Shares in stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) have continued to climb in recent weeks, breaking above $100 for the first time since Nov 2025 and diverging sharply from other publicly listed crypto firms. The rally follows strong fourth-quarter earnings and highlights a growing market distinction between companies generating revenue from transaction volumes and those building foundational financial infrastructure.
Circle Stock Breaks Away from Crypto Pack as Stablecoin Model Gains Traction
11 March 2026 - 20:20 CET
By Matt Neill
While exchange operators, miners and digital asset treasury companies struggle amid a prolonged downturn in Bitcoin's price, Circle's distinct business model is shielding it from the broader market chill. The shares added another 6.0% on 10 Mar, extending a rally that accelerated after the firm reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results in late February.
Circle posted Q4 revenue of $770mn and earnings per share of $0.43, exceeding Wall Street estimates and pushing the stock up as much as 36% immediately after the announcement.
(Source: TradingView)
Infrastructure layer drives analyst confidence
As the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, the company generates income largely from interest earned on the reserve assets backing the token, which are heavily invested in short-term US government securities. This approach means the company is less reliant on retail trading appetite and more aligned with traditional interest rate dynamics.
According to Bernstein analysts, stablecoins are evolving beyond crypto trading into a broader payments and financial infrastructure layer for consumers, enterprises and potentially AI agents. They raised their price target on Circle stock to $190 and reiterated an outperform rating.
The analysts highlighted that stablecoin adoption is increasingly diverging from broader crypto market cycles. They noted that USDC supply has reached a record $78bn and total dollar-backed stablecoins stand at around $270bn despite Bitcoin remaining well below its previous highs.
"As the GENIUS Act opens the floodgates for mainstream stablecoin adoption by banks, payments providers and other businesses, we believe Circle is uniquely positioned to emerge as the preferred partner," the analysts said in a note. They added that its regulatory edge, strategic partnerships, liquidity head-start and technology stack create a competitive moat that is difficult for rivals to replicate.
Regulatory outlook remains key headwind
Despite the recent share performance, the long-term outlook for stablecoin issuers remains closely tied to regulatory developments in the US. Lawmakers continue to debate legislation governing private stablecoins, including provisions within the CLARITY Act that could affect how issuers generate yield from reserve assets.
The sector has also faced pushback from traditional banking groups and regulators concerned about the role of privately issued digital dollars in the financial system.
At the same time, stablecoins have become an increasingly central component of digital markets. With USDC accounting for tens of billions of dollars in circulating supply and acting as a settlement layer across crypto trading platforms and decentralised finance applications, investors are increasingly betting on the companies building the infrastructure of digital finance rather than those tied exclusively to the volatility of underlying cryptocurrencies.
