Political Bets Cost Polymarket Ground in Asia

Betting on resignations

Indonesia blocked the platform on 22 May, citing online gambling laws. The Jakarta Post and other local outlets reported that the action came within two days of Polymarket opening a contract on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term ends in 2029. Resolution dates included 31 May, 30 Jun and 31 Dec, well before the end of Prabowo's term. The government said it would also track social media accounts promoting the platform, after the contract drew online attention.

Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs did not respond to a request for comment on whether the Prabowo contract was a factor in the decision to block the platform.

South Korea opened a formal regulatory review the same day, with the Korea Communications Standards Commission examining whether Polymarket constitutes illegal gambling. The review centres on several contracts tied to the country's June local elections that are currently live on the platform.

Taiwan was the first in the region to act, blocking access in December 2023 after users began wagering on the outcome of the January 2024 presidential election. A user who placed bets on presidential and legislative outcomes was subsequently charged, fined and given deferred prosecution. The political trigger was unambiguous: under Taiwanese law, betting on political events is explicitly prohibited. 

Gambling laws, crypto bans

For other governments in the region, the objection is broader. Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority ordered local internet service providers to block access in January 2025, treating Polymarket as one of many unlicenced offshore betting platforms, regardless of what it was taking bets on. 

Thailand's cybercrime investigation bureau followed suit the same week, framing the ban around cryptocurrency-based gambling rather than the content of specific contracts. Both countries now appear on Polymarket's geographic restrictions list as "close-only": existing positions can be wound down, but no new trades are permitted.

The pressure extends beyond Asia. Ella Seijsener, director of the Netherlands' gambling authority KSA, said prediction markets "offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by licence holders", after the regulator imposed a penalty order on Polymarket in February. 

In April, Brazil's Finance Ministry directed the telecom regulator, Anatel, to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. Officials concluded that contracts on sports, politics and cultural outcomes were not covered by the country's betting framework.

China slips, Japan lobbies

China is a different case entirely. Polymarket is inaccessible there not because of any platform-specific action, but as a by-product of the country's broader internet controls and crypto restrictions. 

Yet Chinese users have continued to access the platform via VPNs, and Polymarket has been courting them, hiring Mandarin-speaking staff and listing China-focused contracts, including a market on which robot brands would appear at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, which recorded around $74,000 in trading volume. Trading volume from Asia-based users runs in the "hundreds of millions" of dollars a month, Justin Yang, who leads Polymarket's go-to-market strategy in Asia, told Rest of World in March.

Japan stands apart from all of them. As Sandmark previously reported, Polymarket has named a local representative and is lobbying for regulatory approval by 2030, viewing the country as a large untapped opportunity. 

Prediction markets currently occupy an undefined legal status in Japan, where they are neither licenced nor explicitly prohibited. Allowing them to operate at scale would likely require lawmakers to create a new regulatory category or amend existing legislation. Polymarket's lobbying push will likely focus on persuading the Financial Services Agency to treat prediction contracts as financial derivatives subject to regulation, rather than as gambling. If that argument lands, it could become a template for the rest of the region.