Standard Chartered has told clients it expects AAVE, the native token of the Aave protocol, to outperform both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) over the next four years. In a note published on 24 Jun, the bank forecast that the token will climb roughly 50x to $3,500 by end-2030.
The bullish call comes just over two months after Aave faced one of the largest security-related stress tests in its history, when attackers used $292mn in tokens stolen from KelpDAO, another decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, as collateral on an Aave lending market, exposing the protocol to potential losses of up to $230mn.
The incident triggered a wave of withdrawals, with Aave's total value locked (TVL) falling from $44bn to $23bn in a few days, according to Standard Chartered. Its dominance in DeFi lending also eroded, with its share of sector deposits dropping from 59% in late 2025 to 38% by mid-2026.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, said Aave had "moved past the April cybertheft incident as assets start to return to the platform." With recovery under way, the bank argues the platform is well-placed to benefit from an expected influx of tokenized assets into DeFi protocols.
DeFi on the Rise
The report draws comparisons between Aave's business model and traditional banking, noting that around 90% of its income comes from net interest margin. The bank describes Aave as "an on-chain bank that runs without employees, downtime or discretionary decision-making."
According to Standard Chartered, the business model is relatively straightforward: more deposits mean more lending, more fees and, roughly in proportion, a higher token price. The report forecast Aave's token price to reach $180 by the end of 2026.
Kendrick expects the value of assets active in DeFi to grow 37x by the end of 2030, driven by rising stablecoin and tokenized-asset market caps alongside a broader crypto market recovery. He projects the share of tokenized assets deployed in DeFi to rise from 3.5% to 30% over the same period.
A potential restart of Aave's token buyback programme was flagged as a further tailwind.
Proposed market structures.
The forecast may be supported by a proposal published on X on 20 Jun by Aave founder Stani Kulechov, who outlined a plan to bring tokenized securities onto the platform.
Kulechov noted that the US repo market alone processes about $12.6tn on an average day, and that securities lending involves roughly $4.6tn of assets. He argued that blockchains can settle securities faster and at lower cost, without the settlement constraints of traditional markets.
"The best way to move it onchain is to get the market structure right," he wrote, outlining two approaches. One uses a single liquidity hub with shared settlement and collateral infrastructure across asset categories. The other has several hubs, each scoped to a specific asset category and risk profile.
"Improving that market structure is what Aave V4 is built to do, and the onchain rails are already at scale," he wrote.
Scaling horizon
Both Standard Chartered's forecast and Kulechov's proposal depend on Aave Horizon, a platform launched in August 2025 that allows institutions to borrow against tokenized assets such as money-market funds reissued as blockchain tokens. Take-up has been slow: loans stood at just $163mn by the end of May.
"Scaling Aave Horizon will require significant commercialisation of Aave and strong partnerships with TradFi players. This is achievable but not yet proven," the report noted. Clearer guidance from US regulators was cited as a potential catalyst.
"We think this can be achieved, allowing Aave's share of the DeFi lending market to recover back towards the previous highs," Standard Chartered said.
AAVE traded at nearly $73 at 17:37UTC on 24 Jun, up 2.5% over the previous 24 hours. The gain offered some relief after a steep year-long decline, with the token still down 72% over the past 12 months.
