Polymarket Resolves Strategy Bitcoin Bet as No

The outcome was finalized through UMA, the decentralized oracle that settles disputed Polymarket contracts via a vote weighted by token holdings. Tokenholders upheld the platform's proposed 'No' resolution, despite Strategy's own filing showing it sold 32 BTC, worth roughly $2.5mn, between 26 and 31 May, its first Bitcoin sale since 2022.

Timing drove dispute

The Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy disclosed the sale in a 1 Jun filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a day after the contract's expiry. Polymarket argued that no information confirmed the sale within the market's timeframe, and added a clarification stating that confirmation achieved afterwards did not qualify.

That note became the focus of trader anger. Critics said the platform changed the test after heavy 'Yes' buying, when the position briefly traded around 80 cents. A pseudonymous trader known as willo2 claimed losses of about $500k, while another, 0xDinoCrypto, issued a legal demand arguing the written rules never required disclosure by the deadline.

Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.

Oracle under scrutiny

The episode renewed scrutiny of UMA's voting model, which a Wall Street Journal investigation found is dominated by a small number of large wallets, some of which hold stakes in the contracts they help resolve.

Other markets in the same series, covering sales as of 30 Jun and 31 Dec, were resolved 'Yes' without dispute, underscoring that the controversy hinged on timing rather than the sale itself. 

For prediction markets expanding towards corporate events, the case sets an early precedent on whether contracts turn on when an event occurs or when it becomes public.