Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed sharply over the past two weeks, rising from around $70,000 on 12 Apr toward the psychologically important $80,000 level – a threshold that has drawn keen attention from both retail traders and institutional investors in recent cycles.
Bitcoin Nears $80,000 as Short-Term Sellers Split
27 April 2026 - 14:00 CEST
The rally has lifted overall market profitability, pushed the price close to key onchain cost-basis levels, and coincided with renewed institutional demand through US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This rebound naturally raises questions about holder behaviour. Are recent buyers cashing out at breakeven or better? Onchain data show the picture is more nuanced than a simple wave of profit-taking, with different groups reacting in distinct ways.
SOPR signals mixed behaviour
A metric known as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks whether Bitcoin being moved on the blockchain is sold at a profit (above 1.0) or a loss (below 1.0). It provides a clear window into whether investors are realizing gains or losses when they transact.
Breaking SOPR down by holding periods reveals a split market. Over the past two weeks, as Bitcoin rose more than 8%, the 30-day SOPR climbed from 1.04 to 1.14 and stayed above 1.0 on 13 of 14 days. This means the most recent buyers have consistently sold into strength, expanding their realized profits from about 4% to 14%.
The broader short-term groups tell a different story:
- 90-day SOPR rose from 0.79 to 0.89 but remained below 1.0 every day.
- 155-day SOPR increased from 0.73 to 0.86, still below breakeven.
Holders in the 155-day cohort improved from realizing roughly 27% losses to 13.6% losses, yet they have not reached profitability. Even the 1-year SOPR stayed below 1.0 throughout the period. This pattern shows that while the newest buyers are taking profits, older short-term and medium-term holders continue to sell at a loss to reduce exposure.
Chart
Source: Coinmetrics
Supply dynamics shift toward balance
Broader profitability metrics also improved markedly during the same window. Supply in profit rose by 289,000 BTC (+2.3%), while supply in loss fell by 284,000 BTC (–3.8%). Unrealized profit grew by $62bn (+11%) and unrealized loss shrank by $43bn (–23%). The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric – which measures overall market sentiment based on unrealized gains and losses – rose from 0.258 to 0.307.
These figures indicate healthier market conditions as previously underwater positions move back into profit. However, the improvement also expands the pool of potential sellers. Roughly 7.17mn BTC remain in loss even after the rally, and sub-1.0 SOPR readings across longer short-term cohorts confirm that residual supply from higher price levels has not yet been fully absorbed.
The chart illustrates this divergence clearly, plotting BTC price against SOPR lines for different cohorts. It highlights how the shortest-term group has moved decisively into profit while longer cohorts lag, creating a layered transition in market behaviour.
Derivatives markets add further context. Perpetual funding rates turned negative on 12 of the 14 days, dropping from +0.024% to –0.117%. This means short sellers were paying long holders to maintain positions, suggesting the rally was not fuelled by excessive long leverage. Instead, the positioning appears skewed toward shorts, potentially providing a tailwind as covering activity adds buying pressure during upward moves.
Supporting the price action, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $14.4mn (+184 BTC) on 24 Apr, contributing to a cumulative total exceeding $58.97bn since inception.
Market remains in transition phase
Bitcoin’s push toward $80,000 has been met with two-sided flows rather than aggressive distribution. The shortest-term holders are realizing gains, while broader short-term cohorts are still exiting at a loss. Improving profitability is gradually rebuilding seller supply, but the market has not yet cleared all overhead pressure.
The critical threshold to watch is the 155-day SOPR crossing and holding above 1.0. Such a move would indicate that the full short-term holder base has returned to profitability – a condition historically associated with more sustainable uptrends.
In a base-case scenario, sustained levels near $80,000 combined with ongoing ETF demand could accelerate this shift and support further upside. A risk case of stalled momentum or sharp pullback, however, would likely prolong the absorption phase and keep longer cohorts selling at a loss.
Until the key SOPR threshold is cleared, the data point to an ongoing repair phase where rallies continue to serve primarily as opportunities to distribute older supply.
