Market Snapshot
The crypto market tracked upwards from Friday as investors tentatively eased their aversion to risk. However, oil futures remain several dollars above the $100 mark at the start of this week, suggesting hopes of a more durable peace in the Middle East aren't convincing everyone.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the delicate ceasefire in the war in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US proposed to "guide" ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since the beginning of the war. Meanwhile, Tehran said it's reviewing the latest US response to the proposal to end the war while saying that no nuclear negotiations are taking place.
Following last week’s central bank bonanza, a relatively quiet week in macro data releases will be disrupted by the US labour market. JOLTS, ADP and NFP jobs data releases are scheduled to be released.
Recap
- Last week’s clutch of major central bank meetings didn’t produce any dramatic surprises. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on 29 Apr, as Chair Jerome Powell said he plans to remain on the Fed's board as a governor after stepping down.
- In corporate earnings, publicly traded Robinhood Markets’ shares dropped sharply after the trading platform reported a decline in crypto-related revenue. While privately held Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, posted a $1.04bn Q1 profit, boosting its reserves to a record $8.23bn. Sky Protocol, the decentralized finance platform formerly known as MakerDAO, posted its strongest quarter on record in the first three months of 2026.
- Decentralized lending markets continue to face renewed scrutiny over how risk is priced after the Aave protocol saw billions of dollars of withdrawals following an external exploit. Supply-demand dynamics that set rates in DeFi lending markets don’t fully account for the broader risk profile of protocols, Ledn co-founder Maurizio Di Bartolomeo told Sandmark in an interview. Onchain perpetuals protocol Wasabi was hacked for more than $5.5mn, capping the most exploit-heavy month in crypto history.
- PI, the native token of Pi Network, surged as much as 9% on the day after the network completed a key software update dubbed "Protocol 22" and moved up the timeline for its next upgrade.
- Mara Holdings’ pivot from Bitcoin miner to diversified digital infrastructure company continued. The fourth-largest listed corporate Bitcoin holder agreed to acquire Long Ridge Energy for approximately $1.5bn from Nasdaq-listed FTAI Infrastructure Inc (FIP).
- Two US Senators demanded answers over reports that Tether extended a loan to a family trust benefiting Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s children. Meanwhile, the Trump family's World Liberty Financial token continued to tank amid a governance row.
- Alex Mashinsky, known for the 2022 Celsius network collapse, was fined $10mn and permanently banned from the industry under a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
- The convergence of crypto and event betting also continues to attract congressional scrutiny. The US Senate unanimously voted to ban senators, staff and officers from trading on prediction markets.
- Dubai authorities spearheaded an international operation that dismantled at least nine alleged crypto scam centres and resulted in 276 arrests, according to a US government communication.
- In the TradFi sphere, State Street, a massive custodian of financial assets, said it’s extending its tokenization capabilities into the EU via Luxembourg. NYSE Arca, owned by Intercontinental Exchange, filed a proposed rule change with the US SEC that would create a standardized framework for listing crypto-based exchange-traded products.
Top Gainers
- B (BUILDon) +213%
- SKYAI (SKYAI) +146%
- LUNC (Terra Classic) +36%
Top Losers
- M (MemeCore) -31%
- DEXE (DeXe) -25%
- WLFI (World Liberty Financial) -22%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.61tn (-0.4% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 60.4% (vs 60% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 48/100 (vs 47 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 44/100 (vs 41 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$162.8mn (vs +$823.7mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$82.5mn (vs +$155.1mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $78,220 (+0.14%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,295.5 (-1.94%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Tuesday 5 May
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/3 of Consensus Miami 2026.
Economic data
15:00 US JOLTS job openings: The US publishes job turnover data for March. For comparison, job openings had dropped to 6.8mn in February. Uncertainty around policy measures, particularly tariffs, has made companies hesitant to expand payrolls, leading to growth without strong job creation. Artificial intelligence has also been cited by employers as a factor behind hiring freezes.
Company earnings
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD/MSTR) is expected to release its Q1 2026 financial results after market close, followed by a live video webinar at 17:00ET/21:00UTC to discuss the results.
Wednesday 6 May
Economic data
- 13:15 US ADP employment data: The US publishes ADP private employment data for April. Last month, the report showed 62,000 jobs added in March, beating forecasts of 40,000, and boosted small business hiring.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/3 of Consensus Miami 2026
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Berachain (BERA) Token Unlock: 13.3mn BERA (~5.4% of circulating supply), worth roughly $4.81mn. The cliff-style release spans investors and core contributors, introducing additional supply into circulation.
- Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~3.8% of circulating supply), worth roughly $34.15mn. The cliff-style release is distributed across ecosystem development, core contributors, investors, and the foundation, introducing notable new supply into circulation.
Thursday 7 May
Economic data
00:50 Japan Monetary base: The Bank of Japan publishes monetary base data for April, compared with a March print of -11.56%. The monetary base measures the total amount of money in circulation, including banknotes and coins, as well as current account deposits held by financial institutions at the Bank of Japan. It’s been declining since early 2025.
Central banks
00:50 The Bank of Japan releases minutes of the January monetary policy meeting.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/3 of Consensus Miami 2026
Friday 8 May
Event category
13:30 US Non-Farm payrolls, unemployment rate: The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes figures for April. For context, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented on the 4.3% March employment rate in a statement after the FOMC meeting last week that: "Job gains have remained low," Powell said. "A good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months."
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Stable (STABLE) Token Unlock: 888.9mn STABLE (~4.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $28.91mn. The cliff-style release is fully allocated to the ecosystem and community, introducing a significant amount of new supply into circulation.
