Bitcoin's market reset has continued since March, but the outcome remains caught between correction and capitulation. As of 20 Jul, Bitcoin traded near $64,100, roughly 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126k. The asset is now 287 days removed from that peak, compared with 165 days when our onchain analysis was last published on 20 Mar.
Bitcoin’s Onchain Reset Deepened, but Capitulation Never Arrived
20 July 2026 - 13:11 CEST
The drawdown briefly became more severe in June. Bitcoin fell to approximately $58,500 on 30 Jun, taking the peak-to-trough decline beyond 53%. It has since recovered around 11%, but remains roughly 8% below its 20 Mar level. Onchain data shows that the market has moved further through the reset process. Valuations became materially cheaper and short-term holder positioning improved. Yet, Bitcoin still avoided the deepest conditions historically associated with cyclical bottoms.
MVRV entered deeper value, but not capitulation
Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with the aggregate cost basis of its circulating supply. It effectively measures how far the market is trading above or below what holders paid for their coins. MVRV currently stands near 1.23, down from approximately 1.30 on 20 Mar. That places Bitcoin in a clearer value regime than it occupied four months ago, but still above the levels associated with broad market losses and forced capitulation.
The more important development occurred on 30 Jun. As Bitcoin fell toward $58,500, MVRV declined to approximately 1.10. That was considerably closer to the realized-price threshold and confirmed that the market had progressed beyond the relatively shallow reset visible in March.
Chart
Source: Coinmetrics
The metric nevertheless remained above 1.0. Even at the June low, Bitcoin traded around 10% above the aggregate realized price. The market therefore entered historically attractive territory without reaching the conditions that have accompanied the strongest long-term accumulation opportunities.
Readings below 1.2 have historically produced positive forward returns across longer time horizons, although short-term performance can remain volatile. Moves below 1.0 have been more reliable because they indicate that the average coin is held at an unrealized loss. Bitcoin came closer to that threshold, but did not cross it.
Short-term holder resistance has moved sharply lower
The most important structural change has occurred in the short-term holder realized price. Short-term holders are generally defined as investors controlling coins moved within the previous 155 days. Their average acquisition price often acts as support during bull markets and resistance during bearish periods.
On 20 Mar, the short-term holder realized price stood near $84,200. Bitcoin was trading around 16% below that level, leaving a large pool of recent buyers underwater and creating a significant break-even overhang. That cost basis has since fallen to approximately $68,000, a decline of more than 19%. Bitcoin now trades only around 4.6% below it.
Chart
Source: Coinmetrics
This does not necessarily mean the original short-term holders have recovered their losses. The cohort itself changes over time. Older coins leave the short-term holder classification after 155 days, while transactions completed at lower prices enter the calculation. The falling cost basis therefore reflects both investor capitulation and the gradual replacement of higher-priced buyers with a lower-priced cohort. The resistance level has effectively migrated from the mid-$80,000s to the high-$60,000s.
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the short-term holder realized price between 2 May and 15 May. At the 10 May local high near $82,300, the asset traded almost 5% above the cohort's cost basis. The recovery failed to hold, however, and the price subsequently fell back below the metric. That failed reclaim reinforces the short-term holder realized price's role as a market-regime indicator. A temporary move above the level is insufficient. Bitcoin must remain above it long enough for recent buyers to return to profit and for the former supply overhang to become support.
Market is closer to a decision point
The onchain picture is more constructive than it was in March, but not decisively bullish. Bitcoin has already experienced the deeper valuation reset that the earlier analysis warned remained possible. MVRV fell from 1.30 to as low as 1.10, the drawdown exceeded 53%, and the short-term holder cost basis declined by more than $16,000. The market nevertheless avoided aggregate capitulation. MVRV never fell below 1.0, the price did not reach the realized price, and the June sell-off was absorbed before the average holder moved underwater.
The next major test sits near the $68,000 short-term holder realized price. A sustained reclaim would indicate that the market has absorbed the supply from recent buyers and may be transitioning from correction into re-accumulation. Another rejection would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed weakness, with realized price near $53,000 remaining the principal onchain downside reference.
The March conclusion still broadly holds, but with an important qualification: the market has now reset considerably further. Bitcoin is no longer merely approaching value territory. It has traded through it. What remains absent is the final capitulation signal that has historically marked the most durable cyclical bottoms.
