Market Snapshot
Oil-related contracts jumped over the Easter weekend as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to throttle trade, before reports of ceasefire talks between the US, Iran and regional powers eased prices. Bitcoin finished the week well into the green, trimming its year-to-date loss to about 21%. The total crypto market is valued at about $2.36tn, compared with last year's all-time high of $4.27tn.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Hungary is set to hold parliamentary elections on 12 April. The latest polls suggest that the centre-right Tisza party is leading Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz). Over his 16-year rule, Orban has faced accusations of corruption, fraud and erosion of the rule of law while maintaining close ties with Vladimir Putin and frequently blocking EU attempts to support Ukraine.
On the macro data side, the week will be relatively quiet; investors await US inflation, jobs and GDP data.
Major traditional exchanges are closed on Easter Monday (6 April) in UK and Europe.
Recap
- DRIFT crashed 40% after a $280mn protocol exploit, highlighting persistent smart contract risk across DeFi infrastructure.
- Vitalik Buterin warned that AI could become a "security and privacy nightmare" for Ethereum, flagging emerging risks at the intersection of blockchain and AI.
- Exchange network Cboe introduced a prediction markets framework tied to mini-SPX contracts, signalling growing convergence between traditional derivatives and event-based trading. Jamie Dimon signalled US bank JPMorgan's interest in prediction markets.
- Dubai rolled out new rules for crypto derivatives trading, continuing its push to position itself as a global hub for regulated digital asset activity.
- Investment giant Franklin Templeton acquired a CoinFund spinoff to launch a dedicated crypto platform, deepening its expansion into digital asset investment infrastructure.
- Metaplanet became the third-largest listed Bitcoin holder after a 5,075 BTC purchase, showing continued corporate accumulation despite volatile market conditions.
- Google researchers warned that quantum computing poses a growing threat to crypto encryption, raising long-term concerns over blockchain security models.
Top Gainers
- ALGO (Algorand) +50%
- M (MemeCore) +26%
- VVV (Venice Token) +23%
Top Losers
- SIREN (siren) -70%
- NIGHT (Midnight) -14%
- ENA (Ethena) -10%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.36tn (+3.5% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 57.9% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 37/100 (vs 27 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 32/100 (vs 48 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$22.2mn (vs -$296.3mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$42.1mn (vs -$206.4mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $67,180 (+1.4%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $2,070.5 (+3.7%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 6 April
Crypto event (token unlock)
Ethena (ENA): The unlock releases 333.0M ENA (~3.9% of supply), worth ~$26.30mn, via a cliff event spanning ecosystem development, core contributors, investors, and foundation – introducing short-term selling pressure.
Wednesday 8 April
Central banks
- 19:00 US FOMC Minutes: the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes from the 17-18 March policy meeting when Fed policymakers decided to keep rates on hold in the target range 3.50%-3.75%.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Stable (STABLE): The unlock will release 888.9M STABLE (~4.1% of supply), worth ~$23.65mn, via a cliff event allocated to ecosystem & community – introducing short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 9 April
Economic data
- 13:30 US PCE Inflation: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) inflation for February. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at annual rate of 2.4% in February. Economists polled by Reuters expect monthly inflation reading to be 0.4%.
- 13:30 US Q4 GDP: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports final Q4 GDP estimate. Economists polled by Reuters expect reading of 0.6%, down from previous reading of 0.7%.
- 13:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 30 March will compare with a small increase of 2,000 in unemployment benefits in the prior week. The US labour market continues to provide mixed picture from the immigration shutdown, an ageing population and economic uncertainty prompting employers to be cautious with hiring.
Friday 10 April
Economic data
- 13:30 US CPI: March inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (the other being unemployment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be 0.9% in March.
- 15:00 University of Michigan Sentiment Survey: Preliminary results for the Consumer Sentiment Survey for April are published.
