Crypto asset manager 21Shares has backed away from one of its boldest forecasts for 2026, saying that Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle still remains intact and that it now sees the largest cryptocurrency ending the year nearing $100,000 instead of setting new highs.
21Shares Cuts Forecasts for Most of Crypto, Now Sees Bitcoin at $100k by Year-End
25 June 2026 - 23:41 CEST
By Ana Pereira
Heading into 2026, 21Shares had said it thought that Bitcoin's four-year cycle could be at an end. Now, in a mid-year update to its annual outlook, the firm says that the cycle is still intact, though evolving. Bitcoin's more than 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of about $126,000 continues to resemble previous post-halving cycles, the report said, even as institutional ownership has made the market more resilient than in past downturns.
"ETF ownership is increasingly institutional and the current drawdown of roughly 50% remains far milder than the 80%+ bear markets of prior cycles," the report said.
Bitcoin traded at around $59,500 at 20:29UTC on 25 Jun, down nearly 32% this year and extending a negative trend amid macroeconomic concerns over inflation. So far, the cryptocurrency has avoided "the outright capitulation that defined earlier downturns," 21Shares said, pointing out that Bitcoin has not traded below its aggregate cost basis of $54,000. "These are signs of a more mature market with stickier capital flows," the report said.
Bull case delayed
The revised Bitcoin outlook formed part of a broader reassessment of several bullish predictions made at the start of the year.
21Shares no longer expects global crypto exchange-traded product assets to reach $400bn this year after assets under management fell to about $140bn by the end of May. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $469mn on 24 Jun as the cryptocurrency broke below the $60,000 level.
Net assets in US spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to $73.9bn in June from a peak of $147.7bn in October, and are down nearly 31% since the start of the year, according to SoSoValue data.
The firm also pushed back its forecast for stablecoin supply to reach $1tn, saying circulation has grown to roughly $320bn and is now more likely to finish the year between $400bn and $600bn.
Meanwhile, decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked remains around $140bn, less than half of its more than $300bn target, after more than $840mn was lost across over 50 exploits in the first five months of the year. The report did not issue a new forecast for year-end DeFi TVL, though it did say it now expects the acceleration it had predicted for 2026 would now more likely happen in 2027.
Some calls unchanged
Not all of the firm's predictions have weakened.
21Shares said prediction markets are now on course to comfortably exceed its original forecast of $100bn in annual trading volume after processing $57.5bn through the end of May. It also said consolidation among Ethereum scaling networks has unfolded largely as expected, while AI-powered blockchain infrastructure, such as AI agents for trading, has advanced faster than anticipated.
