After a volatile and underwhelming October, Bitcoin enters November with sentiment fragile but technicals resetting. The question now isn’t what went wrong with “Uptober,” but what the current structure says about the next sustained move.
Bitcoin’s November Setup: Positioning for the Next Move
4 November 2025 - 18:00 CET
SOPR
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin holders are realizing profits or losses when they move their coins. It does this by comparing the selling price of a coin (when it’s spent) to its purchase price (when it was acquired).
Because not all holders behave the same way, SOPR can be segmented by holder type. Short-term holders (STHs), those who acquired their coins recently, tend to be more price-sensitive and reactive to market movements than long-term holders (LTHs).
The 30-day Short-Term Holder SOPR (SOPR 30) isolates profit and loss realization among coins held for 30 days or less, effectively capturing the behavior of new or reactive market participants.
Chart
The October liquidation cleared out excessive leverage and pushed short-term holders deep into loss. CoinMetrics data show the 30-day Short-Term Holder SOPR (SOPR 30) at 0.86, meaning coins are being sold around 14% below cost. Historically, such readings mark exhaustion points rather than the start of deeper downtrends.
This suggests the market has reached a zone where selling pressure tends to fade. If long-term holders remain steady, new bids at lower levels could set the foundation for recovery.
Max pain
In options markets, Max Pain represents the strike price at which the largest number of open call and put options would expire worthless, causing the maximum loss for option buyers and the maximum profit for option sellers. In practice, it often acts as a gravitational level around expiry, as market makers and hedgers adjust positions to minimize losses.
Options data from Coinglass show max pain levels clustering around $106,000, $110,000, and $112,000 across November and December expiries. These levels often act as short-term magnets as hedging flows converge around them.
While not predictive on their own, the current alignment of max pain levels suggests that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the near term before attempting a breakout.
Derivatives paint a cautious rebuild
Perpetual futures data add weight to that view. After collapsing to 1.3% annualised following the 10 Oct crash, Bitcoin’s funding rate has normalised near 6.8%. That’s far from euphoric, but enough to show traders are cautiously rebuilding long exposure.
With perpetual volumes now exceeding spot by more than four times, these marginal shifts carry weight. The current funding structure shows the market stabilising rather than overheating. Favorable funding rates, while moderate, are at least a sign of balance: bear markets typically see sustained negative readings when traders are net short.
Outlook: watching for confirmation
If past cycles are a guide, November’s early weakness could mark the end of the reset phase rather than the start of a new slide. For confirmation, watch for three things: rising SOPR, a funding-rate push toward 10%, and consistent ETF inflows. Together, they’d signal returning risk appetite.
The broader backdrop, Fed liquidity injections, easing credit conditions, and seasonal strength into year-end, still favours the bulls. The challenge is timing: the market appears to be rebuilding conviction slowly, not chasing it.
Bitcoin may not deliver fireworks immediately, but the fuel for the next move is quietly being restocked.
