This Week #2 – Monday 12 January

Recap

• Bitcoin slipped 0.6% last week, despite briefly spiking to $94,700 on Monday, trimming this year’s gain to 3.8%. Bitcoin ETFs took in about $700m in their strongest daily inflows since October, but the cryptocurrency's move was rejected at the $94k–95k resistance level, leaving the price stuck in the low-$90k range.
• Market data showed that after last year’s ETF-led selloff, non-ETF institutions have been net-buying enough Bitcoin since early December to more than absorb new issuance, shifting the market back toward a supply-constrained regime led by balance-sheet buyers rather than ETF “tourists.”
• Morgan Stanley filed to introduce its own spot Bitcoin, Ether and Solana ETFs, becoming the first large global bank to issue rather than just distribute crypto funds, while Grayscale’s ETHE ETF paid out the first US staking rewards, adding yield directly into an Ether ETF.
• Traders are cautiously reintroducing leverage, with open interest growing faster on decentralized venues than on major exchanges, signalling selective risk-on positioning rather than a full market-wide recovery.
• Bitcoin mining stocks also fared well, jumping about 20% on average to start the year, far outpacing Bitcoin itself, as investors rotated back into high-beta crypto equities after a brutal Q4 sell-off.
• Michael Saylor’s pioneering treasury firm Strategy reported a $17.4bn unrealized loss on more than 672,000 BTC as its stock premium over its holdings collapses, while MSCI paused plans to eject Bitcoin treasuries from its equities indexes but froze their weights, capping future passive inflows and leaving the “treasury trade” in limbo.
• Solana reported $1.4bn in annual network revenue and trillions in stablecoin transfer volume even as memecoin trading shrank, signalling a shift from casino-style speculation toward payments, DeFi and application usage at something close to Ethereum-scale fee levels.
• Bitcoin Core pulled its v30 release after a migration bug was found that could delete some legacy wallets when pruning is enabled, while Ledger warned a partner data breach exposed customer order details and raised phishing risks, even though devices and seed phrases remain secure.
• In Asia, South Korea announced plans to “fast-track” powers to freeze accounts suspected of market manipulation, letting regulators halt trading and withdrawals quickly as they tighten enforcement ahead of a delayed crypto capital-gains tax. Japan declared 2026 its “Digital Year Zero,” pushing to list crypto and tokenized assets on regulated exchanges so that household savings can move from cash into supervised blockchain-based investments.

Macro Summary

The macro environment will be dominated by geopolitical positioning after the US captured Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro and seized with UK support a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic. Tensions are rising in Iran as economic protests spread across the Islamic Republic. Iran’s currency, the rial, has lost about 40% since the 12-day conflict with Israel in June.

Talks continue over a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal.

Macro data releases this week include inflation figures for the US, alongside monetary statistics for China and Japan, as well as publication of the Beige Book (a summary of commentary on economic conditions) in the US.

Top Gainers

• POL (Polygon) +35%
• XMR (Monero) +34%
• RENDER (Render) +30%

Top Losers

• ZEC (Zcash) -24%
• NIGHT (Midnight) -21%
• PEPE (Pepe) -19%

Market Metrics

• Total Market Cap: $3.10tn (-0.6% vs last week)
• BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 58.5% last week)
• Fear and Greed Index: 40/100 (vs 40 last week)
• Alt Season Index: 31/100 (vs 21 last week)

ETF Flows

• BTC (Bitcoin): -$681.0mn (vs +$485.8mn previous week)
• ETH (Ether): -$68.6mn (vs +$160.6mn previous week)

Futures (CME)

• BTC (Bitcoin): $90,405 (+0.2%) (as at Friday close)
• ETH (Ether): $3,076 (-2.0%) (as at Friday close)

This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):

Monday 12 January 

Crypto event (token unlock) 

• Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.3mn APT (~1.57% of circulating supply), worth roughly $21.34mn. A significant portion of the allocation is directed to core contributors, founders, and private investors, increasing the likelihood of short-term selling pressure.

Tuesday 13 January

Economic data

• 13:30 US (Core) CPI: December’s inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (the other being unemployment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 2.7% in December.
• 23:50 Japan Broad Money, M2 Money Supply: monetary statistics for December. Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity because yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.

Wednesday 14 January

Economic data

• 13:30 US Retail Sales: the US Census Bureau publishes figures for November. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of the US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure, and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have grown 0.4% in November, up from 0.0% in October.
• China Trade Balance: figures for December. China’s trade balance is one of the most talked-about global data points as it reflects the strength of global demand and often raises discussions about China’s central role in global supply chains and sustainability of its economic model. Economists polled by Reuters expect trade balance to be $113bn in December, up from $112bn in November.
• Total Social Financing, M2 Money Supply, New Loans: China publishes state financing statistics for December. Financing data capture overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance, and broader global risk sentiment. Economists polled by Reuters expect Total Social Financing to be ¥2,000bn ($286bn) in December, down from the ¥2,490bn ($356bn) in November.

Central banks

• 19:00 US Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book. It provides qualitative insight into economic conditions across regions ahead of policy decisions.

Crypto treasury (event) 

• Bitmine's shareholders voting deadline to approve a proposal to increase authorized shares from $500mn to $50bn, enabling future capital raises, ATM issuance and strategic transactions.

Crypto event (upgrade)

• BNB Smart Chain will activate the Fermi hard fork on 14 Jan at 02:30 UTC, requiring validators to upgrade to v1.6.4 or v1.6.5 ahead of the mandatory network update. The upgrade will allow higher throughput and better execution stability on peak transaction load.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 10.0bn PUMP (~2.82% of circulating supply), worth roughly $23.51mn. A significant portion of the allocation is directed to community and ecosystem initiatives, increasing the likelihood of short-term selling pressure. 

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 1/3 of CfC St Moritz, Switzerland. The closed-door event includes C-suite speakers from Franklin Templeton, Ripple, Binance, Consensys, Solana Foundation, Animoca Brands and other companies from crypto and TradFi.

Thursday 15 January

Crypto event (corporate)

• Bitmine holds its annual shareholder meeting in Las Vegas.

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 2/3 of CfC St Moritz, Switzerland.

Crypto event (upgrade) 

• Canton Network (CC) is expected to implement emissions cut, reducing token issuance per block by 50% and lowering Super Validator rewards from 48% to 20%, reallocating emissions toward other active validators and applications. 

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Starknet (STRK) Token Unlock: 225.9mn STRK (~4.95% of circulating supply), worth roughly $19.86mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to circulating supply.

Friday 16 January

Economic data

• 07:00; 09:00 Italy, Germany HICP: Two of the largest Euro Area economies report inflation figures for December. Inflation measures price stability, directly aligning with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. Economists expect the inflation figures for Germany and Italy to be 2.0% and 1.2%, respectively, unchanged from November.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 92.6mn ARB (~1.68% of circulating supply), worth roughly $19.73mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure.

Crypto event (conference)

• Day 3/3 of CfC St Moritz, Switzerland.

Saturday 17 January

Crypto event (token unlock)

• TRUMP (TRUMP) Token Unlock: 50.0mn TRUMP (~25.00% of circulating supply), worth roughly $272mn. The release may introduce significant short-term selling pressure given the large proportion of supply entering the market at once.

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Aster (ASTER) Token Unlock: 164.7mn ASTER (~8.16% of circulating supply), worth roughly $122mn. A significant portion of the allocation is reserved for airdrops, increasing the likelihood of short-term selling pressure.

Sunday 18 January

Crypto event (token unlock)

• Ondo (ONDO) Token Unlock: 1.9bn ONDO (~61.40% of circulating supply), worth roughly $826mn. The release may introduce substantial short-term selling pressure given the exceptionally large share of supply entering the market at once.