Recap
- The crypto market closed 2025 down 7.9% at $2.93tn despite a Q1 bounce from Trump switching to a pro-crypto stance for his second term and even as a global multi-asset market rout instigated by the US President's tariffs resulted in limited damage. Institutional investors had seemed to be warming to crypto, as regulations emerged in many jurisdictions, although they finished the year with limited or mixed interest in digital assets as an alternative investment class.
- 2026 has so far started with a 5% rebound as traders shrugged off geopolitical tremors from the US-led coup in Venezuela to reverse some of the prior year's losses.
- The publication last week of the most recent US Fed FOMC minutes revealed – reading between the lines – that the Fed may pause rate cuts until later in the year. Committee members discussed the short-term funding and standing repo facility extensively, suggesting concern about the tightening of the market. Additional "modest" rate cuts may be appropriate later this year, Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and an Alternate FOMC member, said on Saturday in a separate speech.
- Following Michael Saylor's resolve to keep buying Bitcoin, despite the dismal annual performance of the asset, Metaplanet also maintained its single-strategy treasury approach by acquiring $451mn worth of BTC in the fourth quarter, it said on 31 Dec. Not everyone was convinced: Prenetics ceased purchases for its treasury.
- Cantor Fitzgerald predicted a harsh correction for early 2026, suggesting Bitcoin could test support levels as low as $75k.
- Tax authorities in the UK and European Union started collecting information on their populations' crypto assets on 1 Jan, as part of the international Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) that will eventually involve dozens of countries in cross-border data exchange.
- South Korea advanced plans to limit the size of shareholder stakes in exchanges, while Belgium implemented a 10% tax on realized capital gains, including cryptocurrencies, effective 1 Jan. Iran offered to sell weapon systems for payments in cryptocurrencies, the Financial Times reported.
Macro Summary
The macro environment will be shaped by the fallout from the capture of Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, as markets assess the fallout of the US's weekend military action. Maduro was taken to New York to face federal charges, including narcoterrorism.
Oil price slipped on Monday following the action. Venezuela holds largest proven reserves in the world but hasn't been able to capitalize on them due to the poor management, lack of investment, corruption and shortage of technical expertise.
The operation, which the US administration has deemed a success, has put other countries including (previously threatened) Greenland on notice as potential next targets. Other geopolitical issues include ongoing negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine and conflict in Yemen.
Macro data releases this week include inflation figures for the euro area and China, alongside labour market and economic sentiment indicators from the United States.
Top Gainers
- PEPE (Pepe) +72%
- MYX (MYX Finance) +67%
- RENDER (Render) +51%
Top Losers
- XMR (Monero) -7.7%
- UNI (Uniswap) -6.0%
- ZEC (Zcash) -5.3%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.12tn (+3.3% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 59.1% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 40/100 (vs 30 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 21/100 (vs 18 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$485.8mn (vs -$782.0mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$160.6mn (vs -$102.4mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $90,190 (+2.5%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $3,139 (+6.5%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 5 January
Economic data
15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI: the print will compare with November's lowest reading in four months.
Tuesday 6 January
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~4.65% of circulating supply), worth roughly $80mn. The release may introduce short-term selling pressure given the size of the unlock relative to the circulating supply.
Wednesday 7 January
Economic data
- 10:00 Euro area, HICP inflation: Eurostat publishes harmonized inflation figures for December.
13:15; 15:00 US ADP and JOLTS employment data: US publishes ADP private employment data for December and jobs turnover (JOLTS) data for November.
Friday 9 January
Economic data
- 01:30 China, CPI: China publishes inflation data for December.
- 13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December.
- 15:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment: preliminary results for the survey for January.
