Market Snapshot
Crypto assets edged higher on Monday morning, even while oil rose amid Iran war escalation concerns and Asian stocks declined. Bitcoin slipped below $65k late Sunday UTC for the first time in over a month, capping a week of declines for coins and digital-asset stocks.
Macro Summary
On the geopolitical front, the macro landscape will continue to be shaped by the Middle East. The US has deployed thousands of soldiers who might be used for a potential ground invasion in Iran. Oil prices rose on Monday as fears spread of a more intense and prolonged conflict.
On the macro data side, the week will be led by inflation figures from the euro area and Japan, retail sales, consumer confidence and employment data from US.
G7 finance and energy ministers are expected to meet virtually on Monday.
Major traditional exchanges will be closed during Good Friday and Easter Monday in UK and Europe and during Good Friday in the US, Canada and India.
Recap
- Stablecoin-issuer Circle plunged earlier in the week on concerns that policymakers working on draft market structure legislation might limit stablecoin reward opportunities.
- Mining firm MARA offloaded $1.1bn in Bitcoin to pay down debt, highlighting balance sheet stress across capital-intensive crypto operators. Strategy Inc. ramped up its stock sale programme to fund further Bitcoin purchases, reinforcing its position as the most aggressive corporate accumulator of the asset.
- Larry Fink, chair of the world's largest asset manager BlackRock, compared tokenization to the early internet, reinforcing the view that blockchain infrastructure is still in its formative phase. Wall Street nonetheless accelerated tokenization efforts beyond equities, signalling a broader push to digitize multiple asset classes across institutional portfolios.
- Franklin Templeton, another asset manager, took five ETFs onchain via Ondo, marking a significant step in integrating traditional funds with blockchain-based settlement systems.
- The nexus between trading and gambling continued to attract attention. Polymarket tightened insider trading rules amid growing scrutiny, reflecting rising pressure on prediction markets to align with financial compliance standards. Meanwhile Binance, the largest crypto exchange, called for more proactive oversight of market makers, signalling concerns around liquidity quality and trading integrity.
- The US and China diverged on stablecoin strategy, showing the growing geopolitical competition over digital financial infrastructure.
Top Gainers
- M (MemeCore) +28%
- CHZ (Chiliz) +21%
- FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance) +17%
Top Losers
- SIREN (siren) -34%
- ETHFI (ether.fi) -12%
- SEI (Sei) -12%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.28tn (-2.6% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 57.9% (vs 58.1% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 27/100 (vs 25 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 48/100 (vs 50 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$296.3mn (vs +93.1mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): -$206.4mn (vs -$60.0mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $66,180(-5.7%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,987.5 (-6.9%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 30 March
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 1/4 of ETHCC[9] in Cannes, France.
Crypto event (upgrade)
- Polymarket will expand its taker fee and maker rebate model to nearly all new markets, excluding geopolitical markets, as part of a broader update to its trading fee structure.
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area economic sentiment: Eurostat publishes the latest release for economic conditions in March, including business climate, economic, industrial and services sentiment indicators, along with final consumer confidence figures. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, noted in recent remarks that the economy grew 0.2% in Q4 2025 driven by stronger domestic demand. Households increased their spending as real incomes rose and unemployment remained close to its historical low, Lagarde said. The ECB held benchmark rates constant at its last meeting.
Government
- G7 finance and energy ministers are expected to meet virtually.
Tuesday 31 March
Economic data
- 23:30-23:50 Japan CPI, employment, retail sales data: Japan publishes key economic indicators for February and March, of which the Tokyo CPI is expected to be most impactful. Economists polled by Reuters expect core inflation, which excludes food, to be 1.8% in March, flat from February.
- 10:00 euro area HICP flash: The euro area reports flash inflation estimates for March, measuring price stability in line with the ECB’s mandate. Deviations from the ECB’s inflation target guide monetary policy decisions, including interest rate changes and liquidity measures. The prior reading of inflation was 1.9%, up from 1.7% in January.
- 15:00 US Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board publishes initial consumer confidence figures for March. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting reading of 88.0 compared with 91.2 in February. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption accounts for almost 68% of GDP.
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 2/4 of ETHCC[9]. Kaiko’s Agora flagship industry gathering, also taking place on the French Riviera, brings together institutional investors and companies focused on digital assets.
Wednesday 1 April
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 3/4 of ETHCC[9].
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Sui (SUI) Token Unlock: 9.0mn SUI (~0.23% of circulating supply), worth roughly $8.17mn. The cliff-style release is allocated to early contributors and may introduce limited short-term selling pressure.
Economic data
- 13:30 US retail sales: the U.S. Census Bureau publishes figures for February. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure, and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have grown by 0.4% in February, compared with a negative 0.2% reading in January.
Thursday 2 April
Crypto event (conference)
- Day 4/4 of ETHCC[9].
Friday 3 April
Economic data
13:30 US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the figures for March.
For context: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement after the latest FOMC meeting that "a good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months."
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Wormhole (W) Token Unlock: 1.4bn W (~25.0% of circulating supply), worth roughly $21.01mn. The cliff-style release spans ecosystem, strategic participants, and core contributors, introducing a substantial amount of new supply into circulation.
