from the Euro area, the UK, the US and Japan.

Top Gainers

• DASH (Dash) +113%
• ICP (Internet Computer) +24%
• CHZ (Chiliz) +23%

Top Losers

• LIT (Lighter) -31%
• RENDER (Render) -20%
• NIGHT (Midnight) -19%

Market Metrics

• Total Market Cap: $3.17tn (+2.3% vs last week)
• BTC Dominance: 59.0% (vs 58.5% last week)
• Fear and Greed Index: 49/100 (vs 40 last week)
• Alt Season Index: 26/100 (vs 31 last week)

ETF Flows

• BTC (Bitcoin): +$1.42bn (vs -$681.0mn previous week)
• ETH (Ether): +$479.0mn (vs -$68.6mn  previous week)

Futures (CME)

• BTC (Bitcoin): $95,665 (+5.8%) (as at Friday close)
• ETH (Ether): $3,298 (+7.2%) (as at Friday close)

This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):

Monday 19 January

Economic data

• 10:00 Euro Area, HICP: Eurostat reports inflation figures for December. Inflation measures price stability, directly aligning with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target typically guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. Economists expect the inflation figures to be 2.0%, unchanged from November.

Global event

• Day 1/5 of the WEF: world leaders from government, business, civil society and academia will convene at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Tuesday 20 January

Economic data

• 07:00 UK, Unemployment Rate: UK employment statistics, including unemployment rate and employment change, for November are published. Unemployment has been trending upwards since mid-2024 and was 5.1% in October. Steeper payroll taxes and other rising costs have led to job cuts and curbed employers’ plans to hire going forward.

Central banks

• 01:00 China, Loan Prime Rate 1Y, 5Y: the People’s Bank of China announces interest rates for January. China’s central bank said last Tuesday it plans to lower banks’ reserve requirement ratios and interest rates in 2026 to maintain ample liquidity, while continuing to pursue an appropriately accommodative monetary stance.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• LayerZero (ZRO) Token Unlock: 25.7mn ZRO (~23.13% of circulating supply), worth roughly $42.08mn. The release may introduce significant short-term selling pressure given the large share of supply entering the market at once.

Global event

• Day 2/5 of WEF.

Wednesday 21 January

Economic data

• 07:00 UK, CPI, PPI: the inflation data for December is published. November's reading was 3.2%. Bank of England’s policymaker Alan Taylor said that inflation will continue to fall: "We can now see inflation at ⁠target in mid-2026, rather than having to wait until 2027 as in our ⁠previous projection," Taylor said. "I see this ⁠as sustainable, given cooling wage growth," he added.
• 13:30 US, GDP Final: US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports final GDP Q3 estimate. Initial reading was 4.3%, up from 3.8% in Q2. The rise in GDP in the third quarter was driven by stronger consumer spending, exports and government outlays, partly offset by a decline in investment.
• 15:00 US, (Core) PCE Inflation: the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports PCE inflation for November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at annual rate of 2.7% in December.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• GateToken (GT) token unlock: 4.2mn GT (~3.55% of circulating supply), worth roughly $43.08mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.

Global event

• Day 3/5 of WEF.

Thursday 22 January

Economic data

• 23:30 Japan, CPI: December’s inflation data are due to be released, with economists forecasting a reading of 2.4%, down from 3.0% in November. The print comes before the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate decision, which is scheduled to follow just several hours later.

Global event

• Day 4/5 of WEF.

Friday 23 January

Central banks

• Japan, BoJ Rate Decision: after raising rates in December, the Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate at 0.75% at Friday’s meeting. Attention will focus on the central bank’s quarterly economic outlook. While the BoJ has signalled it is prepared to tighten policy further, policymakers are likely to move cautiously if price pressures begin to ease into the first half of 2026.

Global event

• Day 5/5 of WEF.

Sunday 25 January

Crypto event (token unlock)

• XPL (XPL) token unlock: 88.9mn XPL (~4.94% of circulating supply), worth roughly $12.99mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.