Hyperliquid plans to let outside developers launch prediction markets through its HIP-4 framework, potentially turning the decentralized exchange's large derivatives user base into a distribution channel for event-based trading.
Hyperliquid Takes Different Route into Prediction Markets, Opens Rails to Builders
20 July 2026 - 21:14 CEST
By Jona Jaupi
The change would distinguish Hyperliquid from standalone prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Rather than building an audience from scratch, developers could offer markets directly to traders already using Hyperliquid for spot and perpetual futures.
Permissionless deployment will be introduced in a future network upgrade, first on testnet and later on mainnet, Hyperliquid said on 19 Jul, without providing a specific launch date. While Kalshi and Polymarket choose the contracts available on their platforms, Hyperliquid plans to let third-party developers create and operate markets using its trading infrastructure.
Hyperliquid processed about $188.5bn in perpetual futures volume over the past 30 days and holds $11.14bn in open interest, according to DeFiLlama. Its total value locked stands at $6.07bn as of 20 Jul, giving the platform substantially more existing trading activity than prediction market platforms.
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 has so far recorded about $273mn in trading volume and attracted 15,700 unique traders since launching on mainnet in May, according to LorIs Tools. Markets on Argentina and Spain winning the World Cup generated about $27.6mn in combined volume.
Opening the framework to outside developers could accelerate that growth by removing Hyperliquid as the sole gatekeeper for individual markets and compete with the selection available on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Other crypto platforms are also expanding into prediction markets. Exchange Gemini offers event contracts directly as part of its exchange, while the Base network provides blockchain infrastructure on which independent developers can build prediction-market applications. Hyperliquid's proposed model falls between the two, allowing outside developers to deploy markets through its protocol while using its existing execution system and trader base.
A different model
Prediction market activity reached a monthly record in June. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US recorded about $47.7bn in combined notional trading volume, according to Sandmark calculations based on Dune Analytics data.
Kalshi accounted for $33bn of the total, while Polymarket recorded $10.7bn and Polymarket US generated about $4bn.
Hyperliquid remains far smaller in prediction markets, but its model integrates event contracts with its existing crypto trading venue. Users can trade event outcomes alongside spot assets and perpetual futures without transferring capital to another platform.
According to Token Terminal data, Hyperliquid recorded over 319,000 users over the past month.
How the upgrade works
HIP-4 currently offers markets tied to Bitcoin prices, inflation data, and sports. However, those markets are selected and launched by Hyperliquid validators, limiting both the number of listings and the speed at which new events can be added.
With the new upgrade, validators will approve outcome templates, but outside developers will be able to use those templates to launch individual markets themselves. Hyperliquid said permissionless deployment is needed to support a much wider range of outcomes.
More than one developer will be allowed to launch a market covering the same event, meaning traders could face competing markets with different liquidity, pricing or settlement terms.
Hyperliquid said these "canonical" markets should ideally represent fewer than 10 outcomes or questions each year.
High barrier to entry
Restrictions remain with the upgrade as validators will still control which templates can be used. The 500,000-HYPE staking requirement could also strongly limit how many developers participate. HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
The stake was worth about $30.5mn based on HYPE's price of $61, as of 16:12UTC on 20 Jul. The stake will remain locked for six months and can be slashed by validator vote if a market is poorly defined, settled incorrectly or left incorrectly unsettled for more than a week, Hyperliquid said. Deployers must settle all their markets before withdrawing the stake.
Developers will eventually be able to receive up to 50% of the fees from their markets. Only tokens that meet Hyperliquid's standards can be used for HIP-4 markets.
Hyperliquid cautioned that the plans could change before permissionless deployment launches on testnet.
