Market Snapshot
Bitcoin continued its July zeal, posting a fourth weekly 'green candle' in a row and returning the original cryptocurrency to mid-June levels of around $65,300. Ether followed suit, as is often the trend, flirting with the $2,000 mark, which represents a near-30% turnaround for ETH since the end of June. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 index recorded its second-straight down week as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on investors' decisions, exacerbated further by a Brent oil futures market that swung in a 19% range between Monday and Friday.
Macro Summary
On the macro front, the week will be dominated by policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. All three central banks are expected to leave their main interest rate unchanged.
The geopolitical landscape will continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East after the US and Iran escalated attacks, sending Brent crude oil futures back to close to $100 per barrel.
On the macro data side, the US will publish consumer confidence and labour-market figures, while the euro area releases GDP and inflation data and Japan reports inflation, employment and retail sales.
Recap
- An ethics dispute in the US Congress has focused Senators on whether the CLARITY Act, a delayed market structure bill, should prevent the president, members of Congress and their families from profiting from digital assets while in office. Although a new version of the bill was proposed on 22 Jul, time is running short, with the Senate set to begin a five-week recess on 10 Aug.
- SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who heads the regulator's crypto taskforce, said some crypto vaults and onchain lending strategies may fall under federal securities laws rather than rules used for other asset classes.
- While crypto traders are following the legislative developments closely, assets are also trading around the macroeconomic agenda. BTC slipped on 23 Jul after stronger-than-expected US labour market data ahead of the forthcoming Fed interest rate decision.
- The market continues to test different products to pull more investors into the space. A new digital asset benchmark introduced by S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) and Pantera Capital, a digital asset investment firm, screens constituents on protocol revenue, not market capitalization alone. Meanwhile, Grayscale, a digital asset manager, submitted a regulatory filing to produce a spot exchange-traded fund based on Worldcoin, the token linked to Sam Altman's WorldID proof-of-human initiative. Days after, World Foundation said it had raised $52.5mn through a sale of locked WLD tokens led by Pantera Capital.
- Some platform providers are on the way out, though. BitMEX, which invented the perpetual swap that once dominated crypto derivatives trading, said it would close operations on 23 Sept and requested users to withdraw funds. On 23 Jul the exchange operator was also hit with a lawsuit accusing it of engineering liquidations to claim customer collateral.
- Kalshi, a prediction market platform provider, added 3mn users during the competition, while more than $1.2bn traded on its World Cup winner contract. Rival venue Polymarket's equivalent market recorded $4.28bn.
Top Gainers
- BEAT (Audiera) +52%
- SHIB (Shiba Inu) +23%
- ONDO (Ondo) +21%
Top Losers
- NIGHT (Midnight) -26%
- PI (Pi) -14%
- PYTH (Pyth Network) -12%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.23tn (+0.90% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.7% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 40/100 (vs 35 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 54/100 (vs 50 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$33.9mn (vs +$75.5mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$174.5mn (vs +$105.5mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $64,130 (-0.20%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,859 (+0.73%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 27 July
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Grass (GRASS) Token Unlock: 33.4mn GRASS (~5.3% of circulating supply), worth roughly $11.87mn. The cliff-style release is concentrated among early investors and contributors, potentially introducing moderate short-term selling pressure.
Tuesday 28 July
Economic data
- 14:00 US Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board is set to release the latest consumer confidence data, following an improvement in economic sentiment to 91.2 in June from 90.6 in May. The indicator is expected to stagnate with a forecast reading of 91.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock: 9.9mn HYPE (~4.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $581mn. The release is allocated to current and future core contributors. Despite its large dollar value, previous contributor unlocks have generated limited spot selling, suggesting muted immediate pressure unless recipient behaviour changes.
Wednesday 29 July
Central banks
- 18:00 US Federal Reserve rate decision: The Federal Open Market Committee announces its policy decision, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30. The benchmark rate is expected to remain at 3.5%-3.75%. Markets will focus on how policymakers balance persistent inflation against signs of slower growth.
Crypto event (protocol upgrade)
- Polygon will activate the Ithaca hard fork, designed to strengthen network stability and payment reliability across Polygon PoS.
Thursday 30 July
Economic data
- 08:00 Germany GDP: Europe's largest economy publishes its preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate.
- 09:00 Euro area GDP, unemployment, economic sentiment and consumer confidence: Eurostat publishes preliminary second-quarter GDP alongside June unemployment and July sentiment indicators. GDP growth of 0.1% on the quarter is forecast after a 0.2% contraction, with unemployment expected to remain unchanged at 6.2%.
- 12:00 Germany HICP preliminary: Germany publishes July inflation estimates.
- 12:30 US GDP, PCE inflation and unemployment claims: The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the advance second-quarter GDP estimate and June PCE inflation, while the Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims.
- 23:30 to 23:50 Japan CPI, employment and retail sales: Japan publishes the unemployment rate, jobs-to-applicants ratio, Tokyo inflation and June retail sales. Unemployment is expected to remain at 2.5%, Tokyo core inflation to rise to 1.8% from 1.6% and annual retail sales growth to slow to 2.3% from 5.3% according to figures published by Trading Economics.
Central banks
- 11:00 Bank of England rate decision: The Monetary Policy Committee announces Bank Rate and publishes its Monetary Policy Report, meeting minutes and vote split. Bank Rate is expected to remain at 3.75%.
Friday 31 July
Economic data
- 01:30 China NBS Manufacturing PMI: China publishes its official manufacturing survey for July. June's 50.3 reading was marginally above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
- 06:45 to 09:00 France, Italy and euro area HICP preliminary: France and Italy publish national inflation estimates before Eurostat releases the euro area flash reading. Euro area headline inflation is forecast to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%.
- 14:00 US University of Michigan Sentiment Survey: Final July consumer sentiment results are published. The final reading is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate of 54.4, up from 49.5 in June.
Central banks
- 03:00 Bank of Japan rate decision: The Bank of Japan announces its policy decision and publishes its quarterly outlook report. The policy rate is expected to remain at 1.00%.
Saturday 1 August
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Audiera (BEAT) Token Unlock: 21.3mn BEAT (~6.9% of circulating supply), worth roughly $75.54mn. The cliff-style release spans marketing and operations, community, and foundation allocations. Given BEAT’s high volatility and engineered market making, the unlock could generate significant short-term price pressure.
